Sizing up value of expert advice

Sizing up value of expert advice

You see them on TV, you read their columns and interviews, you
attend their lectures and seminars, but at some point you feel
enough is enough. Call them experts, pundits, analysts, observers
-- their opinions can be invaluable, but they may come with a
price tag. The Jakarta Post team Ahmad Junaidi, Budiman
Moerdijat, Devi M. Asmarani, Kosasih Deradjat, Stevie Emilia and
photographer Arief Suhardiman tries to answer some of the
questions on those with the answers.

JAKARTA (JP): Turmoil and newfound freedom have brought a new
era of "punditry" to the country as people from all walks of life
are braver about speaking their mind.

The experts go a step further by putting in print or speaking
in public forums on their solutions for what ails Indonesia.

With recent simmering political tension, however, many are
wondering whether they offer solutions or merely aggravate the
situation.

Ask that to noted talk-show host and public affairs
commentator Wimar Witoelar, and he will readily defend his peers.

"The very people who say that punditry brings more confusion
rather than solutions are probably those who contribute to the
confusion."

He blamed the authorities -- the government and the Armed
Forces -- for exacerbating confusion in the country, with the
experts on hand to try to put things right.

Senior social and political observer Mochtar Buchori drew a
distinction between "pseudo pundits" and their "genuine"
colleagues.

Distinguishing between them lies in their analysis.

"I think if we are not careful, we will all hold the opinion
of pseudo pundits, not the real pundit," Mochtar said.

"If you can give an analysis regarding the present situation
and later your analysis is validated by a development in the
future... then you are a real pundit."

Those worthy of being called experts are few, he added.

It is particularly true in politics, a field lacking any
scientific criteria to gauge the value of an opinion.

Some lay the blame on the media for thrusting self-styled
experts into the spotlight, and then distorting their opinions by
"misquoting".

A senior political observer who insisted on anonymity argued
the media contributed the most to both clarity and confusion in
the country.

"The media is responsible for selecting somebody
representative enough to be called an expert or a pundit."

The media's tendency to use only selected snippets of
interviews with experts also leads to miscommunication, he said.

"If you print partial interviews then you are also responsible
in creating the confusion, and if you do not pursue your question
exhaustively then it is also your fault."

Credibility

There is also the question of credibility.

Some experts freely comment on everything, even on issues
outside their authority.

After Soeharto stepped down in May at the height of the reform
wave, many economists preferred commenting on politics to the
economy.

But there is always the big turnoff of conflict of interest
which, unfortunately, casts a question mark on the objectivity of
many.

Market analyst Theo Toemeon is one of the most sought-after
experts in the country. Yet one could have good reason to suspect
him of vested interests because he has accumulated wealth from
being active in the money market.

Other economists own and run their own consulting firms, and
their commentary on particular cases could be called into
question.

Some pundits prefer politics to making money.

Economists Faisal Basri and Kwik Kwian Gie and Mochtar Buchori
are among those who have recently emerged as political figures,
but whose voice of authority in their fields of expertise remains
somewhat credible.

Faisal is the secretary-general of the National Mandate Party
(PAN), while Kwik and Mochtar are active in the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan).

They may be tracking the same career path of their senior
counterparts, such as the leader of Nadhlatul Ulama Muslim
organization, Abdurrahman Wahid, and PAN's chairman Amien Rais.
Both have been nominated for the presidency by their parties.

The two important opposition leaders ascended to their lofty
positions after debuts as political observers.

Wimar believes it is always necessary to have impartial
observers or pundits.

"Observers should not be embroiled in day-to-day political
event," he warns.

Inevitably, objectivity takes a backseat when experts join the
ranks of the bureaucracy.

Prominent political scientist Dewi Fortuna Anwar may be
counted among them after she was tipped by President B.J. Habibie
to become his spokeswoman.

Personal thrills

Despite the war of opinions between experts, noted political
columnist Soedjati Djiwandono expressed delight that newfound
freedom could nurture the nation's passion to express itself.

"Democracy is a learning process, even on how to use freedom.
How to respect the kind of freedom that is also enjoyed by
everybody else is also a learning process."

What makes people want to put their reputations on the line by
declaring themselves experts?

Soedjati cited the ability to disseminate his ideas through
columns in publications and speaking engagements at public
forums.

"When I do speak on politics or when I write... I do it out
of my conviction... so the more people who subscribe to my
views, the happier I am."

Wimar said he wanted to do his part to contribute to the
country's dynamic changes.

"At a certain point, you don't have much choice. If you're in
the middle of a very fluid changing situation, you feel that
people expect something of you and that if you resist then you're
not contributing even a small part to changes in our society."

However, his fee for sharing his wisdom at speaking
engagements and TV appearance ranges "from nothing to Rp 12
million (US$1,300)." (team)