Six-way nuclear talks, round two

The Asahi Shimbun, Tokyo

Six-way talks between the United States, both Koreas, China, Japan and Russia over North Korea's nuclear development program got under way in Beijing on Wednesday.

With the Chinese government as facilitator, in the six months since the last talks, a great deal of effort has gone into setting the table for an agreement that would satisfy all parties. It is hoped that concrete and substantive headway will be made at the negotiations.

But complications have arisen concerning the North's nuclear development program since the last talks. Not only has the North owned up to a plutonium-based project, but there is good reason to believe there is another plan as well to develop nuclear weapons with highly enriched uranium.

Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan's nuclear program, has testified that he handed over technology for uranium enrichment to North Korea. Information from the U.S. suggests Khan himself visited the North about a dozen times. Long suspected of existing, the U.S. is pressing the North to come clean about its uranium-based nuclear development in the light of Khan's testimony. Though the North vehemently denies the allegation, we cannot take it at its word.

The purpose of the six-way talks is clear: To bring about a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula by diplomatic means and build a framework for peace and stability in Northeast Asia. We find ourselves just at the beginning of this long road. Now we have to take the first step forward.

That will require, first of all, that the North, as a sign of its commitment, express the intention to completely scrap its nuclear arms and programs and immediately freeze all action related to nuclear development.

The problem with the development of uranium-based nuclear weapons is that it's easy to get the raw materials, but hard for someone on the outside to know if they are being developed. If the North conceals what it's doing, or is deceitful about its actions, the talks by the six countries will be strained and the possibility of achieving a breakthrough will fade from view.

If, on the other hand, the North demonstrates sincerity, the U.S. and the others will act to eliminate the North's security concerns. The crux of the talks this time centers around how to strike a bargain on this point.

American government officials argue that North Korea should follow the example of Libya, which ended its nuclear development and began to improve relations with the U.S. However, it will not be easy for North Korea to lay down its arms unless it believes that at what stage the U.S. will remove it from its list of countries that sponsor terrorism and begin to improve its ties with the North.

In preparation for the six-way talks, Japan, the U.S. and South Korea all adjusted their positions. And China, North Korea's biggest supporter, is also trying seriously to stop the North's nuclear development.

For Japan, the six-party negotiations in Beijing are an important forum for talking about the Japanese abductees. While it may be misguided to hold out hope for a breakthrough, some progress must be made which will lead to an advance in the next bilateral talk.

It would be wishful thinking on the North's part to suppose it can gain an advantage by biding its time until after the U.S. presidential election in the fall. Even if the Democratic Party, whose administration signed an accord with the North 10 years ago, wins the election, its policy will not differ in essentials from that of the present administration.

The Democrats are painfully aware of the agreement's failure. Only the North will suffer in the eyes of the world if it attempts to stonewall at the next talks. And Japanese public opinion in favor of exerting pressure against North Korea will grow even stronger.

The tragic conditions in North Korea-food shortages and the state of the economy in general, among other things-amply demonstrate that time is running out for the North.