Six possible successors of President Lee in 2000

TAIPEI (JP): Journalists are always interested in political horse races, sometimes to the detriment of deeper analyses of issues.

Nevertheless, the following is a "morning line" or early straw poll result of formal and informal talks this past week in Taipei on who are the likely candidates to succeed President Lee in the 2000 elections:

* Chen Shui-ban, 46, the Mayor of Taipei, has plenty of successful public works projects in his favor. He is on the leading edge of a seeming merger of mainstream KMT-DPP elements while "old guard" KMT elements are represented by the marginal New Party. The latter has powerful voices in the vernacular United Daily News and China Times, run by one-time KMT "old boys". President Lee is backed by the rising Liberty Times while Chen and the rest of the DPP have media clout in cable television circles.

* Lien Chan, 61, is vice president and prime minister and Lee's obvious heir apparent, until recently. Constitutional revisions and street protests may lead to his resignation as prime minister. In fact, the president has promised Lien will step down once reform is achieved. His popularity has sagged lately but lack of charisma is offset by continued backing by Lee. Lien is Taiwan-born and the son of one of Taiwan's richest families which counts in a political climate based heavily on money and place of birth.

* James Soong, 55, in winning the post of Provincial Governor in 1993 received more votes than any politician except the president in his 1996 race. Soong balked at Lee's plans to downgrade provincial government and resigned. But his resignation has not been accepted and his star seems to be rising again as Lien's falls. Born on the mainland, Soong has overcome this stigma by shaking more hands around the country than any politician in a grassroots campaign that smacks more of New York than Taiwan.

* Ma Ying-jeou, 46, still has the boyish good looks he exhibited as a recent Harvard graduate serving as interpreter to Chiang Ching-kuo during an interview of the late president in the Japanese-built Presidential Office Building in 1982. His popularity rivals that of movie and rock idols, particularly among young Taiwanese ladies and housewives. He says he has retired from politics but President Lee counts Ma as one of his favorites. Ma was born in Hong Kong and has a reputation as being a good administrator.

* Vincent Siew, 58, is another favorite of President Lee's with special emphasis on economic matters, including increased cooperation with Japan. It is predicted that Siew may get the premiership when Lien vacates the post after completion of constitutional reform. If Siew falters, Soong is considered a possible premier.

* Wu Poh-siung, 58, a key player in transforming KMT from "Party of Chiang Kai-shek and Chiang Ching-kuo" to "Party of Lee Teng-hui". Regarded as the president's right-hand man and most trusted aide, he lacks charisma and international aura. But his popularity could increase depending on timing and performance or the lack of it by other contenders.

Chen, Siew and Wu are the only front-runners without Ph.D degrees from U.S. universities. (Edward Neilan)