Sitorus dreams of controlling weather

Tarko Sudiarno, The Jakarta Post, Yogyakarta

Upon seeing the massive floods inundate much of Jakarta last January, Baginda Patar Sitorus' heart sank.

But looking on the bright side, Sitorus, chief of the Cloud Seeding Unit of the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT), the flood proved his idea was credible.

Just shortly before the floods, his idea to control weather was rejected by the Jakarta city administration and ridiculed by many fellow scientists.

Sitorus recalls if his concept, called "weather modification technology", had been accepted, he is sure BPPT would have been able to avert the floods by means of regulating the rainfall around the city of Jakarta.

"Even more saddening was that only after the deluge submerged much of Jakarta were we asked to implement the concept. It would take 10 days to implement this concept but after five days of work we were told to stop. More rains caused further flooding after a few days' break," he says.

He said that after only the first day of the implementation of this technology, the result was already visible. Jakarta weather was clear and fine.

"I was sad that the government stopped the project based on input from weather experts who were worried that the technique would only divert the rains to cities around Jakarta, which was not true.

"The input was given by experts who only sit at their desks. We are people who work in the field and know the actual situation."

Indeed BPPT's cloud seeding unit has often become a target of ridicule by weather experts from universities despite its success stories.

In 1996, BPPT experts were successful in their cloud-seeding project to provide water for West Java's main reservoirs. Then in 1997 they managed to minimize forest fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan with artificial rain.

Now, the team are seeding clouds in some places in Central Java and Yogyakarta, where they are scheduled to work for 20 days.

Sitorus is one of only a few Indonesians specializing in cloud seeding. He began to learn it at BPPT 20 years ago. His local and overseas training has sharpened his expertise.

A 1977 mechanical engineering graduate from North Sumatra University, Medan, he specialized in weather modification technology for tropical areas like Indonesia.

"The technology is different from that applied in China or Thailand. Ours is more simple," said Sitorus, who was born in North Sumatra in 1949.

Sitorus's work does look simple. By only observing the clouds in the sky, whether from the ground or airborne, Sitorus can recognize which clouds have the potential to make rain. Then he will quickly decide which clouds have to be dispersed with the flight movement of an aircraft or which must be have seeding powder scattered over them.

Of course, he is well-versed in the characteristics of clouds. "The clouds over Java are different in shape and characteristics from those found over Sumatra and Kalimantan. Obviously, each cloud needs a specific type of handling," he said.

"My colleagues and I must know well the characteristics of a cloud as otherwise we may find ourselves in trouble as the cloud may 'swallow' our own aircraft."

He recounted an incident when a team of 10 junior researchers on board a Dakota aircraft showed their daring by entering a cumulus cloud. The moment the aircraft entered the cloud, it was suddenly lifted from a height of 6,000 feet to 16,000 feet. All the researchers passed out and were still unconscious when the aircraft had landed.

"Only the pilot and the co-pilot were strong enough to stand the turbulence and did not faint," he recalls.

As for cloud seeding, Sitorus has found a technology simpler than what has been previously used.

"We used to need various substances such as urea fertilizer, for example. Now we need only salt and active lime for cloud seeding. This technology will shortly be patented," he says.

Although the formula needs only salt and lime, the procedure to turn the two substances into a soft powder that can float in the air is complex.

"We actually need another substances when we grind the substances so that the mixture will not harden when it is stored. We aim to keep this additional substance secret pending the patent for our cloud-seeding technology. But the two important substances are active lime and salt. They are not hazardous to the environment and are easy to obtain. Also, they are quite cheap."

Sitorus sees bright prospects for weather modification technology in Indonesia. It may play an important role in the prevention of natural disasters caused by the climate and weather, especially given global climate changes.

If the technology can be widely applied in Indonesia, he says, then people may not have to worry about irregular climatic changes.

"We can boost agriculture because we can regulate the weather. It will rain according to our wishes," he says. "It is now time to predict the weather in a modern way. The changes in the global climate has rendered all the existing weather theories and science obsolete," he stressed.

Major floods can be averted, seasonal forest fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan can be contained with artificial rain.

"Isn't it ridiculous that to extinguish the fires ravaging a large forest area you rely only on water being showered from an aircraft? How much water can an aircraft carry? Not much. Even when the water has been dropped, it will be just like a drizzle on the ground. Cloud-seeding technology is the only way to put out a fire of such magnitude.

In fact many weather experts who look down upon the technology that Sitorus has introduced have begun to understand and praise this technology.

Sitorus tells humorous stories about the recognition of the technology's effectiveness. He recalls that some government officials asked him to stop his project because they were afraid that excessive rain would fall in their areas.

Once, prior to an anniversary celebration of a special military force in West Java, a general forced him to stop his cloud-seeding project as it would disrupt the event. In Bandung, objections came from a traditional rain shaman who feared he would lose clients in competing with modern technology.

"The technology has scared not only generals but also shamans," he quips.