Sino-U.S. summit for better regional stability
Sino-U.S. summit for better regional stability
By Rizal Sukma
JAKARTA (JP): China's President Jiang Zemin is scheduled to
visit the United States next week for a summit with President
Bill Clinton. It is widely expected that the meeting will be
fruitful and yield significant results, benefiting not only the
two countries concerned but also the wider Asia-Pacific region.
Such an expectation is indeed natural due to the fact that
many regional countries acknowledge the strategic importance of
good Sino-American relations to the stability of the Asia-Pacific
region.
Over the last few years, Sino-U.S. ties have been strained
by a number of problems. On the one hand, the U.S. continuously
raise what it regards as violations of human rights in China, and
puts pressure on the Beijing leadership to improve its record on
this issue. Washington also links China's human rights record to
other questions, such as trade.
This is manifested in the annual review of China's Most-
favored Nations status. Washington also has some concerns over
China's policy of arms sales. Then there is the question of U.S.
support for Taiwan, which continues to irritate Beijing.
On the other hand, China sees Washington's attitude toward
such issues as a new form of containment. For example, Beijing
repeatedly accuses Washington of trying to subvert China's
modernization and prevent it from becoming a major power.
Recently, Beijing-Washington relations became strained further
by differences of opinion over the new guidelines of the Japan-
U.S. security arrangements announced Sept. 23.
There is a growing concern in Beijing that the renewed
security alliance might represent another attempt by the U.S.,
together with Japan, to contain China's growing influence in the
Asia-Pacific region in particular and in the world in general.
Despite Prime Minister Hashimoto's assurance that Japan-U.S.
military cooperation is not targeted at any specific country,
China remains cautious. In this regard, it is especially
concerned about what it sees as the possibility that the scope of
the renewed guidelines may also cover Taiwan.
For other countries in the region, such an accumulation of
problems in the relationship between the two major powers is
worrying.
It is a geopolitical fact that stable relationships between
China, Japan, and the U.S. constitute the most important pillars
in the maintenance of stability and peace in the Asia-Pacific
region.
For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN),
strained relations between China on the one hand and the U.S. and
Japan on the other might not be conducive to the Association's
attempts to shape a more predictable regional order in the
region.
It could bring many difficulties for ASEAN in implementing its
role as "the primary driving force" of the ASEAN Regional Forum
(ARF). Worse, it could have undesirable impacts on the ARF
process itself, in that it could prevent the Forum from
progressing.
However, there has been grounds for optimism. Firstly, China
seems to indicate that it is really keen and prepared to improve
bilateral ties with the U.S. This, for example, can be seen from
the attempts by China's leaders to create a positive atmosphere
prior to the summit.
China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Shen Guofang has expressed
his government's confidence that after President Jiang's visit
"bilateral relations will experience progress."
The same expectation has also been aired by China's Foreign
Minister Qian Qichen, when he said that the results of the 15th
Chinese Communist Party Congress would "facilitate the
preparations for the U.S. visit," most notably in "fostering a
new relationship with Washington" (South China Morning Post,
Sept. 25, 1997).
Secondly, the U.S. has also displayed a greater tendency to be
more reconciliatory. For example, Washington has invited Beijing
to take part in talks on its revised security arrangement with
Japan.
Such an attitude is welcome by many in Asia, because there has
been the impression that the U.S. was not too keen in trying to
explain it to the Chinese.
It was Japan which took the trouble to explain and try to
allay regional fears over the revised guideline, especially to
the Chinese. It is hoped that when the U.S. also takes an active
part in explaining the guidelines to the Chinese, some
misunderstandings can be ironed out.
The most promising sign for an improvement in Sino-U.S. ties
came from the news that both sides are now on the verge of
signing an agreement designed to prevent armed clashes between
their navies.
The accord would set up a mechanism whereby the two sides
could cooperate to defuse any potential flare-up when U.S. and
Chinese vessels cross paths in Asian waters (South China Morning
Post, Oct. 9, 1997).
It is expected that the agreement will be announced during the
Jiang-Clinton summit next week. If it materializes, it will
constitute one of the most important elements in the process of
confidence-building measures between the two major powers.
However, there are still a number of issues which may halt
major breakthroughs in the summit. First, China has raised its
concerns over the plan by certain groups in Washington to stage a
demonstration against President Jiang.
Secondly, China remains suspicious of the revised guidelines
of U.S.-Japan security arrangements despite the apparent
openness. China's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Shen Guofang,
dismissed Japan's explanation as "unconvincing".
Thirdly, much has to be done before both sides can agree on
the arms non-proliferation issue. The U.S. still maintains that
China has not given unequivocal assurance that it does not
present a threat on this issue for the U.S.
All in all, the overall atmosphere of the forthcoming Sino-
U.S. summit is promising. China and the U.S. have recognized the
existence of many opportunities upon which more beneficial
bilateral relations can be based.
More importantly, both sides have recognized regional concerns
that the state of Beijing-Washington relations has significant
impacts on regional stability.
The writer is a researcher at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, Jakarta.