Sino-U.S. summit for better regional stability

By Rizal Sukma

JAKARTA (JP): China's President Jiang Zemin is scheduled to visit the United States next week for a summit with President Bill Clinton. It is widely expected that the meeting will be fruitful and yield significant results, benefiting not only the two countries concerned but also the wider Asia-Pacific region.

Such an expectation is indeed natural due to the fact that many regional countries acknowledge the strategic importance of good Sino-American relations to the stability of the Asia-Pacific region.

Over the last few years, Sino-U.S. ties have been strained by a number of problems. On the one hand, the U.S. continuously raise what it regards as violations of human rights in China, and puts pressure on the Beijing leadership to improve its record on this issue. Washington also links China's human rights record to other questions, such as trade.

This is manifested in the annual review of China's Most- favored Nations status. Washington also has some concerns over China's policy of arms sales. Then there is the question of U.S. support for Taiwan, which continues to irritate Beijing.

On the other hand, China sees Washington's attitude toward such issues as a new form of containment. For example, Beijing repeatedly accuses Washington of trying to subvert China's modernization and prevent it from becoming a major power.

Recently, Beijing-Washington relations became strained further by differences of opinion over the new guidelines of the Japan- U.S. security arrangements announced Sept. 23.

There is a growing concern in Beijing that the renewed security alliance might represent another attempt by the U.S., together with Japan, to contain China's growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region in particular and in the world in general.

Despite Prime Minister Hashimoto's assurance that Japan-U.S. military cooperation is not targeted at any specific country, China remains cautious. In this regard, it is especially concerned about what it sees as the possibility that the scope of the renewed guidelines may also cover Taiwan.

For other countries in the region, such an accumulation of problems in the relationship between the two major powers is worrying.

It is a geopolitical fact that stable relationships between China, Japan, and the U.S. constitute the most important pillars in the maintenance of stability and peace in the Asia-Pacific region.

For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), strained relations between China on the one hand and the U.S. and Japan on the other might not be conducive to the Association's attempts to shape a more predictable regional order in the region.

It could bring many difficulties for ASEAN in implementing its role as "the primary driving force" of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). Worse, it could have undesirable impacts on the ARF process itself, in that it could prevent the Forum from progressing.

However, there has been grounds for optimism. Firstly, China seems to indicate that it is really keen and prepared to improve bilateral ties with the U.S. This, for example, can be seen from the attempts by China's leaders to create a positive atmosphere prior to the summit.

China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Shen Guofang has expressed his government's confidence that after President Jiang's visit "bilateral relations will experience progress."

The same expectation has also been aired by China's Foreign Minister Qian Qichen, when he said that the results of the 15th Chinese Communist Party Congress would "facilitate the preparations for the U.S. visit," most notably in "fostering a new relationship with Washington" (South China Morning Post, Sept. 25, 1997).

Secondly, the U.S. has also displayed a greater tendency to be more reconciliatory. For example, Washington has invited Beijing to take part in talks on its revised security arrangement with Japan.

Such an attitude is welcome by many in Asia, because there has been the impression that the U.S. was not too keen in trying to explain it to the Chinese.

It was Japan which took the trouble to explain and try to allay regional fears over the revised guideline, especially to the Chinese. It is hoped that when the U.S. also takes an active part in explaining the guidelines to the Chinese, some misunderstandings can be ironed out.

The most promising sign for an improvement in Sino-U.S. ties came from the news that both sides are now on the verge of signing an agreement designed to prevent armed clashes between their navies.

The accord would set up a mechanism whereby the two sides could cooperate to defuse any potential flare-up when U.S. and Chinese vessels cross paths in Asian waters (South China Morning Post, Oct. 9, 1997).

It is expected that the agreement will be announced during the Jiang-Clinton summit next week. If it materializes, it will constitute one of the most important elements in the process of confidence-building measures between the two major powers.

However, there are still a number of issues which may halt major breakthroughs in the summit. First, China has raised its concerns over the plan by certain groups in Washington to stage a demonstration against President Jiang.

Secondly, China remains suspicious of the revised guidelines of U.S.-Japan security arrangements despite the apparent openness. China's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Shen Guofang, dismissed Japan's explanation as "unconvincing".

Thirdly, much has to be done before both sides can agree on the arms non-proliferation issue. The U.S. still maintains that China has not given unequivocal assurance that it does not present a threat on this issue for the U.S.

All in all, the overall atmosphere of the forthcoming Sino- U.S. summit is promising. China and the U.S. have recognized the existence of many opportunities upon which more beneficial bilateral relations can be based.

More importantly, both sides have recognized regional concerns that the state of Beijing-Washington relations has significant impacts on regional stability.

The writer is a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.