Singh forgets the cardinal rules

P. Jayaram, The Straits Times/Asia News Network, Singapore

Pundits say there are two rules that a politician should never forget: Timing is everything; and collective survival is more important than that of an individual leader.

But it is precisely those two cardinal rules that India's discredited foreign minister, K. Natwar Singh, who was relieved of his post on Monday (Nov 7), clearly forgot. Natwar Singh, who retains his seat in the Cabinet as a minister without portfolio, has become the first high-profile casualty of the Volcker report which named him as a "beneficiary" of the UN's corruption-tainted oil-for-food scandal, along with the ruling Congress party.

With the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party threatening to make the Volcker report a lightning rod with which to strike the government, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress party president Sonia Gandhi were left with no choice but to strip the foreign minister of his position.

Natwar Singh, an old loyalist of the Nehru-Gandhi family, has been reportedly assured that he can reclaim his job once a judicial commission appointed by the government to investigate the scandal has cleared his name.

But observers noted that such promises mean little in the quicksand of Indian politics.

The minister is only too aware of impermanence in politics, having spent nearly a decade out of power before the Congress-led coalition government took office 18 months ago after a surprise election win.

That perhaps explains why he clung on to his post even as the writing on the wall became clear. The career diplomat-turned- politician had not concealed his ambition to be the foreign minister. His refusal to quit put the government in a difficult situation.

The fact that the Congress party also had been named as a beneficiary of Iraq's illegal oil sales made it imperative for the government to take action.

Natwar Singh's position became untenable after the government appointed an independent probe into the Volcker committee's report. In desperation, he made a series of foreign policy pronouncements during his interaction with the media that made it virtually impossible for the Prime Minister to retain him.

Natwar Singh declared that India would revise its vote at the International Atomic Energy Commission if a new resolution pushed for referring Iran's nuclear issue to the Security Council. Manmohan Singh was reportedly 'livid' as it ran contrary to the government's carefully crafted policy on non-proliferation.

Gandhi's aversion to a scandal that maligns her party's name also hastened Natwar Singh's departure. That aversion stems from the Bofors gun scandal that brought down the government led by her husband Rajiv Gandhi in 1989, although no evidence of his involvement in the deal was ever found.

The Prime Minister will hold the external affairs portfolio for the time being. The stage is now set for a long-awaited Cabinet reshuffle which sources say may take place after Nov 15 when he returns from the South Asia summit in Dhaka.

He asserted that the Natwar Singh episode will not have any impact on the government or the party.

"Our image has not been spoilt," he said.

But with several senior leaders eyeing the coveted post of external affairs minister, inner party rivalry is expected to intensify.