Signs to watch for in RI polls

Signs to watch for in RI polls

Stanley A. Weiss, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

Voters in Indonesia, which has the world's largest Muslim
population, will soon choose their own president. However, next
year's direct election is not as simple as it seems.

Under the new election law, only parties that receive more
than 5 percent of the vote in next April's parliamentary election
can field a presidential candidate in the general election
several months later. To win the presidency, a candidate must
receive a majority of the national vote and more than 20 percent
of the vote in at least half of Indonesia's 30 provinces --
effectively ruling out all but the two major parties.

How to make sense of it all? And what will the outcome mean
for the future of this democracy-in-progress?

Here are five signs to watch for.

First, will we see a mother-and-child reunion? The country's
largest party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI
Perjuangan) hopes President Megawati Soekarnoputri can hold on to
power. However, accused of betraying the cause of reform in favor
of business and military interests, Ibu Mega ("Mother Mega") has
lost the love of her student and activist supporters.

The election is still Megawati's to lose. Watch for whether
she continues to side with the entrenched elite or wins back her
disenchanted supporters by returning to her reformasi roots.

Or will there be a "go-straight-to-jail" card for Akbar
Tandjung? It was once a foregone conclusion that Golkar, the
second largest party and the political vehicle of the former
Soeharto dictatorship, would nominate its powerful boss, Akbar.
However, convicted of corruption, he now awaits his appeal to the
Supreme Court.

A legal victory for Akbar will clear the path to his party's
nomination. However, electoral victory is unlikely to follow. The
public are fed up with corruption, of which Akbar is now the
poster child.

Third, will we see a new face for Golkar? A Supreme Court
ruling against Akbar will send him straight to jail and force
Golkar to find a new standard bearer. Among the 19 contenders
there are three to watch.

Gen. Wiranto, the last armed forces chief under Soeharto,
hopes Indonesians will overlook past human rights abuses. Now a
crooner of love songs, the "singing general" serenades voters as
the law-and-order strongman who will save the nation.

Coordinating Minister of People's Welfare Yusuf Kalla is
widely admired for ending Muslim-Christian warfare in the Maluku
islands, but he is not a native of Java, home to two-thirds of
Indonesian voters. In contrast, Yogyakarta Governor Sultan
Hamengku Buwono X is revered on the mainland as the last of the
Java kings, but has little appeal in the provinces.

Polls show a geographically balanced Sultan-Yusuf ticket
crushing Megawati.

Fourth, watch out for an Islamic kingmaker. Neither Megawati
nor Golkar is expected to win an outright majority in the first
round of voting. Barring an unlikely Megawati-Golkar alliance
that would lock up the election, the race will be on to forge a
winning coalition in the run-off. Three smaller Islamic-oriented
parties may emerge as potential kingmakers.

Former president Abdurrahman Wahid remains the leader of the
National Awakening Party (PKB) and retains the support of the 40
million-member Nahdlatul Ulama, the country's largest Muslim
socio-political organization.

Amien Rais, speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly and
leader of the National Mandate Party (PAN), has the support of
the second largest Muslim organization, the 30-million-strong
Muhammadiyah. Watch if Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah can
overcome old rivalries and unite behind a single Islamic
candidate.

Hamzah Haz, the current Vice-President and leader of the
largest Muslim political party, the United Development Party
(PPP), said he will not spurn offers of an Islamic coalition.

Last, what about wild cards? After two major terrorist attacks
in as many years, politicians like Amien and Hamzah who have
flirted with Islamic radicals are finished in moderate Indonesia.
Indeed, the two major parties may yet find their winning ticket
in some unusual places.

If Megawati dumps Hamzah, watch retired army general Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono, now Coordinating Minister for Political and
Security Affairs and popular for overseeing the military
crackdown on the rebellious Aceh province. His selection as vice-
president will be a signal that Megawati intends to defer to the
military.

Golkar may find its salvation in Nurcholish Madjid, a moderate
Muslim scholar beloved by Indonesians. Although he declined to
seek the Golkar presidential nomination, he would make a popular
running mate and useful cover should a Golkar administration and
its military allies intensify the crackdown on Islamic militants.

Will Mother Mega keep her children in line? Will Akbar stay
out of jail? Will Sultan-Kalla be the unbeatable duo? Will
Islamic parties anoint the winner? Will wild cards shake up the
system?

One outcome is certain. Five years removed from the
dictatorship that ruled this nation for three decades, the
competition is a healthy sign that Indonesia is taking another
step towards being the world's third largest democracy.

And that is something to watch -- and cheer.

The writer is founder and chairman of Business Executives for
National Security, a non-partisan organization based in
Washington. This is a personal comment.