Showdown in Jerusalem?

Most reports from Jerusalem yesterday talked of a possible showdown in the eastern part of the ancient city. Israeli soldiers were on stand by as the government of Benjamin Netanyahu pushed ahead with a groundbreaking ceremony for a project to build 6,500 new homes in the disputed territory.

Tension has been escalating in the area which Jews call Har Homa and Arabs call Jabal Abu Ghneim. The tough talking that both the Israeli government and the Palestinian leaders have been engaged in recently makes a showdown look inevitable.

One, or both of them, must back down to defuse the tension. At this late stage of development, no amount of international appeal or pressure from anyone -- the Security Council, the General Assembly or the United States have already tried to no avail -- on either the Palestinians or the Israelis is likely to achieve much. They are on their own.

An outbreak of violence over the thorny housing project would not likely end then and there. Violence breeds violence. A showdown will turn back the Middle East peace process, which has been virtually dead on its tracks for nearly a year, and could eventually plunge the region into renewed turmoil. The consequence is far beyond anyone's imagination.

Can the Israeli and Palestinian leaders really afford to turn back on their commitments after achieving so much under the present peace agreement? Is the risk, by averting negotiations, worth the price that they, or their people, will have to pay? Have they not paid dearly enough with the loss of their loved ones these past 30 years?

Prime Minister Netanyahu has denied Palestinian President Yasser Arafat the few remaining negotiating cards by declaring that Jerusalem will remain undivided as Israel's capital. The Palestinians want to make East Jerusalem -- predominantly populated by Arab Moslems, Christians and Jews -- capital of their unborn independent state. East Jerusalem was to have been discussed as part of the final status talks in the peace agreement. Now, nobody can be certain the talks will take place.

Netanyahu has probably calculated the political and security risks that his government is taking by going ahead with the housing project. Ever since he was elected to office in June last year, Netanyahu has been trying to test Arafat's patience. The housing project is simply the latest maneuver his right-wing government has conducted to renege on promises and concessions the previous Labor government gave in return for peace assurances. But there is a limit to the patience of Arafat and the Palestinian people. By giving in to the demands of the extremist elements among Israelis, Netanyahu, whether knowingly or not, is breeding extremism among Palestinians.

While the onus to prevent a showdown is on both Israelis and Palestinians, the ball is in the Israeli's court. It is up to them to pressure the Israeli government to return to the negotiating table and discuss the problems. This may be a lengthy process, and probably no less uncertain than the current path of simply building new settlements, but at least it is peaceful.