Should Abdurrahman be going to Australia?

Should Abdurrahman be going to Australia?

By Irawan Abidin

JAKARTA (JP): There have been debates on whether President
Abdurrahman Wahid should be going to Australia and if so, when?
The debate, unfortunately, has generated more heat than light
when, to the mind of this observer, there is a perfectly rational
way of arriving at an answer.

If President Wahid does go to Australia in January, as has
been publicly intimated recently, the best things that can happen
are as follows:

Instantly, the rift between Australia and Indonesia is mended,
the wrinkles of misunderstanding are smoothed over and both
countries resume being friends and cooperators.

There may be all sorts of demonstrations against Indonesia
during the visit, but there will be no incidents of a sufficient
magnitude to embarrass the visiting President.

The many members of the Australian press that are habitually
critical of Indonesia, in deference to the visiting President,
will tone down their criticisms and may even observe a
moratorium. The NGOs likewise take a moderate tone on Indonesia.

Indonesian misgivings on the current enhancement of the
Australian military establishment are allayed and there is a
general surge of goodwill between the two peoples.

Trade and investment and other forms of economic cooperation
between the two countries begin to pick up.

All these, of course, are possible. And the gains of such a
successful state visit are tremendous. But in this real world
many things can go wrong. Wisdom dictates that the risks should
be considered.

Some of the bad things that can happen during the projected
visit are as follows:

The Australian mass media could welcome the Indonesian
President with a barrage of criticisms and attacks on his
policies, style of governing and the Indonesian handling of the
militia problem in East Timor, and whatever else they can think
of. The Australian government would be totally unable to prevent
that hostile barrage if the media decided to launch it.

Demonstrations of NGOs and other groups rabidly hostile to
Indonesia could turn out to be unruly and could even get out of
hand, to the discomfort and possible embarrassment of the
visiting President.

If there is even a small incident, it could be magnified to
extreme proportions by the media. There would be an angry
reaction among the loyal followers of Abdurrahman in Indonesia,
which the media would also sensationalize.

Because the visit would then be considerably unsuccessful,
blame would be tossed back and forth between the two countries,
not between the two governments, but between groups of hotheads
in the two countries. Instead of improving, relations between the
two countries further deteriorate.

That is, of course, the worst-case scenario. But considering
that Indonesia has not had a streak of good luck during the past
several years, the risk is real that it could happen.

Still, the gains of a successful state visit, which is always
possible, are extraordinary and President Wahid is nothing if not
a man courageous enough to take risks for worthy gains. He should
not be overly criticized for desiring to make that state visit in
the near future.

But to be perfectly rational about the matter, there is a way
of achieving the same tremendous gains without incurring the
attendant enormous risks. Here is how it could be done:

Both governments announce that President Abdurrahman Wahid
will definitely go to Australian -- but not very soon. The visit
will take place at some time in the future, decided by the two
governments together.

In the meantime both governments are willing to be patient and
work on their relationship at various other levels of
interaction. It is made clear that the option of a state visit
remains open, but it will only be taken when both governments
have laid sufficient foundation to ensure its success. It is
important that both governments make the announcement together.

Dialogue at various other levels is then broadened and
intensified. A good occasion to launch that effort is the
forthcoming Australia-Indonesia Ministerial Forum (during which
the proposed joint announcement could be made).

During that event and at every opportunity afterwards, both
sides consciously and deliberately strive to exchange positive
statements that reflect a determined effort to improve relations
and enhance cooperation.

This will not stop the critics of both governments, but a
general public that has not taken sides against either government
will at least be given a chance to discern that something
positive and welcome is taking place. Moreover, the dialogue
could lead to some effective goodwill and mutually beneficial
initiatives.

The two governments then wage a publicity campaign aimed at
the general public in both countries to report and promote that
intensified dialogue.

Again this will not stop the critics but at least there will
be a body of good news to counterbalance the "bad views" being
expressed. This will take some expense and the use of some
professional skills but it would be worth it.

Both sides build on every little progress that is made in this
effort.

If all goes well, it may turn out over time that there is no
need for President Wahid to go to Australia to mend relations
with that country. If he does go, it would be for another
purpose: to firm up what is already a growing, positive
relationship.

At any rate he keeps the option of making that visit -- to be
exercised when there is everything to gain and nothing to risk.

The writer is a Foreign Service veteran who has been
Indonesian Ambassador to Athens and then to the Holy See. He has
also served two terms as Director of Information of the
Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.