Short-term survival, long-term problems

Wimar Witoelar, InterMatrix Communications, Jakarta

The success of the state power company PLN in concluding renegotiations on the Paiton I and Paiton II steam power plant deserves high praise. It is good news for everyone. With the agreement, the Java - Bali power system gained access to additional power and averted Java from a power crisis in 2004. Considering the lengthy negotiations and complications which have saddled the case for years, the agreement must be seen as a political success of the government.

However, in the other major case of international business in 2001, the case of PT Semen Gresik where the government decided to allow their put option to expire, the government showed weakness in their commitment to privatization. Knowing the background of Minister for State Enterprises Laksamana Sukardi as an advocate of privatization, his failure to obtain support from the legislature on his recommendation implies that the political footing of the Megawati government is not firm.

Stability for the government depends on their ability to inspire economic recovery. As President Megawati Soekarnoputri concentrates on short-term survival, she creates long-term problems. She may ease up on prosecution of Akbar Tandjung and even Soeharto in order to maintain support from certain groups, but the wishes of the ordinary people are not reflected by those groups.

They and a host of others associated with the calamitous New Order regime are precisely the reason the people rose up and supported change which is now being denied by Megawati's government. The Megawati government needs to be serious about fighting corruption and human rights violations. She has not shown an inclination to deal with these fundamental issues. Megawati seems satisfied to rest on the strength of the political coalition which brought her to power.

Megawati could remain in office until 2004 as long as the balance in the political elite is not upset. The problem with that attitude is that the economy will then have to sort itself out without the guidance of the government. We do have less pressure now from the IMF and the World Bank because of the commonality of cultures among their officials of and Megawati's cabinet. But it is dangerous to build on that understanding among elites while failing to come to grips with the crisis which is still hounding our people.

Issues of human rights and democracy no longer take top priority as external pressure on those issues disappear. No longer do we see Mary Robinson of the United Nations or Madeleine Albright of the United States expound on the supremacy of human rights. The world's powers are locked in to the U.S. government's single-minded dedication to the eradication of global terrorism. Indonesian human rights violators put by the previous government in the prosecution pipeline for human rights abuse in East Timor, Aceh and other cases now breathe easier as they are not in the line of fire in America's global campaign against Osama bin Laden.

There is real danger in the current situation because Megawati's political medicine is not addressed to cure the nation's real diseases. It is like using painkillers to conceal an affliction which requires operation. A sudden shift in political balance will open up a schism in the coalition of special interests now ruling the country. Two cases having tremendous potential to disrupt political stability are the corruption case known as Buloggate II involving Akbar and B.J. Habibie, and further weakening of the financial markets. Wrong decisions -- including the decision to do nothing -- spell political disaster and economic collapse.

With exceptions, the media have not met their public responsibility in alerting the public to the dangers of complacency. While the previous president constantly suffered persecution by the press, his successor Megawati is overprotected. Her silent style, while exasperating ordinary people, does not invite attacks from the press which former president Abdurrahman Wahid seemed to draw in virulent form. The press is just starting to be critical of President Megawati and her government.

A current significant issue is Megawati's reconciliation with leading figures of the Soeharto regime, to the point of ignoring their human rights record. In a year-end speech to the military she even told them not to worry about human rights abuse. She asked them just to be firm. Some advocacy groups such as the vocal "Petisi 50" and the Commission for Missing Persons and Victims of the Violence (Kontras) accused the Megawati administration of making deals with influential members of the New Order regime in a bid to maintain power. Many see that there will be systematic efforts to revive the culture of the autocratic New Order regime.

In a case of a different flavor, President Megawati drew a lot of criticism for a five-day New Year junket to Bali with relatives and close friends. The personal pleasure trip using presidential facilities stood out in embarrassing contrast with the austerity campaign that Megawati announced just last week. Megawati's 44-strong entourage, including members of her family, friends and government officials flew to Bali for a long secretive weekend. This exposes the first family as being frivolous and not having the capacity to empathize with the ordinary people. In her New Year's address she tells people to relax because we are still better off than some countries.

All of this leads to instability in the long term. It remains to be seen whether the possibility of destabilization will be anticipated by pre-emptive action on the part of some power groups. That is highly undesirable. We do not want a repeat of last year's national shame when the political elite conspired to oust an innocent president. The acrimony brought out the worst in everybody. The Indonesian people are capable of more decency than their political elite. But we need the government to give us some reason, moral or economic, to support their safe passage to 2004.