Short-term survival, long-term problems

Short-term survival, long-term problems

Wimar Witoelar, InterMatrix Communications, Jakarta

The success of the state power company PLN in concluding
renegotiations on the Paiton I and Paiton II steam power plant
deserves high praise. It is good news for everyone. With the
agreement, the Java - Bali power system gained access to
additional power and averted Java from a power crisis in 2004.
Considering the lengthy negotiations and complications which have
saddled the case for years, the agreement must be seen as a
political success of the government.

However, in the other major case of international business in
2001, the case of PT Semen Gresik where the government decided to
allow their put option to expire, the government showed weakness
in their commitment to privatization. Knowing the background of
Minister for State Enterprises Laksamana Sukardi as an advocate
of privatization, his failure to obtain support from the
legislature on his recommendation implies that the political
footing of the Megawati government is not firm.

Stability for the government depends on their ability to
inspire economic recovery. As President Megawati Soekarnoputri
concentrates on short-term survival, she creates long-term
problems. She may ease up on prosecution of Akbar Tandjung and
even Soeharto in order to maintain support from certain groups,
but the wishes of the ordinary people are not reflected by those
groups.

They and a host of others associated with the calamitous New
Order regime are precisely the reason the people rose up and
supported change which is now being denied by Megawati's
government. The Megawati government needs to be serious about
fighting corruption and human rights violations. She has not
shown an inclination to deal with these fundamental issues.
Megawati seems satisfied to rest on the strength of the political
coalition which brought her to power.

Megawati could remain in office until 2004 as long as the
balance in the political elite is not upset. The problem with
that attitude is that the economy will then have to sort itself
out without the guidance of the government. We do have less
pressure now from the IMF and the World Bank because of the
commonality of cultures among their officials of and Megawati's
cabinet. But it is dangerous to build on that understanding among
elites while failing to come to grips with the crisis which is
still hounding our people.

Issues of human rights and democracy no longer take top
priority as external pressure on those issues disappear. No
longer do we see Mary Robinson of the United Nations or Madeleine
Albright of the United States expound on the supremacy of human
rights. The world's powers are locked in to the U.S. government's
single-minded dedication to the eradication of global terrorism.
Indonesian human rights violators put by the previous government
in the prosecution pipeline for human rights abuse in East Timor,
Aceh and other cases now breathe easier as they are not in the
line of fire in America's global campaign against Osama bin
Laden.

There is real danger in the current situation because
Megawati's political medicine is not addressed to cure the
nation's real diseases. It is like using painkillers to conceal
an affliction which requires operation. A sudden shift in
political balance will open up a schism in the coalition of
special interests now ruling the country. Two cases having
tremendous potential to disrupt political stability are the
corruption case known as Buloggate II involving Akbar and B.J.
Habibie, and further weakening of the financial markets. Wrong
decisions -- including the decision to do nothing -- spell
political disaster and economic collapse.

With exceptions, the media have not met their public
responsibility in alerting the public to the dangers of
complacency. While the previous president constantly suffered
persecution by the press, his successor Megawati is
overprotected. Her silent style, while exasperating ordinary
people, does not invite attacks from the press which former
president Abdurrahman Wahid seemed to draw in virulent form. The
press is just starting to be critical of President Megawati and
her government.

A current significant issue is Megawati's reconciliation with
leading figures of the Soeharto regime, to the point of ignoring
their human rights record. In a year-end speech to the military
she even told them not to worry about human rights abuse. She
asked them just to be firm. Some advocacy groups such as the
vocal "Petisi 50" and the Commission for Missing Persons and
Victims of the Violence (Kontras) accused the Megawati
administration of making deals with influential members of the
New Order regime in a bid to maintain power. Many see that there
will be systematic efforts to revive the culture of the
autocratic New Order regime.

In a case of a different flavor, President Megawati drew a lot
of criticism for a five-day New Year junket to Bali with
relatives and close friends. The personal pleasure trip using
presidential facilities stood out in embarrassing contrast with
the austerity campaign that Megawati announced just last week.
Megawati's 44-strong entourage, including members of her family,
friends and government officials flew to Bali for a long
secretive weekend. This exposes the first family as being
frivolous and not having the capacity to empathize with the
ordinary people. In her New Year's address she tells people to
relax because we are still better off than some countries.

All of this leads to instability in the long term. It remains
to be seen whether the possibility of destabilization will be
anticipated by pre-emptive action on the part of some power
groups. That is highly undesirable. We do not want a repeat of
last year's national shame when the political elite conspired to
oust an innocent president. The acrimony brought out the worst in
everybody. The Indonesian people are capable of more decency than
their political elite. But we need the government to give us some
reason, moral or economic, to support their safe passage to 2004.