Shinshinto gains popularity

In the following analysis of Japanese party politics, following the 1995 House of Councilors election on July 23, Jakarta Post Asia correspondent Harvey Stockwin takes a look at the country's emerging two-party system and the increasing power of Shinshinto.

HONG KONG (JP): The most dramatic aspect of the July 23rd House of Councilors' election in Japan was that as the fortunes of the Socialists declined, those of the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) were not restored.

To the contrary, in one crucial aspect, the LDP, far from regaining its old ascendancy, was actually overtaken by Shinshinto (New Frontier Party), a new group formed late last year.

The development of a Japanese political system dominated by competition between two conservative parties was thus taken a stage further. But there is a long way to go yet.

The same 1989 House of Councilors election that marked the last hurrah for the Socialists, marked the beginning of the end for the undisturbed hegemony which the LDP had exercised over Japanese politics since 1955.

The triennial Upper House elections tell the story. In 1983 the LDP held 55 percent of the 262 seats, while in 1986 it did even better and won 57 percent.

But as the Socialists scored their shock win in 1989, the LDP sunk for the first time to 43 percent of the total seats. It has not been able to get back to over the 50 percent mark ever since.

While the LDP won 61 out of the 126 seats in 1992, it still ended up with only 43 percent of the seats overall. Then, in 1993, it also lost its long-enduring majority in the House of Representatives, and lost control of the reins of government for a little over a year, until it formed the current ruling coalition with its former foe, the Socialists, in mid-1994.

Now, with the help of three immediate cross-overs, the LDP has won the most seats, 49 out of 126, a gain of 16 over 1989, but still it has only edged up its overall percentage of Upper House seats to 44 percent.

The overall trend is unmistakable. The LDP, as presently constituted, is no longer assured of endless majorities. Its days of dominance in the House of Councilors are clearly over. One statistic clearly illustrates this. In order to win 50 percent plus one of the seats for itself in the next Upper House election, the LDP would have to win a statistically most unlikely 78 out of 126 seats.

The only doubt about the departure of the LDP's former dominance remains in the new reformed electoral system for the more important House of Representatives. The LDP remains the largest single party in both Houses of the Diet and in the country at large. It is still backed by considerable financial resources. The new, as yet untried, Lower House system of 300 single member constituencies, plus 200 seats allotted by proportional representation, might, in the right circumstances, allow the LDP to win a majority there on its own.

Were that to happen, that would leave the LDP in the position of having to secure control of the less crucial but still important Upper House. One way or another, it seems that an era of coalition governments looms ahead in Japanese politics.

But that is not an easy answer either. As the LDP and the Socialists have just discovered, the fact that they had formed their coalition last year was one major reason why both parties did poorly at the polls. The coalition took the unusual step of lowering its target just before the voting, and ended up doing slightly better than its reduced goal.

The LDP/Socialist coalition of former opponents exudes the smell of power for power's sake -- an odor to which Japanese voters are obviously not attracted.

But an alternative course to continued rule by expedient political alliances can also be glimpsed in the Upper House poll results. The possibility exists of the quicker development of a viable two-party system, provided the snail's pace of Japan's long slow march towards reform gathers some speed.

As the LDP party bosses look at the recent voting, one group of figures must be worrying them more than any other.

In the election as a whole, Shinshinto, a party which is less than a year old, won 23,510,003 votes (and 40 seats) as against the 21,654,519 votes secured by the LDP (46 seats).

In the voting for the prefectural constituencies Shinshinto won 446,134 votes more than the LDP even though it only secured 22 seats to the LDP's 31 seats.

Most striking of all in the voting, according to proportional representation, Shinshinto emerged on top, winning 1,409,350 more votes, and three more seats (18 to 15), than the LDP.

Asserting itself in this limited way as the largest party in Japanese politics, Shinshinto amassed just a shade under double the number of votes won by the former number two party, the Socialists.

Another significant fact was that in 13 out of 18 two-seat prefectural constituencies, Shinshinto won the second seat formerly won by the Socialists.

Additionally, as the Socialist votes and seats declined, the Japan Communist Party votes and seats increased. (The obvious move statistically -- merger of the two left-wing parties to create a bloc almost as large in total votes as the LDP or Shinshinto -- will never be made politically. The Socialist- Communist ideological divide is incomprehensibly too deep for this to ever happen.)

Equally worrying for the Socialists are that their total votes are not all that much greater than the total votes cast for the array of small political parties participating in the election.

All told, this was a much better-than-expected result for Shinshinto. Party leader, former Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu, made a better impression on voters than LDP leader Yohei Kono, which is one reason why some LDP leaders are thinking Kono should be replaced.

Shinshinto's overall organization was in the capable hands of its secretary-general, the reputed political master-mind Ichiro Ozawa. Shinshinto also did better than the LDP in attracting some well known personalities to stand for election, especially in the proportional representation.

That said, the anticipated development of a Japanese political system dominated by two rival conservative political parties is not just around the corner.

One dominant fact about the recent Upper House voting -- the appallingly low turnout of voters -- means that neither Shinshinto nor any other party has any grounds for complacency.

In 1992, the gradual decline in voter interest was thought to have reached rock bottom with a 50.7 percent turnout, especially as the percentage went right back up again in the 1993 House of Representatives election.

In retrospect, 1993-1994, when the reformist ministry led by Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa took office, was the high point of Japanese public enthusiasm for political reform. Hosokawa's Japan New Party promised just that -- something new. First there was disillusion with Hosokawa, then with reform itself. The new turned out to be the old. The expedient formation of the LDP- Socialist coalition last year was merely more cynical icing on a profoundly skeptical cake, as far as the Japanese public was concerned.

So, there was an horrendous turnout of 44.5 per cent for this election, the lowest turnout in the last 50 years. In only four constituencies was the turnout above 50 percent, while it was below 40 percent in seven districts.

As the Yomiuri Shimbun cautiously reported, "The low turnout is believed to reflect voters' distrust of politics and established parties, as well as unclear differences between parties' policies".

This emphatic signal of voter apathy clearly reduces the extent to which electoral conclusions can be drawn from the Upper House poll. Shinshinto may have done well precisely because there was a very low turnout. It is quite conceivable that progress towards a two-party system would be retarded, if the turnout increases in future elections. The floating voters stayed at home this time. Next time, they might well go for the smaller or the left-wing parties, thereby further complicating the political scene.

The LDP and Shinshinto will only gain from an increased turnout in future if they make themselves more attractive. Conversely, if extremely low turnouts persist, the future prospects of Japanese democracy could be bleak.

So the long slow march towards true Japanese political reform still has a long way to go yet. Snails-pace progress continues to be the order of the day.