Setting the foreign policy agenda

JAKARTA (JP): Even crystal balls and tarot cards would have trouble predicting the events of the coming year, but a number of issues facing the country's foreign policy should remain constant.

Human rights and East Timor will continue to be a thorn in the side, and with Indonesia's step into the limelight as a member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) these issues will continue to be used to pierce Jakarta's credibility.

As Juwono Sudarsono, a professor of international relations at the University of Indonesia, explained, human rights are an integral part of a "conscience industry" for many in the West.

Dewi Fortuna Anwar from the Indonesian Science Institute (LIPI) remarked that criticism on such issues is unavoidable if Indonesia wishes to play a larger role in the international arena.

"It's a normal phenomenon," she said arguing that the more the country opens itself up to the outside world the more both its good and bad sides become visible.

Nana Sutresna, a senior diplomat and executive assistant of the Non-Aligned Movement, acknowledged the continuing tendency by some to exploit Indonesia's human rights record.

However he contended that the world is beginning to appreciate and recognize the real facts of human rights conditions and the improvements the government has made here.

Nana maintained that Indonesia's recent election to the Security Council proved this point. He noted that Indonesia, with its alleged abuses, was able to gain as many votes as Germany, a country with a supposedly better human rights record.

Indonesia's permanent representative to the UN, Nugroho Wisnumurti, also noted that East Timor is no longer a preoccupation at the UN.

They have better things to do, he said, while adding that even UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali has signified the talks between the Indonesian and Portuguese foreign ministers as the main route to a solution.

Despite several meetings between the two foreign ministers, little headway has been made in nearing a solution. At present it seems unlikely that the talks will lay the issue to rest any time soon.

Even Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Alatas has shown little optimism over the next round of talks on Jan. 9, citing Lisbon's reluctance to tackle the core issue of a permanent solution as the cause.

In spite of this, Alatas remains consistent in maintaining these talks as the single channel of finding a solution.

He further refutes suggestions that Indonesia's entry into the UNSC will hasten an end to the East Timor question. "We didn't join the Security Council as a way of resolving the East Timor issue."

In dealing with human rights and East Timor, Dewi Fortuna believes that Indonesia must not be overly defensive in its response.

She urged better coordination and stressed the need for quick access to information for Indonesian diplomats as the key to countering and attending to those issues.

She also suggested that the government itself must show a willingness to improve conditions here since those criticisms do hold some grain of truth.

Indonesia's diplomatic skill will come under test when it takes a seat at the UNSC on Jan. 1 because Jakarta will finally have the necessary forum to execute much of its expressed rhetoric.

Jakarta's criticism of the handling of the Bosnian crisis, along with its position against the embargo on Iraq and Cuba, which are contrary to the West's views, will be put to the test.

Can Indonesia make a difference or will it acquiesce to the pressure of this western dominated council?

Soedjati Djiwandono from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies suggests that as long as the veto rights of the major powers remain intact, Indonesia's presence as a non- permanent member will remain in vain.

Head of the international relations department at the University of Indonesia, Hero Kuntjoro-Jakti, though admitting the difficulty of the task, expressed confidence when he said that Indonesia can be the voice of NAM and the South in the council.

Much of the foreign ministry's energy was devoted to APEC in 1994, and with the obligation to draw up a blueprint for the Bogor Declaration next year, it remains to be seen whether the convictions about the forum set out by Indonesia will remain as strong during Japan's chairmanship.

As Nana Sutresna said, the past success in hammering out the Bogor Declaration had more to do with the "messenger and not the message".

Dewi Fortuna said that there is no such thing as free trade in the Indonesian economy.

Thus, how will Indonesia, with its monopolized economy, deal with the economic realism of the Declaration? And, will Jakarta sustain the vigor to push for free trade ideals now that it no longer presides over the forum?

So far the government has been constant in its statements. In response to emerging skepticism, President Soeharto just last week reasserted his commitment to the ideals expounded in Bogor.

Suggestions that a senior official who chaired the APEC meetings would be the country's next ambassador to Japan also hints that Indonesia is committed to contributing to the next step at the APEC Summit in Osaka next year.

Good or bad, 1995 is sure to be an eventful year, which could do much to enlarge Indonesia's international stature, or which could condemn it to the role of just another country expounding rhetoric in Southeast Asia. (mds)