Sept. runoff a second test for RI

Sept. runoff a second test for RI

The Straits Times
Asia News Network
Singapore

Indonesians now know the incumbent, Megawati Soekarnoputri,
and retired general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will go into a
second-round ballot in September to decide who shall be their
first directly elected president. She seems at a slight
disadvantage; first, she trailed Susilo quite markedly in the
first-round ballot (26.6 percent against 33.6 percent), and
second, an opinion poll taken by the reliable Indonesian Survey
Institute just over a week ago had Susilo as runaway favorite (68
percent against 23 percent).

But the run-off election is eight weeks away, on Sept. 20.
Beyond the rough indications of voter intent shown in these sets
of numbers, the contest looks more open than the rivals' rallying
comments to their campaign workers would suggest. Susilo was
asking his people to aim for at least 60 percent. The Soeharto-
era Golkar party which is aligned with Megawati said Susilo's
popularity could have peaked. With time available to make up
ground, party chairman Akbar Tandjung showed uncommon confidence
when speaking of 'several cards' he could deal to turn the tide.

This is the time when both camps have a duty to put a lid on
passions to prove the exemplary conduct of the first-round ballot
showed maturing of a democratizing tradition. The campaign was
largely free of violence. There were no incidents of voter
intimidation that could be ascertained, and allegations of vote-
buying and ballot-stuffing were hardly raised. Turnout of 76
percent for voting that was not compulsory showed a high degree
of civic responsibility.

And the fact that complaints of irregular vote counts by
eliminated candidate Wiranto were not given much credence can be
taken as confidence in the electoral process. There is some
danger the hard-earned credits can get dissipated in the intense
lobbying that is getting into gear. The political elite and
people have done themselves proud thus far; they should keep it
up.

The coalition-building will exacerbate tensions. Golkar
putting its nation-wide networks at Megawati's disposal could
dismay those Indonesians who desire a Jakarta Spring -- a
cleansing of the system of patronage and protection for powerful
individuals that has retarded social emancipation. This would
depend on how much of a trade-off Megawati would bargain away to
secure Golkar's assumed block vote.

As Golkar has the most seats in parliament, a concentration of
presidential and parliamentary authority can be both a temptation
and a governing aid. Politicians will just have to learn to
exercise power correctly. Susilo is also said to be courting
Golkar and any organized entity with a substantial national
membership base. His Democratic Party is a pygmy in the
Indonesian scheme, and that makes the horse trading he has to
indulge in particularly hazardous when the chips are cashed, if
he wins.

But research by a Jakarta consultancy, LP3ES, showing that
block voting for preferred candidates in the first round was a
myth will tend to question the efficacy of building alliances.
Golkar endorsed Wiranto, but he got only 55 percent of members'
votes while Susilo captured an impressive 31 percent. Nahdlatul
Ulama, the largest Muslim-based organization with 40 million
members, also endorsed Wiranto.

But he had to share its favors with Susilo (33 percent against
32), while Megawati obtained 22 percent. It would be interesting
to see whether block booking in return for concessions gets
discredited as a political habit. If it is, the implicit free-
conscience voting would count as more progress in the Indonesian
transition.