Sept. runoff a second test for RI

The Straits Times Asia News Network Singapore

Indonesians now know the incumbent, Megawati Soekarnoputri, and retired general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will go into a second-round ballot in September to decide who shall be their first directly elected president. She seems at a slight disadvantage; first, she trailed Susilo quite markedly in the first-round ballot (26.6 percent against 33.6 percent), and second, an opinion poll taken by the reliable Indonesian Survey Institute just over a week ago had Susilo as runaway favorite (68 percent against 23 percent).

But the run-off election is eight weeks away, on Sept. 20. Beyond the rough indications of voter intent shown in these sets of numbers, the contest looks more open than the rivals' rallying comments to their campaign workers would suggest. Susilo was asking his people to aim for at least 60 percent. The Soeharto- era Golkar party which is aligned with Megawati said Susilo's popularity could have peaked. With time available to make up ground, party chairman Akbar Tandjung showed uncommon confidence when speaking of 'several cards' he could deal to turn the tide.

This is the time when both camps have a duty to put a lid on passions to prove the exemplary conduct of the first-round ballot showed maturing of a democratizing tradition. The campaign was largely free of violence. There were no incidents of voter intimidation that could be ascertained, and allegations of vote- buying and ballot-stuffing were hardly raised. Turnout of 76 percent for voting that was not compulsory showed a high degree of civic responsibility.

And the fact that complaints of irregular vote counts by eliminated candidate Wiranto were not given much credence can be taken as confidence in the electoral process. There is some danger the hard-earned credits can get dissipated in the intense lobbying that is getting into gear. The political elite and people have done themselves proud thus far; they should keep it up.

The coalition-building will exacerbate tensions. Golkar putting its nation-wide networks at Megawati's disposal could dismay those Indonesians who desire a Jakarta Spring -- a cleansing of the system of patronage and protection for powerful individuals that has retarded social emancipation. This would depend on how much of a trade-off Megawati would bargain away to secure Golkar's assumed block vote.

As Golkar has the most seats in parliament, a concentration of presidential and parliamentary authority can be both a temptation and a governing aid. Politicians will just have to learn to exercise power correctly. Susilo is also said to be courting Golkar and any organized entity with a substantial national membership base. His Democratic Party is a pygmy in the Indonesian scheme, and that makes the horse trading he has to indulge in particularly hazardous when the chips are cashed, if he wins.

But research by a Jakarta consultancy, LP3ES, showing that block voting for preferred candidates in the first round was a myth will tend to question the efficacy of building alliances. Golkar endorsed Wiranto, but he got only 55 percent of members' votes while Susilo captured an impressive 31 percent. Nahdlatul Ulama, the largest Muslim-based organization with 40 million members, also endorsed Wiranto.

But he had to share its favors with Susilo (33 percent against 32), while Megawati obtained 22 percent. It would be interesting to see whether block booking in return for concessions gets discredited as a political habit. If it is, the implicit free- conscience voting would count as more progress in the Indonesian transition.