Seeking the path to peace in restive Myanmar

The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok

The outlook for Burma's future is very bleak. U.S. President George W Bush is expected to sign a new law passed by the Congress last week that will ban all Burmese-made products. Burma exports 80 percent of its textile products to the U.S. Without this vital market, over 350,000 workers will lose their jobs. Moreover, further sanctions are expected from the European Union. Japan has already stopped new aid to Burma following years of generous assistance. These increased sanctions will squeeze Burma further.

Unfortunately, ordinary Burmese will be affected. But the junta leaders, whose commercial interests are embedded in exporting companies, will also suffer. About 70 percent of the country's gross national product belongs to the junta leaders.

Sanctions work in the sense that they force the Burmese junta to think over its current policies even though the outcome would not be immediate. It is clear that the detention of Aung San Suu Kyi since May 30 is a contentious issue that the junta leaders cannot resolve among themselves. This obviously reflects the extent of disagreement among the junta leaders and their burgeoning dilemma.

With growing international pressure and support for Aung San Suu Kyi, it is becoming more and more difficult for the junta to deal with her. The international community, including ASEAN, has called for Aung San Suu Kyi's immediate release and yet Burma refuses to comply. Now, Asean has threatened the admission of Burma, along with Laos and Cambodia, as new members of the Asia Europe Meeting (ASEM). The EU has made it known that it would object to Burma's membership, given the latest violence against the opposition.

As its close neighbor, Thailand has pursuing a flexible foreign policy towards Burma, trying to please all ears. While it calls for Suu Kyi's freedom, it has mollified the regime by harassing Burmese students in exile. While the U.S. Congress calls on Thailand to cooperate with the US to ensure democracy in Burma, Thailand acts as the junta's best friend, telling the world that Suu Kyi is in good health.

The Thai government is acting as if it does not have any influence over the scheme of things in Burma. While The Thai Foreign Ministry has presented a roadmap to Burmese Vice Foreign Minister Kin Muang Win recently, it has disclosed none of the details.

But to be credible, they must include the release of Suu Kyi and the resumption of dialogue between the regime and the opposition. In addition, all political prisoners must be freed to allow opposition members to resume political work.

Whatever happens to Burma, Thailand has much to lose. The government has already come up with contingency plans to tackle a possible influx of Burmese migrant workers resulting from the economic sanctions there.

Sadly, Thailand worries much about the influx of Burmese workers without digging deep into the root causes inside Burma. The economic problems are caused by a failed regime that does not have support of the population.

Thailand should have learned from its recent history. Its ties with Cambodia were severely tested with torching of Thai Embassy. But both countries were able to overcome the crisis because they have elected governments that must respond to the voices of the people one way or another. In Burma, an elected government would stem the threatened influx of migrants because assistance would come, sanctions would be lifted and the Burmese people would stay home to ensure their government responded to their views and demands.