Secular Turkey's beleaguered Islamists seek salvation

By Elif Unal

ANKARA (Reuters): Secular Turkey's public enemy number one, powerful political Islam, is expected to see defections from its ranks when a court verdict on whether to ban the main opposition Islamic party is handed down next month.

Even if the constitutional court outlaws the Virtue Party for allegedly trying to wrench Turkey from its secular path, there is no doubt the Islamic movement will survive.

But it will no longer operate under a single banner, marking a major turning point in its 30 year history.

"A new party will be formed if Virtue is closed down. If not then we will first see what we can do inside Virtue," a senior party member told Reuters.

Observers say a split inside the movement is inevitable regardless of the verdict on Virtue's fate -- which is due around mid-June.

A ban on the party would carry further complications, such as the risk of worsening EU-candidate Turkey's already troubled relations with the European Union at the cost of satisfying the country's strictly secularist army generals.

"Many countries are watching not only the Virtue closure case but the cases against the other political parties such as (pro- Kurdish People's Democratic Party) HADEP," a Western diplomat said. "That's something we take very seriously".

The influential military, which has staged three coups since 1960s, forced Turkey's first Islamist-led government from power four years ago. The move was part of an official crackdown that the generals launched on all type of Islamic activists -- describing them as "public enemy number one".

Outlawing Virtue could also destabilize the country's three- party coalition if the court not bans not only the party but expels a certain number of Islamic MPs from parliament, which would trigger by-elections.

Analysts say this option is increasingly unlikely as the country tries to pull itself out of a severe financial crisis.

The popular Islamic figure and former Istanbul mayor Recep Tayyip Erdogan, head of the progressive wing in the Islamic movement, has already suggested setting up a new political party.

His move would be the first ever serious challenge to the movement's architect, former prime minister Necmettin Erbakan. Two of Erbakan's previous parties were closed in the wake of military coups in 1971 and 1980. On both occasions he returned at the helm of a similar grouping with a new name.

The 75-year-old veteran politician has had to remain as the backstage leader of Virtue after being barred from political activities when his Welfare Party was banned in 1998, a year after he was eased out of office by the military-led campaign.

The progressive wing blames Erbakan's policies for a setback in 1999 elections when Virtue's share of the vote dropped from 21 percent to 15 percent. Now, at least half of Virtue's 102 parliamentary deputies are reported to be prepared to join the planned new party, sources say.

A court order barring Erdogan from political leadership, however, casts a shadow over his future. He served a 10-month prison term in 1999 for "inciting hatred" after reciting a poem at a rally.

But analysts say the former mayor is determined to push ahead with his plans regardless of the Virtue case. He is expected to try to have the ban on political activities lifted.

"If he fails then he will pick a caretaker name to run his party," says Rusen Cakir, an expert on the Islamic movement.

Erdogan, 47, plans to emerge as a new center-right leader with a program adopting liberal economic policies and combining traditional and contemporary values. He hopes to attract MPs from rightist and conservative parties.

The controversial issue of allowing women to wear Islamic- style headscarves in public offices and universities, for example, is a matter of human rights, according to Erdogan supporters.

"We will definitely defend the right to wear the headscarf with a stronger voice but from the aspect of human rights," says Abdullah Gul whose name is cited as a possible party leader.

Erbakan's traditionalists play down Erdogan's chances. "His program has nothing to do with us. I don't think it can win any support from our grassroots," says Virtue's Bahri Zengin.

Winning the trust of the country's secularist establishment, led by the military, would clearly be an uphill task for the former mayor. "If he wants to succeed, he should prove that he has the approval of the centre. Those who influence the center are the army and the (outside) world," says analyst Cakir.

Virtue failed to accomplish that despite distancing itself greatly from the policies of its predecessor Welfare.

Welfare's flamboyant calls for an Islamic economic order or a union with Muslim states instead of joining the European Union were all abandoned.

But Virtue's advocacy of free market principles and close ties with world institutions, including the European Union, have not averted the suspicion of the military.

The powerful generals, self-appointed guardians of secularism, are deeply suspicious that the Islamists have a secret agenda of replacing the secular order with one based on Islamic Sharia law.

Cakir says Erdogan also faces competition from Economy Minister and former World Bank official Kemal Dervis. Dervis who was brought in from Washington to save the country from the financial crisis has earned much public sympathy and is seen as a possible future leader of the center left.

"Dervis has proved he has the confidence of the outside world, Cakir said. "It is quite hard to gain points just by using the propaganda of globalization while somebody like Dervis is around."