Search for balance among new powers

The election of Amien Rais as the Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) has been welcomed, yet critics say his National Mandate Party only won around seven percent of votes in the last election. Yogyakarta-based political lecturer Riswandha Imawan discusses the issue with The Jakarta Post.

Question: Would you say Amien Rais now owes Golkar a favor given that the party was the likely largest contributor to his votes?

Answer: I think what is happening there (at the general session) is... various scenarios from various political parties. I would say Amien got trapped into one of them. I quite agree with his election which is consistent with his accommodative and progressive stance against the New Order -- he was a motor of reform.

But if one views Amien as a figure from the "axis force" (of Muslim-based parties) he could be trapped into the counter scenario of the force itself; in the presidential election it would be difficult for any candidate of theirs to win...

Q: So Abdurrahman Wahid's chances for the presidency are small?

A: Yes. If another member of the axis force were to be chosen (for a strategic position) like Hamzah Haz, their would be enormous resistance if the president was Gus Dur (Abdurrahman).

Q: Would this resistance be from Megawati's camp?

A: It would be more fitting to say the "nationalist" and also the non-Muslim camps. What people most often forget is that "voting is voting" but there are other variables -- political balance.

Q: Would this mean a power sharing agreement, for instance, Amien as MPR Speaker, Abdurrahman Wahid as president, Megawati as vice president and Akbar Tandjung as the House of Representatives Speaker?

A: I don't think that could be said to be actual power sharing judging from the votes gained by the candidates for the MPR speaker. One candidate got only one vote ...

Q: So do you see tough political games in the general session?

A: Yes, and it will be even more so in the presidential election. What is rather ironic here is that the presidential election would not be so tough if Golkar sticks with its candidate, B.J. Habibie. The election of the MPR Speaker was only a prologue of more tougher games to come.

Q: Would Golkar's bargaining position be increased if it proposed another candidate as president, supported by the axis force in return for Amien's seat?

A: As I said, Amien's election could be said to be a counter scenario. There would still be rejection (of a Golkar candidate supported by the axis force) because of the balancing factor demanded. Any candidate from the axis force would find it difficult to get support.

Note why the Love the Nation Democratic Party (PDKB) insisted on having their own faction. It's supported by Catholics, right?

They see that the others are Muslim factions. This is an indication that the demands for their own faction mean that the balancing of powers should not be forgotten amid the mechanism of voting.

Q: Why couldn't the PDKB faction with five members just merge with the faction of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP faction). Their members could have been the ones voting for Kwik Kian Gie (of the PDIP faction) in the election of the MPR Speaker...

A: Elections are done on an individual basis and factions represent institutions. The stance of parties could differ with individual members. Why indeed couldn't PDKB members just merge with the National Mandate Party which claims to be pluralistic, or with the PDIP faction or Golkar? Because they would become the minority. So don't forget the need for balance here.

Q: After Amien was elected on Sunday night there were shouts of "Long live Amien and Golkar!" How do you see that?

A: They were likely not serious. Maybe they were even from his own party... (Israr Ardiansyah)