Search for balance among new powers

Search for balance among new powers

The election of Amien Rais as the Speaker of the People's
Consultative Assembly (MPR) has been welcomed, yet critics say
his National Mandate Party only won around seven percent of votes
in the last election. Yogyakarta-based political lecturer
Riswandha Imawan discusses the issue with The Jakarta Post.

Question: Would you say Amien Rais now owes Golkar a favor
given that the party was the likely largest contributor to his
votes?

Answer: I think what is happening there (at the general
session) is... various scenarios from various political parties.
I would say Amien got trapped into one of them. I quite agree
with his election which is consistent with his accommodative and
progressive stance against the New Order -- he was a motor of
reform.

But if one views Amien as a figure from the "axis force" (of
Muslim-based parties) he could be trapped into the counter
scenario of the force itself; in the presidential election it
would be difficult for any candidate of theirs to win...

Q: So Abdurrahman Wahid's chances for the presidency are small?

A: Yes. If another member of the axis force were to be chosen
(for a strategic position) like Hamzah Haz, their would be
enormous resistance if the president was Gus Dur (Abdurrahman).

Q: Would this resistance be from Megawati's camp?

A: It would be more fitting to say the "nationalist" and also the
non-Muslim camps. What people most often forget is that "voting
is voting" but there are other variables -- political balance.

Q: Would this mean a power sharing agreement, for instance, Amien
as MPR Speaker, Abdurrahman Wahid as president, Megawati as vice
president and Akbar Tandjung as the House of Representatives
Speaker?

A: I don't think that could be said to be actual power sharing
judging from the votes gained by the candidates for the MPR
speaker. One candidate got only one vote ...

Q: So do you see tough political games in the general session?

A: Yes, and it will be even more so in the presidential election.
What is rather ironic here is that the presidential election
would not be so tough if Golkar sticks with its candidate, B.J.
Habibie. The election of the MPR Speaker was only a prologue of
more tougher games to come.

Q: Would Golkar's bargaining position be increased if it proposed
another candidate as president, supported by the axis force in
return for Amien's seat?

A: As I said, Amien's election could be said to be a counter
scenario. There would still be rejection (of a Golkar candidate
supported by the axis force) because of the balancing factor
demanded. Any candidate from the axis force would find it
difficult to get support.

Note why the Love the Nation Democratic Party (PDKB) insisted
on having their own faction. It's supported by Catholics, right?

They see that the others are Muslim factions. This is an
indication that the demands for their own faction mean that the
balancing of powers should not be forgotten amid the mechanism of
voting.

Q: Why couldn't the PDKB faction with five members just merge
with the faction of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
(PDIP faction). Their members could have been the ones voting for
Kwik Kian Gie (of the PDIP faction) in the election of the MPR
Speaker...

A: Elections are done on an individual basis and factions
represent institutions. The stance of parties could differ with
individual members. Why indeed couldn't PDKB members just merge
with the National Mandate Party which claims to be pluralistic,
or with the PDIP faction or Golkar? Because they would become the
minority. So don't forget the need for balance here.

Q: After Amien was elected on Sunday night there were shouts of
"Long live Amien and Golkar!" How do you see that?

A: They were likely not serious. Maybe they were even from his
own party... (Israr Ardiansyah)