SE Asia and the peace dividend

SE Asia and the peace dividend

By Dewi Fortuna Anwar

The following article is based on a paper presented at the
Defense Services Asia 1996 conference: "Changing Conception of
Security in a Changing Pacific Asia" in Kuala Lumpur on April 25
and April 26, 1996. This is the first of two articles.

KUALA LUMPUR: The most important changes taking place in
Southeast Asian security have occurred in the relations between
ASEAN and the other countries of Southeast Asia. The end of the
Cold War and the settlement of the Cambodian conflict have
brought peace to the Indochinese states and led to a complete
rapprochement between these countries and ASEAN.

The two formerly antagonistic subregions have finally come
together under the umbrella of ASEAN. Vietnam joined ASEAN in
July 1995. Laos and Cambodia, which have both acceded to the
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, will likely to become full
members of the association at its 1997 ministerial meeting. By
that time Myanmar will be the only Southeast Asian country
remaining outside the ASEAN fold. Even Myanmar, however, is
beginning to show its interests in developing closer relations
with ASEAN.

The expectation that all ten Southeast Asian countries will be
united within one regional organization by the turn of the
century, as originally envisaged by the founding fathers of
ASEAN, will hopefully be realized. The way towards this has
already been paved by the holding of the first ever Southeast
Asian summit, albeit informally, which brought together all ten
heads of state or government in Bangkok in December 1995. A
second such meeting is planned to take place in Bogor later this
year.

With Southeast Asian unification almost a reality, it means
that major progress is also being made towards achieving ASEAN's
long term political objectives. These are the establishment of
the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) and Southeast
Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (SEANWFZ), which is a component
of ZOPFAN. For over two decades ZOPFAN seemed like an unrealistic
and unattainable dream, given the sharp regional cleavages and
the intrusive roles of outside powers which further exacerbated
regional conflicts. Now this regional division is at an end,
making it possible for all of the Southeast Asian countries to
come to an agreement about the desirable regional order. In fact,
the ten Southeast Asian countries have recently signed the Treaty
on Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone. The challenge for
Southeast Asia in general, and ASEAN in particular, is how to win
international recognition and support for ZOPFAN and SEANWFZ.

Until the end of the Cold War, the security concerns of most
Southeast Asian nations were confined to their immediate
subregions. The urgency of the domestic and regional problems
left policymakers in ASEAN with little time and energy to pay
attention to the wider regional security issues. At the same time
the bipolar structure of the Cold War, dominated by the United
States and the Soviet Union, had also provided scant
opportunities to the smaller and medium powers to play a
meaningful role beyond their immediate environment.

Despite Southeast Asian being a primary theater of the Cold
War, the regional government's became pawns in the competition
among the great powers. Southeast Asia bore the brunt of two Cold
Wars, namely the East-West conflict which resulted in the Vietnam
War and the confrontation between China and the Soviet Union
which was mainly responsible for the Cambodian conflict.
Southeast Asia's strategic location had made it important enough
for the great powers to attempt to bring it under their spheres
of influence, or at least deny the region to their enemies. As a
result, Southeast Asia was divided into two opposing camps,
communist Indochina and non-communist ASEAN.

The disintegration of the Soviet Union effectively ended the
Cold War and ended the rapprochement between Beijing and Moscow.
It also presented Southeast Asian countries with opportunities as
well as challenges. The relaxation of tensions among the major
powers greatly contributed to the settlement of regional
conflicts in Southeast Asia. A growing sense of regional
solidarity and cohesion will accompany the widening of ASEAN.
Such a situation will clearly enhance regional resilience and
make it hard for outside powers to interfere in Southeast Asian
internal affairs or play one party off another.

The end of the Cold War has also provided an opportunity for
ASEAN to play a more active role outside the region. Ideological
confrontation has now been replaced by the common desire for
economic prosperity, pushing countries towards closer cooperation
with each other. While the overall reduction of global tensions
have made cooperation easier among the former contending powers,
the replacement of the rigid and therefore more predictable Cold
War bipolar structure with a much more fluid system has also
increased the need for security talks. Here ASEAN has been able
to take a leading role.

Countries in Southeast Asia have always been very aware of the
fact that their security is closely linked to the happenings
outside their immediate region. Compared to all the other
countries and groupings, ASEAN is clearly the most strategically
placed to take the initiative in promoting a multilateral
security dialog.

Firstly, ASEAN has already established a wide-ranging dialog
partnerships with most of the key international actors through
the ASEAN Post Ministerial Conference. Secondly, ASEAN's positive
role in helping to end the Cambodian conflict has also earned the
association a pool of goodwill from the other regional members.
Last but not least, ASEAN's initiative was also accepted by all
of other regional powers because it is basically an innocuous
association which poses no threat to any one. As such, ASEAN's
leading role in promoting a multilateral security dialog is not
immediately suspected of having an ulterior motive by the other
parties.

The establishment of the ASEAN Regional Forum is clearly a
major breakthrough in the quest for security in the Asia Pacific
region. So far it is the only official forum in which security
issues can be discussed in the wider Asia-Pacific multilateral
setting. Although it is still at a very early stage, much hope is
being pinned on the ARF as the primary vehicle for promoting
peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. The main
objectives of the ARF are to promote confidence building
measures, preventive diplomacy, and, in the long term, to
establish mechanisms for conflict resolutions.