Scientist warns about drought, rupiah problems

YOGYAKARTA (JP): This year's prolonged drought, which coincides with the rupiah's sharp decline in value, is a serious national problem that may lead to dangerous ramifications if it does not end by the end of the year, a sociologist says.

The head of the Center for Rural and Regional Development Studies of Gadjah Mada University, Loekman Soetrisno, said the drought may eventually force the government to import rice and corn. That means that a huge amount of foreign exchange will be needed, he said in a seminar here yesterday.

"The rupiah's decline can be seen as the decline of the government's capability to import foodstuff for both people and cattle. If this happens, the political and economic consequences will be difficult (to bear)," he said.

"Experience has shown that once Indonesia and China start importing rice, the international price usually goes up dramatically and immediately," he added.

The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency predicts that this year's drought will end sometime in November or December, meaning that it will have lasted for eight months.

The current dry season has caused significant damage. Some 300,000 hectares of forest in Kalimantan and Sumatra have been burned, thousands of hectares of crops have been destroyed, and many villages have suffered from a shortage of clean water.

If the drought lasts for eight months, it means that farmers would lose two consecutive harvests, affecting their food supply and forcing them to be dependent on the market, Loekman pointed out.

"The consequences would be serious because poor farmers don't have enough cash to buy food. They would then subsist by lowering the quality of food and changing consumption patterns," he said.

Substitution

"They would substitute rice with tiwul (foodstuff made of cassava), and if the drought lasts longer they would start consuming even poorer quality food like gogik (also made of cassava)," Loekman said.

The next strategy would be for them to leave their villages to seek employment in cities, he said. "That option would, however, involve other problems because the rupiah's decline restricts economic activities in urban centers, so villagers would have a difficult time finding jobs," he said.

He cited other consequences such as an increase in crime.

The rupiah's decline and the prolonged drought became extraordinary problems because they occurred when Indonesia's economic and social foundation was unstable, he said.

Riots which saw churches and police stations burned down were examples of the impact of weak economic and social fundamentals, he added.

Loekman said Indonesia needed alternatives to solve the problems, and said universities could help the government study the situation objectively.

He conceded, however, that "good solutions based on objective analyses" could not always be applied due to political considerations. (swa)