Scientist warns about drought, rupiah problems

Scientist warns about drought, rupiah problems

YOGYAKARTA (JP): This year's prolonged drought, which
coincides with the rupiah's sharp decline in value, is a serious
national problem that may lead to dangerous ramifications if it
does not end by the end of the year, a sociologist says.

The head of the Center for Rural and Regional Development
Studies of Gadjah Mada University, Loekman Soetrisno, said the
drought may eventually force the government to import rice and
corn. That means that a huge amount of foreign exchange will be
needed, he said in a seminar here yesterday.

"The rupiah's decline can be seen as the decline of the
government's capability to import foodstuff for both people and
cattle. If this happens, the political and economic consequences
will be difficult (to bear)," he said.

"Experience has shown that once Indonesia and China start
importing rice, the international price usually goes up
dramatically and immediately," he added.

The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency predicts that this
year's drought will end sometime in November or December, meaning
that it will have lasted for eight months.

The current dry season has caused significant damage. Some
300,000 hectares of forest in Kalimantan and Sumatra have been
burned, thousands of hectares of crops have been destroyed, and
many villages have suffered from a shortage of clean water.

If the drought lasts for eight months, it means that farmers
would lose two consecutive harvests, affecting their food supply
and forcing them to be dependent on the market, Loekman pointed
out.

"The consequences would be serious because poor farmers don't
have enough cash to buy food. They would then subsist by lowering
the quality of food and changing consumption patterns," he said.

Substitution

"They would substitute rice with tiwul (foodstuff made of
cassava), and if the drought lasts longer they would start
consuming even poorer quality food like gogik (also made of
cassava)," Loekman said.

The next strategy would be for them to leave their villages to
seek employment in cities, he said. "That option would, however,
involve other problems because the rupiah's decline restricts
economic activities in urban centers, so villagers would have a
difficult time finding jobs," he said.

He cited other consequences such as an increase in crime.

The rupiah's decline and the prolonged drought became
extraordinary problems because they occurred when Indonesia's
economic and social foundation was unstable, he said.

Riots which saw churches and police stations burned down were
examples of the impact of weak economic and social fundamentals,
he added.

Loekman said Indonesia needed alternatives to solve the
problems, and said universities could help the government study
the situation objectively.

He conceded, however, that "good solutions based on objective
analyses" could not always be applied due to political
considerations. (swa)