Scholar Arief Budiman optimistic about Indonesia's future

The following is from an interview with Prof. Arief Budiman, chairman of the Indonesian Program at the University of Melbourne. The interview took place in Melbourne on Tuesday shortly before the announcement of the new Cabinet by President Abdurrahman Wahid, better known as Gus Dur.

The "axis force" played an important role in the election of both Abdurrahman Wahid and Megawati Soekarnoputri. Can you give a thumbnail sketch of how the force came into being.

After ICMI (the Association of Muslim Intellectuals) was set up (in 1990), it tried to persuade the Nahdlatul Ulama (the biggest Indonesian Muslim organization) to join. But NU under Gus Dur refused. ICMI received support from Muhammadiyah instead. So the Islamic force was fragmented. NU on one side, with Muhammadiyah and Masyumi on the other, with the United Development Party (PPP) being more dominated by Muhammadiyah.

The axis force emerged when Amien Rais tried to find a stepping stone for himself. He found the strongest ground was Islam. But to consolidate the Islamic force, he needed Gus Dur. Amien obviously knew Gus Dur well. In his psychological state then, Gus Dur would be trapped into accepting the presidential nomination.

We then witnessed the transformation of Gus Dur. From supporting Megawati, he began to criticize her as being unaware of the democratic process. Then he was quoted as saying that he privately still supported Megawati. In the MPR (People's Consultative Assembly) it was another story.

Gus Dur thus was used as a stepping stone for Amien Rais to reach a higher ground, but at the same time, Gus Dur took advantage of his position in the axis force.

In the meantime, people like Yusril Ihza Mahendra did not approve of the force because he could see that it was Amien's tool for achieving his ambitions. Yusril was closer to Habibie and Soeharto. He was astute nonetheless. He was nominated for the presidency after Habibie stepped aside. And at the last minute he agreed to withdraw.

If Yusril had remained a candidate, Gus Dur might not have obtained 60 votes more than Megawati. Those who were still tacitly supporting Habibie might have voted for Yusril, and these might have eaten into the 60 votes. It might just have been possible that Megawati would have got more votes.

However, as it was, without Yusril, all the Islamic votes went to Gus Dur. That way, from the deal which was presumably made, Yusril secured a ministerial appointment that he probably would not have had otherwise. He had been essentially a spent force, seen as too close to Soeharto and Habibie. He had practically nowhere to go.

So I daresay that the axis force is populated by personalities with their own personal agendas. They united for political expediency, the Amien factor being a very important one. Amien got to where he wanted to be, maybe even higher, and Gus Dur arrived at his position.

So do you think the position of MPR speaker is the highest level Amien Rais can reach?

Well, it is a very high and prestigious position. It would have been very difficult for him to become president.

Did money politics play a role here?

I don't think Gus Dur would have been involved in money politics. Political 'horseplay' would be more his cup of tea.

Who else would have been involved in the deals?

Some Golkar personalities, I think. Especially the military. The military received a piece of the cake, bigger than their proportion in the MPR.

Do you think making these deals was a good idea?

In a sense, yes. That is politics. That Gus Dur became president is a good thing for everyone. The drawback is, just when we are so high on the reform spirit, we have to see people from the old regime emerging, while some new personalities, even high-profiles ones, did not get a chance. Gus Dur might have emphasized the expertise and the honesty of the people he appointed.

Psychologically it is questionable to have (then Indonesian Military chief, now political affairs minister) in a high position, for instance. It may disappoint those who wanted to see the Cabinet more reformist than it is. It may dampen the high reform spirit in the community.

In terms of performance?

I think it is fairly good. There is an element of regret, but nothing to arouse massive opposition.

Where is the strength in the duo of Gus Dur and Megawati?

Gus Dur's personality is highly informal (urakan), and his Islamic credentials are solid. He can achieve things that nobody else could ever dream of achieving. For instance, in relation to opening ties with Israel, only Gus Dur could do this. No other Islamic leader could without suffering a backlash from the Islamic camp.

Megawati, on the other hand, has the mass support. It's an interesting combination.

So the deals made with the axis force have been more advantageous than otherwise?

I would say yes. In politics we cannot usually achieve 100 percent of what we want. I daresay we achieve 60 percent to 70 percent. Without the compromise, Gus Dur would not have been elected president. The reform spirit may have been wounded, but in terms of programs, they are going well.

In your article in Kompas you mentioned that you regretted the fact that Gus Dur had not gone to the students to thank them. Will there be any negative ramifications from the oversight?

Psychologically, yes. The students deserve to receive the highest thanks. They have made big sacrifices without expecting individual rewards. Symbolically, if Gus Dur went to them, the students would receive a badly needed boost. Even if he were to be criticized by the students, it would still be worth it. He would have gained a great deal of respect from the students' camp. So the impact from not thanking the students will weigh on the image of the Cabinet.

Do you have any misgivings about the quality of the Cabinet?

I don't think Gus Dur will appoint people who have been involved in corruption, collusion and nepotism. That he himself guarantees. He also guarantees that he will control the excesses of his Cabinet. Thus, even if there are legacies of the New Order in there, I am sure they will do their best to show their reformist side. In fact, they will be super-reformist. They will not deviate from Gus Dur's programs.

Do you believe that Gus Dur will implement a federalist system?

I believe so. He did say that his government will implement the system without calling it federalism. It will depend on his skills in negotiating with different parties. Federalism as such is a sensitive issue, especially to the older military personalities. So how it is termed will be important.

Like "regional autonomy"?

Yes, regional autonomy with the power to elect their own governors, collect their own taxes, and probably others. If they have a skillful negotiating team, they may go far. For instance, if they can convince the ulemas in Aceh, who can in turn explain to the population that with this system they effectively get their independence, the team will be able to get the process of reconciliation rolling.

Let us call it "wide-ranging regional autonomy".

So it is possible?

The question is not whether it is possible or not. There is no alternative. The only alternative leads to rebellion and fragmentation of the country. Gus Dur is a pragmatist. Provided he is healthy, he is very dependable.

Lately his health seems to have improved.

Indeed. It is psychologically possible that his health was restored when he became president.

Gus Dur is willing to meet East Timorese independence leader Jose Alexandre "Xanana" Gusmao and the latter said he had no quarrel with the Indonesian people. The signal seems positive from both sides concerning East Timor. But what about relations with Australia?

I believe they will eventually normalize. Indonesia needs Australia and vice versa. Gus Dur may have been carried away when he made strong statements against Australia. However, Gus Dur has been known to change his stance.

He will see the necessity to normalize relations with Australia. Pressure will come from various directions, such as from the business sector. The balance now is more favorable to Indonesia. So Indonesia is the bigger stakeholder.

Besides, Australia is not a big factor. On balance, it is better to have good relations with it. With East Timor, a source of conflict in the past, out of the way, what is the use of having bad relations?

Are there specific reasons to have good relations with Australia?

Absolutely. Australia is a supplier of a good quality and fairly inexpensive education, and a generous source of scholarships and fellowships. Business ties are increasingly stronger and are benefiting Indonesia. People-to-people ties remain strong. Australia can be a balance for influences from the United States, Europe and Japan.

I believe that Gus Dur will see all that. He is not a fanatical or highly emotional person.

What are the prospects of Gus Dur handling corruption, collusion and nepotism?

I don't believe Gus Dur will do anything drastic. He may enforce the law concerning Soeharto's children but, most likely, not for Soeharto himself. With Soeharto, he may insist on him returning money without causing any loss of face, such as legal prosecution. Compare this to what Amien Rais has in mind, for example. Amien wants the money returned and Soeharto prosecuted, then granted amnesty. It would still cause a great loss of face. I believe Gus Dur will do something which will be seen as administering justice, but in a very flexible way.

In general, what danger can you see in this government?

Gus Dur's health, and his tendency to be unpredictable when he is unwell. So his Cabinet team will have to be very strong and skillful.

I can't see any danger coming from Megawati. She is surrounded by skillful people, her own advisors and Gus Dur himself. While the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle's people may be very respectful of her, hence reluctant to criticize her, she cannot expect the same from those in the National Awakening Party (which Gus Dur founded), who may be forthright in expressing their views.

Are you in general optimistic?

I am. There have obviously been compromises, but all indications are more positive than negative. At least that is how it looks on paper. (Dewi Anggraeni)