Saddam Hussein's fort is cracking

By Riza Sihbudi

JAKARTA (JP): Saddam Hussein's grip on power, which apparently was as solid as ever following the 1991 attack by the Allied coalition forces, now seems to be crumbling. The indication comes from the defection of his two sons-in-law Kamel Hassan and Saddam Kemal Hassan and their families and supporters, who obtained political asylum in Jordan recently.

The split in the leader's family circle and regime is not a strange thing. In the last four months Saddam has dismissed two family members: the interior minister Watban Ibrahim al-Hassan and defense minister Ali Hassan al-Majeed.

However, presidential guard chief Hussein Kamel's defection was dramatic because he was one of Iraq's "strong men" who have extensive knowledge of the armament program developed by Baghdad. It was not surprising that his defection was welcomed enthusiastically by Iraq's political opponents, especially the U.S. This is visible by the escalation of U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf and its vicinity, with the pretext of "protecting" Jordan and Kuwait from possible attacks by Iraq.

The question now is, what is the implication of the defections with regard to the future of Saddam Hussein's power?

The Ba'th Socialist Party started taking control of power in Iraq in 1968. The Ba'th, established in Damascus (Syria) in 1947, was the first political organization in Arab territory to put the principles of Pan-Arabism, Socialism, and national freedom on the political agenda of the Arab world.

In international matters, the Ba'th underlines a positive neutralism concept, marked by three aspects: (1) liberalization from foreign imperialism and domination; (2) subject to neither sides involved in the cold war; (3) connection of the Arab revolution with the liberation revolutions in Asian and African countries; (4) Arab participation in the efforts to alleviate tensions in the world and create international peace.

However, between 1980 and 1988, Iraq itself was involved in a war with its neighbor Iran. This war drained the energy and resources of both Iraq and Iran. Both countries also suffered heavy human losses. And from 1990 to 1991, Iraq was involved in the Kuwait crisis and war.

The main foreign exchange earning for Iraq is oil. In the 1970s Iraq was the second biggest oil producer -- after Saudi Arabia -- in the Arab world. Towards 1980 Iraq's oil production was 3.4 million barrels per day, which contributed US$21 billion to the state budget. But the two wars experienced by Iraq have reduced its oil production. Even now, Iraq is still under a United Nations sanction which does not allow Iraq to sell its oil to the international market.

The current policy of the Iraqi government with regard to main priorities, especially after the ending of the Kuwait crisis and Gulf War, is the reconstruction of the socio-economic infrastructure which was heavily damaged as a result of the Allied bombing during the war. However, the policy faces big obstacles with the UN economic sanctions and embargo still in force. As a result, Iraq is not capable as yet to reinstate its economic condition.

Therefore, by various means, Baghdad is making tremendous efforts to have the embargo and sanctions revoked. Besides, of course, continuing to make economic transactions with countries which show no enmity towards Baghdad. With all the limitations, Baghdad is still capable of reconstructing a number of buildings and infrastructure which were heavily damaged. Therefore, Baghdad still rejects Resolution No.986 by the United Nations Security Council (April 1995) which only allows Iraq to sell its oil in a limited way.

The defection of Saddam's sons-in-law has bolstered Iraq's enemies who had previously watched Baghdad's endurance under UN intimidation. However, the defections will not automatically bring Saddam's power down.

The defections may very well be hard, but it is not a fatal blow to Saddam. First, the resilience of Saddam's power has often been tested against attacks from both outside and inside, as well as from a combination of both. With a leader of Saddam's type, the occurrence of a defection usually further strengthens the leader's power. Although increased mutual distrust in the political elite circles can not be ruled out.

Second, Industry Minister Kamel Hassan's defection did not meet with a positive response from Iraq's opposition in exile. This is clearly seen from the statement issued by the anti-Saddam Iraqi Syi'ah group based in Teheran. The group, under the leadership of Muhammad Baqer Hakeem said that they do not "intend" to form a coalition with Kamel.

For Hakeem and his followers, Kamel belongs to the group that is also responsible for the slaughtering launched by the Saddam regime (since he assumed power in July 1979) against the Syi'ah, including their charismatic leader Ayatullah Baqer Sadr. A cool reaction was also shown by the Kurdish-Iraqi group and other opposition groups in exile. As it is known, one of the main failures of the Iraqi opposition members in their efforts to bring Saddam down, is the difficulty to unify the groups which have indeed various ideological backgrounds or political interests.

Finally, but not less importantly, is the dilemma faced by the U.S. and its allies in viewing the position of Saddam's power. On the one hand they seem to want Saddam's downfall. On the other, they have not found the right figure to replace Saddam. For the Iraqi opposition groups in exile, the West is indeed not serious in its efforts to bring Saddam down. The proof is that the West always refuses to supply them armament.

Apparently Iranian international relations expert Dr. Mohammad Javad Larijani was right when he said four years ago that the West actually still needs a figure like Saddam, who can be used as a "monster" to instill fear into the oil-rich Arab monarchies in the Gulf region so they continue seeking protection under the umbrella of the U.S. and its allies. In other words, instead of choosing an Iraq without Saddam, they prefer a "toothless" Saddam.

The writer is a researcher at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences.

Window: For the Iraqi opposition groups in exile, the West is indeed not serious in its efforts to bring Saddam down.