SAARC's future: Bad precedents, but there are hopeful signs

Parmanand, South Asian Studies Foundation, New Delhi, The Statesman, Asia News Network, Calcutta

No SAARCC summit had been held amidst so much controversy or, for that matter, against such a controversial background. Some analysts feel that the very fact that the 11th summit could be held should be considered a big achievement.

When the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) emerged on Dec. 8, 1985 in Dhaka, South Asians thought better days had begun for the region. But 13 years later, SAARC's most important states India and Pakistan, went nuclear, suggesting that bilateral confrontation was not of the past.

In any case, SAARC remains far behind regional bodies like the European Union or ASEAN or even the Arab League.

The circumstances under which the Kathmandu summit in early January was held had all the potential for setting bad precedents. For the first time, the duration was curtailed at the eleventh hour. Instead of being held for three days as scheduled, it was held only for two days.

No summit's duration had been tampered with at the last moment.

In any case, it was the first opportunity for Musharraf to participate in any SAARC summit, and he failed to give a good account of himself.

The Kathmandu summit also saw the mechanism of a retreat being done away with. The device of a retreat had become very useful since it provided a good opportunity for informal get-togethers of heads of state or government in a relaxed atmosphere. It should again be hoped that this is not repeated.

The background against which the Kathmandu summit was held had hardly left any doubt that there would be a great deal of stress on the eradication of terrorism in the region in the Kathmandu Declaration. Relevantly, every summit finally produces a declaration. It is no coincidence that three South Asian states -- the core state, India, the host state, Nepal, and the southern state, Sri Lanka -- are facing serious challenges from various terrorist outfits.

In the case of Nepal, the very political system is the target. Maoist guerrillas have been harping on the abolition of the constitutional monarchy and the establishment of a republic. At most they were ready to settle for a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution, quite hopeful that such an assembly would recommend abolition of the constitutional monarchical framework. In the case of Sri Lanka, the very existence of the state is threatened by the demand of the Tamil Eelam (homeland). The Indian state -- the most democratic and resource-rich of all South Asian states -- is faced with terrorist challenges on a number of fronts.

Hearteningly, India's initiative in making fight against terrorism a priority issue in the Kathmandu Declaration did not meet with any opposition. In fact, Pakistan did not indulge in hair-splitting by differentiating between what it calls "freedom fighters" and terrorists. Not only consensus but unanimity was visible on this issue at the meetings of the Council of Ministers and the standing committee (comprising foreign secretaries) that preceded the Kathmandu summit.

Five full paragraphs were devoted to the problem of terrorism in the Declaration issued on Jan. 6. The heads of state or government have "affirmed their determination to redouble efforts, collectively as well as individually, to prevent and suppress terrorism in all its forms and manifestations".

The seven South Asian leaders also promised to "accelerate" the "full implementation" of the 1987 SAARC Convention on Terrorism "within a definite time-frame."

Coincidentally or ironically, the 1987 Convention on Suppression of Terrorism was adopted at the Kathmandu summit of SAARC -- the first in Nepal. It was stressed by the then Sri Lankan President, Junius Richard Jayewardene, that terrorist activities of the LTTE had become quite painful.

The IPKF was facing a difficult task in Sri Lanka. Representatives of SAARC member-states would meet at Colombo to make suggestions to make the Convention on Terrorism more effective and result-oriented. Terrorism might not end because of rhetoric but there never was so much consensus on the importance of its eradication. Will it see the South Asian region more peaceful in the new millennium?

Needless to stress, economic cooperation has been the most significant thrust of the SAARC's Charter adopted in 1985. Among the objectives mentioned in Article 1 of the Charter are promotion of the welfare of the South Asian people, acceleration of economic growth, social progress and promotion of active collaboration and mutual assistance in the economic, social, cultural, technical and scientific fields.

The situation on this front, though, is far from satisfactory. Intra-SAARC exports thus far have reached the figures of only 4.3 per cent. Intra-SAARC imports have by now reached only the figure of four per cent of the total imports. This despite several concessions having been given under the Sapta -- which has been effective since 1995.

It is worth mentioning that the intra-regional exports share have reached 22 per cent in ASEAN, 51 per cent in the NAFTA and 64 per cent in the EU. Also, intra-regional imports are on the increase in other regional arrangements.

Serious efforts seems to have been made to make the South Asian Free Trade Area a concrete reality by the end of this year as also to make the South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangement more effective and beneficial. SAARC leaders have directed the Council of Ministers to expedite the next round of trade negotiations under Sapta and also broaden its scope. The leaders also decided to accelerate cooperation in the core areas of trade, finance and investment to realize the goal of an integrated South Asian economy.

The overall impact of the declaration will be felt when details are worked out and translated into reality. But many fail to be optimistic about SAARC in its present form because of Indo- Pakistan relations. But the overall framework may lead to more sub-regional cooperation under the core leadership of India. If economic relations between India and Bhutan, India and Nepal, and India and Sri Lanka are any guide, a beginning has already been made in that direction.