Russia's election jitters

The real test of Russian democracy is not the outcome of Sunday's presidential election, but the manner in which it is conducted and whether the results are respected. Russians have a fondness for histrionics, and most of the warnings about rigged counts and violent reactions seem overdrawn. But a disturbing climate of instability hovers over the election, some of it needlessly stoked by the candidates themselves. If democracy is to become established in Russia, Russians must not trifle with the election process.

Boris Yeltsin contributed to the uncertainty last week with a bold declaration that he would win an outright majority of votes Sunday. That would return Yeltsin to the Kremlin without the inconvenience of a runoff election this summer, most likely against Gennadi Zyuganov, the Communist candidate. While Yeltsin's prediction may have been intended to give his candidacy a sense of inevitability, it only added to already widespread and serious concern in Russian political circles that the government would manipulate the ballot count to give him more than half the vote. The Communist Party has repeatedly warned that the government plans to fix the election.

Given Yeltsin's frisky behavior in recent days, including an exuberant rendition of the twist that must have left his heart doctor speechless, it was hard to know if the Russian leader was just boasting or even realized his comments might heighten fears of ballot abuse.

The fear of election fraud is doubly dangerous because it can undermine the legitimacy of the election results and give the losers a pretext to reject the outcome or even attempt to overturn it by urging their supporters into the streets. A country with little democratic tradition cannot afford political maneuvers that reinforce doubts about the integrity of the electoral system.

The elections held in Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union have been largely free of fraud. If Yeltsin had wanted to fix an election, he would have started last December when Communist Party candidates looked strong going into the voting for a new parliament. The Communists did well, and there was little evidence of ballot-rigging. That makes it all the harder to understand why Yeltsin would say anything to encourage skepticism now.

The other threat is repudiation of today's vote by one or more of the losing candidates. Russian political leaders have been less than adamant in declaring their intention to honor the results, and almost every candidate has stirred anxiety by talking openly about the possibility of civil unrest if the country proves to be as divided as it seems.

Russia has seen more than enough political violence this century. Large numbers of voters are bound to be unhappy with the results of today's election. Of 11 candidates, only the top 2 finishers can move on to a runoff election. But even the losers and their supporters should recognize that the people of an independent Russia are picking a leader in free elections for the first time. That is a right and privilege that all Russians should fiercely protect.

-- The New York Times