Russia may exploit U.S. arms offer

By Ron Popeski

MOSCOW (Reuters): Russia is likely to treat a U.S. offer of military cooperation with caution next month's summit in Slovenia, and may try to exploit it in stiffening resistance to Washington's planned anti-missile shield.

Political analysts, speaking on the eve of talks in Budapest between Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, said softer U.S. positions reflected a realization that confrontation served no purpose.

They may also be a by-product of the fact that it will be more difficult for President George W. Bush to push through his programs in a Senate now under the control of the Democrats.

A report in Monday's New York Times said Washington planned to offer to buy Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missiles as part of incentives to win Moscow's agreement to let Washington to build a missile shield.

Russian ministers said they would examine any U.S. offer -- once received. But they restated opposition to the basis of the U.S. missile defense plan, which would mean the scrapping or alteration of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty, defended by Moscow as the foundation of decades of disarmament.

"If the United States wants to buy our weapons, we are willing to examine a request in accordance with our international obligations and internal procedures," Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said in a statement issued on Tuesday.

"But this has nothing to do with our position in defending the cornerstone of strategic stability -- the ABM treaty."

Ivanov said the S-300 could form the basis of the less elaborate missile defense system proposed by Moscow earlier this year, and that there was plenty of opportunity for cooperation.

Commentator Mikhail Leontiev dismissed the offer as a crude way to sound out Russian public opinion, prompted by lack of unity with Washington's allies and the changes in the Senate.

"This is not even an attempt to buy off someone. It is a trial balloon, using a lure so cheap that Russia's leadership will not go for it," Leontiev said on state-run ORT television.

"What is required is a coherent explanation of why we need this U.S. anti-missile system. And why do we need the eastward expansion of NATO? Who is our friend and who isn't?"

Other analysts suggested a weakening of the U.S. position and an attempt to build on improved ties between Washington and Moscow ahead of Putin's June 16 meeting with Bush in Ljubljana.

"The United States wants a formula to make the new system acceptable to Russia," said defense analyst Alexander Golts.

"Judging from the statements so far, Russia views the offer as a weak spot in the U.S. position, and will now merely increase its opposition to attempts to dismantle the ABM."

He said the S-300 offer was also an attempt to link the U.S. scheme to Moscow's own plan.

Russia's proposal was based on tactical missiles and relied heavily on consultations to avert missile launches. Moscow has questioned from the outset the U.S. premise that "rogue states" like North Korea, Iran and Iraq could pose such a threat.

Russia was nonetheless unlikely to agree quickly to any scheme, however lucrative.

"Russia is very sensitive about any possibility that its advanced technology could be used in a system later directed against it," said Yevgeny Volk of the Heritage Foundation.

"I expect a cautious reaction, with no quick decision."

Ivanov's talks in Washington last week underscored an improvement in ties following the antagonism prompted by Bush's approval of the anti-missile initiative and expulsions of diplomats.

Both sides expressed commitment to consultation, though Powell made it plain that a time would come when the United States would stop consulting and proceed with missile defense.

The two men meet on Wednesday, on the sidelines of a NATO gathering in Budapest, to smooth the way for summits in Slovenia and in July at the G8 summit of developed countries in Italy.

Commentators warned against high expectations in Slovenia. Differences remain wide on other issues, including U.S.-British proposals to alter sanctions on Iraq.

"I foresee no breakthrough in Slovenia, but the two leaders' first meeting in half a year is a step forward," he said.

"The change in Congress has probably contributed somewhat to the softening of the U.S. position as it will be more difficult for Bush to push his ideas on missile defense."

But Golts said a flexible Russian approach could help.

"We must not discount Putin's ability to compromise on issues," he said. He has shown this in accepting the change in leadership in Yugoslavia and restoring relations with NATO."