Russia faces tough options on Chechnya

By Oleg Shchedrov

MOSCOW (Reuters): After a fast and largely painless advance in Chechnya, Russian troops are just a gunshot away from its capital Grozny, but Moscow appears increasingly uncertain about its further plans in the rebel province.

Russian troops can dig in along the Terek River and spend winter reinforcing their newly established security zone in northern Chechnya or venture a hazardous attempt to seize Grozny and the rest of the region to try to end the crisis fast.

The new Chechen crusade launched by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, whom President Boris Yeltsin has named as his preferred successor, has won unprecedented public support in Russia, humiliated by the failure of the previous campaign in 1994-1996.

People also like the new style of combat adopted by the military, which focuses on the use of artillery and aircraft to minimize human losses, much as NATO used against Yugoslavia.

Troops have moved in gradually, bypassing villages where they were most exposed to rebel attacks, and seized a third of Chechnya in a month, meeting little resistance, although tens of thousands of refugees have fled.

The new Chechen campaign has so far been a world apart from the 1994-1996 war in which thousands of untrained young soldiers died in vain in badly planned operations or were killed in hit- and-run rebel attacks.

But many respected Russian politicians have urged Putin to stop at this stage and focus efforts on reinstating law and restoring the economy in northern Chechnya to make its model attractive for Chechens living in the rebel-controlled areas.

"I believe we should stop on the Terek for the time being, building up the security zone," said ex-prime minister Yevgeny Primakov, a potentially strong presidential candidate whose party is the parliamentary election race favorite.

Supporters of the cautious approach say that in the densely populated area beyond the Terek the troops would either have to abandon their tactic of using long-distance bombardment to save soldiers' lives or risk huge civilian casualties applying it.

Another argument of the cautious is that fogs which always cover the North Caucasus from mid-November until April would make the use of the air force, so far the main battle force, impractical.

Putin, for whom big human losses would mean the end of his political career, has said he would not allow the repetition of the 1994-1996 war, when Russia lost thousands of troops thrown to "restore the constitutional order" in Chechnya.

"In the ideal world Putin should postpone the new onslaught until spring, when he can hope for a victory valuable in the run- up to presidential election," said one public relations expert involved in building up Putin's image.

"In the meantime he could score well building up Russian- controlled Chechnya and dealing with more than 160,000 refugees."

But the temptation to finish off the Chechnya affair in one powerful strike is alive in the hearts of many military men encouraged by their relative success so far.

"I think Grozny, like other settled areas, will be freed from terrorists and the terrorists themselves destroyed," deputy chief of general staff Valery Manilov said on Wednesday, although he denied a big frontal assault was in the offing.

His words revived memories of the nightmare three-month-long storming of the Chechen capital in 1995 when raw conscripts deprived of any guidance were killed in their hundreds and the rebels easily burnt Russian tanks trapped in the streets.

The military, who are pressing hard to carry on with the campaign this year, say the experienced 50,000-strong force they have now is a far cry from the demoralized army they had in the last war and makes the task realistic.

Another argument is that the Chechen forces could use the time-out to regroup and recover -- something the military believe cost them in the past campaign.

Besides, a delay which would embrace two elections could demoralize troops and change the mood among politicians.

"Local military conflict should not be stretched in time," the Novaya Gazeta weekly wrote. "Otherwise other forces with their own interests in the region like Caspian oil, arms and drug smuggling, could get involved in decision-making."

The Chechens have said they will switch to their old hit-and- run tactic against Russian forces in the north with attacks by small groups of fighters who can seldom be located and chased.