Rowing between cliffs: RI and post-Sept.11

Siswo Pramono PhD Graduate Student in Political Science and International Relations School of Social Science The Australian National University Canberra

The U.S.-led "war on terror" is not a war between the West and Islam. However being a country with the largest Muslim population in the world, Indonesia cannot escape the impact of this war.

As the U.S.-led invasion in Afghanistan failed to apprehend Osama bin Laden, the hunt for groups and persons suspected to have links with al-Qaeda began in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the (Southern) Philippines. By then Southeast Asia was considered by U.S. strategists as the "second front" of the war on terror.

Such a campaign has resulted in the arrests of some Indonesian citizens and leaders of militant groups. Not many of the cases could be brought to trial, reportedly because of lack of evidence. This "second front" of war on terror then moved from Southeast Asia to the Gulf.

The Gulf, for the U.S., represents a two-fold issue. The issue of dismantling the Iraqi weapon of mass destruction has been lingering for the last four years. But the decision to topple Saddam Hussein was made just about six months ago. If the U.S. proceeds with its project of regime change in Iraq, Indonesia must prepare itself for another impact of war on terror.

Indonesia must, again, row between cliffs: Between principle and practical policy; between domestic and international pressures.

There is a contention between the UN Charter's principle of peaceful means of conflict resolution and the U.S. realpolitik. While Indonesia must help promote such a principle, it cannot escape the political reality of the UN Security Council.

The position of each permanent member of the Council is ambivalent. The United Kingdom, despite domestic opposition, will likely join, albeit in a limited term, the U.S. war with Iraq. And the French would not likely challenge U.S. determination.

Russia will prioritize establishing better relations, economic and otherwise, with the U.S. and the West, then to protect Iraq. Besides, Russia has faced the acute problem of Muslim insurgency in Chechnya.

China, too, despite the rift with the U.S. over Taiwan, would unlikely take an antagonistic position, at least for two reasons. China has been bothered by the issue of Muslim insurgency in some of its regions. And the U.S. has encircled China with its current engagements in Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, and South East Asia.

As such, the U.S. might wage war against Iraq without worrying much about the formal position of the UN Security Council.

The Arab states are now more united than before in resisting the U.S. strike on Iraq. But the major powers in Asia-Pacific region, notably Australia and Japan, will likely take sides with the U.S. Indonesia must carefully take this new global balance into consideration before positioning itself in the post-Sept. 11 political reality.

The Indonesian government will also face mounting pressure at home. Domestic politics will compel the government to assert its political position regarding the U.S. project of regime change in Iraq. Experience during the U.S.-led invasion in Afghanistan proved how difficult this was.

The government must anticipate the worst case scenario in accordance with the principles of democracy and the rule of law. While debates about U.S. foreign policy on Iraq represents a healthy public discourse, any attempt to intimidate expatriates (e.g. sweeping against U.S. citizens) or threaten foreign institutions in Indonesia must be prevented.

While harsh criticisms against U.S. policy on Iraq (or anti- American expressions) issued by militant groups or individuals must not be considered as crime, "hate crime" (e.g. against particular nationality, religion, race, etc.) must be dealt with according to the law.

Radical ideas, religious and otherwise, must be allowed as far as they are expressed within the corridor of democracy and provided that they are not materialized in a way that violates the law.

President Megawati Soekarnoputri's diplomacy during the U.S.- led invasion in Afghanistan was effective and thus this strategy can be employed again to mitigate the impact in Indonesia of the U.S. confrontation policy towards Iraq. The strategy must reconcile principle with practical policy; and hence accommodate both the international and domestic pressures.

Indonesia must press on peaceful ways in dismantling Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. Such a solution will save millions of Iraqi people and promote stability in the Gulf and beyond.

This principle, however, must be implemented in a practical policy, taking into account our efforts to survive the multi- dimensional crisis. The diplomacy must reconcile Indonesia's effort to promote peace and stability in South Asia and the Middle East with the country's economic interests in the Asia- Pacific, particularly North America, and Western Europe.

The writer works at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.