Risks in evolving society create paranoia

Ari A. Perdana, Center for Strategic and International Studies, School of Economics, University of Indonesia

Everyday, we are at risk of being robbed on the street. We also take a big risk by traveling on one of our infamous death trains or being hijacked while taking a plane. Some people are facing the risk of a stock market crash or being losers in a political dispute. Others are facing other risks: Poverty and hunger, sexual harassment or domestic violence.

This generation seems to have been born in riskier times than previous generations. As life becomes more complicated, more variables are involved in determining the outcome of an action or decision. That increases uncertainty. The more uncertain, the greater the risk one is facing.

The reason why we take risks is to gain the expected return. This is what contrasts between modern and traditional societies. In traditional societies, future and uncertainty are the authority of the gods. Pain or prosperity depends on the will of the gods. Therefore, the concept of risk is limited to natural or external risk. While humans can do nothing against such types of risk, they try to prevent risks by sticking to ways to avoid the gods' anger.

Another traditional form of risk protection is social institutions, such as the family. In traditional societies, the family is not only an emotional contract between two individuals, but also an economic unit. In times of unemployment, sickness or when elders must be taken care of, the family provides economic and social insurance for its members. Consequently, marriage is a "contract" that involves two big families, not only between two individuals. This pattern of relationship continues to exist in present Asian societies, partly due to the same reasons.

Some people, who have broken from their traditional ways, see the future and uncertainty as something to possibly benefit from. Such a paradigm shift transformed the human perspective on nature. Instead of accepting nature for what it was, often a constraint, people began to conquer it. This has led to perceived progress in civilization, but on the other hand also created more advanced risks. Giddens (1999) called it manufactured risk; a risk correlated to human activities. The invention of nuclear power has created the risk of radiation leakage. The progress on cellular communication technology has created the risk of brain cancer. Changing lifestyles and consumption habits have led to exposure to modern disease, and so forth.

The advances in civilization have also created changing forms of risk protection. The family has now relatively fewer roles in providing insurance. Insurance is provided by modern institutions: The market. Instead of relying on their relatives, people prefer commercial insurance policies. In western countries, sometimes senior citizens prefer to live in special homes rather than with their children. Sometimes the market can not provide such protection. In such cases it should be the state which provides the security infrastructure and a social insurance policy, such as a social safety net or employment benefit.

There is another concept of risk in the modern world, which is called virtual risk. Unlike the other two, virtual risk is not something that would actually happen following someone's decision. It is something that someone believes would happen, a perception about reality that further affects one's decision. For example, the events of Sept. 11 in the United States or the train accident in Central Java would affect people's perception about safety regarding public transportation. As a result, many refrain from traveling by plane or train, some stop traveling altogether.

Virtual risk is very subjective and immeasurable. We can calculate our chance of being hit by a truck when crossing the street, based on our walking speed and the speed of the truck. Scientists can calculate the probability that the earth will collide with a giant comet, based on a number of variables. But what can we say about the chance of someone being in the same plane with a group of suicidal terrorists who plan to hit a building? While it is true that according to statistics, the probability is very small, about one in several million. But in this case, statistics mean nothing.

Risk creates higher demand for security, which increases costs to society. We have already seen tighter security in the airport, shopping malls and office buildings. More resources, are allocated to meet this increased demand for security.

Another cost is a more limited mobility. Tighter security checks, more checkpoints, more requirements for visa applications, all reduce people's mobility. Furthermore, these security measures also reduce individual freedoms. A portion of individual privacy has been taken away to compensate for the insecure environment. Some security measures were criticized by non-U.S. citizens, such as door-to-door searches for Muslim students in the U.S. following the evidence that Muslim terrorists were behind the hijackings.

Greater risk in society has also created a paranoid society. A society in which no one trusts the other. That means that perceived advances in civilization has increased fear, which may exceed its benefit. Fear, says Master Yoda to Anakin Skywalker in The Phantom Menace, leads to anger. While anger leads to hatred, and hatred leads to suffering.