RI warned gainst sea level rise

RI warned gainst sea level rise

By Melody Kemp

IZMIR, Turkey (JP): Climate is definitely in the air. Kyoto is
debating who does what about fossil fuel emissions and El Nino
has been creating havoc with droughts, crop losses and
devastating fires throughout the Asia Pacific region.

A recent scientific workshop in Turkey conceded that sea level
rises are inevitable -- so they talked about things to do while
waiting for the flood.

Indonesia has a vast expanse of coastline, and that, experts
said, makes Indonesia very vulnerable to changes in sea level.

Sean Foley, an environmental expert living in Indonesia, has
been investigating planning needs in the face of climate change
and sea level rises in the Asia region.

"At present Indonesia is considered to be at high but
not critical risk," he said.

"But if you look at projections to the year 2020, Indonesia
moves into the critical field, as climate change and sea level
rises may well bring typhoons and storm surges that currently
effect the Philippines and Bangladesh further south," Foley
added.

Indonesia has been ranked by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change as one of the countries most vulnerable to sea
level rises, because of its archipelagic structure and huge
population.

But surprisingly, Indonesia chose not to participate in a
detailed case study program that was funded by the United States.
Other countries such as Turkey, Malaysia, Vietnam, China and
Japan all participated.

There was total consensus amongst the delegates who
represented established and emerging states around the Aegean,
Mediterranean, Black and Baltic Seas, that planning is needed
now, to buffer or mitigate the effects of inevitable sea level
rises on interdependent human, animal and plant life.

"Coastal ecosystems do not obey political demands," said Aydin
Guney, head of the Environmental Research Center at the
University of Ege in his opening remarks.

"We cannot wait for the politicians to agree, nor can we
afford to forfeit our responsibilities for the future."

Gerit Heckster, the editor of the International Journal of
Land Degradation said about 60 percent of Indonesia's land mass
was vulnerable to the effects of sea level rises.

"Java may be reduced in size by anything up to 30 percent if
the predictions are right," Heckster, also a member of a European
Union committee on the environment, said.

Protection

"If that is not enough," he went on, "I hear the vulnerable
tidal swamp forests in Sumatra and Kalimantan are being converted
to field. What a short sighted move that is. In 50 years those
areas will be inundated, and tidal surges will make areas further
inland saline."

Mangroves and coral reefs are the best nature-given protection
from the worst effects of storm surges and coastal erosion. The
sea, thought by most scientists as set to rise at least one
meter, if not more, by the year 2060, will have a devastating
effect on coastal farmlands, fishing communities and on coastal
developments.

"The economics of climate change are a nightmare for
Indonesia," said Foley. "Cities, ports, airports, major roads,
rice fields, market gardens and utilities are all near the sea...
The bulk of Indonesians live by the sea."

He added that the Panel on Climate Change estimates it will
cost US$800,000 per kilometer to protect the Indonesian
coastline.

"But the calculation was done a few years ago and did not
include protecting current infrastructure," he reminded. With
Indonesia's 81,100 kilometers of coastline, "Some will be safe,
but even if only half needs protecting, when multiplied by what I
suspect is a very conservative (estimate), then we are talking
about a huge number of dollars."

New rich

It became clear as the recent workshop rolled on, that the New
Rich in both Europe and Asia constitute a major and growing
environmental hazard.

Delegates saw for themselves the new housing enclaves that
scar virtually every bay of the once pristine Aegean and
Mediterranean coast destroying native flora and dislocating birds
and animals dependent on the ecosystem.

If current computer models are right, beach house owners
may in the future be able to avoid the long walk to the beach
they have now and simply fall out bed and into the briny water.

Global climate change forces developers and planners to think
ahead. Expensive resorts such as Serangan, Bali are at risk of
becoming picturesque swamps in 10 to 15 years time, coastal roads
and ports built on reclaimed land, inundated.

Indonesia is currently experiencing a foretaste of things to
come. The climatic sneak preview brought on by the El Nino
Southern Oscillation has bitten deep into Indonesia's ability to
produce food, drying up rice fields and withering vegetables.

The smoke haze from Kalimantan and Sumatra, like global
warming and rises in sea level, is no respecter of national
boundaries. Fire and water usually cancel each other out. In this
case, the two spell cumulative headaches for Indonesia if action
is not taken now.