RI warned gainst sea level rise

By Melody Kemp

IZMIR, Turkey (JP): Climate is definitely in the air. Kyoto is debating who does what about fossil fuel emissions and El Nino has been creating havoc with droughts, crop losses and devastating fires throughout the Asia Pacific region.

A recent scientific workshop in Turkey conceded that sea level rises are inevitable -- so they talked about things to do while waiting for the flood.

Indonesia has a vast expanse of coastline, and that, experts said, makes Indonesia very vulnerable to changes in sea level.

Sean Foley, an environmental expert living in Indonesia, has been investigating planning needs in the face of climate change and sea level rises in the Asia region.

"At present Indonesia is considered to be at high but not critical risk," he said.

"But if you look at projections to the year 2020, Indonesia moves into the critical field, as climate change and sea level rises may well bring typhoons and storm surges that currently effect the Philippines and Bangladesh further south," Foley added.

Indonesia has been ranked by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as one of the countries most vulnerable to sea level rises, because of its archipelagic structure and huge population.

But surprisingly, Indonesia chose not to participate in a detailed case study program that was funded by the United States. Other countries such as Turkey, Malaysia, Vietnam, China and Japan all participated.

There was total consensus amongst the delegates who represented established and emerging states around the Aegean, Mediterranean, Black and Baltic Seas, that planning is needed now, to buffer or mitigate the effects of inevitable sea level rises on interdependent human, animal and plant life.

"Coastal ecosystems do not obey political demands," said Aydin Guney, head of the Environmental Research Center at the University of Ege in his opening remarks.

"We cannot wait for the politicians to agree, nor can we afford to forfeit our responsibilities for the future."

Gerit Heckster, the editor of the International Journal of Land Degradation said about 60 percent of Indonesia's land mass was vulnerable to the effects of sea level rises.

"Java may be reduced in size by anything up to 30 percent if the predictions are right," Heckster, also a member of a European Union committee on the environment, said.

Protection

"If that is not enough," he went on, "I hear the vulnerable tidal swamp forests in Sumatra and Kalimantan are being converted to field. What a short sighted move that is. In 50 years those areas will be inundated, and tidal surges will make areas further inland saline."

Mangroves and coral reefs are the best nature-given protection from the worst effects of storm surges and coastal erosion. The sea, thought by most scientists as set to rise at least one meter, if not more, by the year 2060, will have a devastating effect on coastal farmlands, fishing communities and on coastal developments.

"The economics of climate change are a nightmare for Indonesia," said Foley. "Cities, ports, airports, major roads, rice fields, market gardens and utilities are all near the sea... The bulk of Indonesians live by the sea."

He added that the Panel on Climate Change estimates it will cost US$800,000 per kilometer to protect the Indonesian coastline.

"But the calculation was done a few years ago and did not include protecting current infrastructure," he reminded. With Indonesia's 81,100 kilometers of coastline, "Some will be safe, but even if only half needs protecting, when multiplied by what I suspect is a very conservative (estimate), then we are talking about a huge number of dollars."

New rich

It became clear as the recent workshop rolled on, that the New Rich in both Europe and Asia constitute a major and growing environmental hazard.

Delegates saw for themselves the new housing enclaves that scar virtually every bay of the once pristine Aegean and Mediterranean coast destroying native flora and dislocating birds and animals dependent on the ecosystem.

If current computer models are right, beach house owners may in the future be able to avoid the long walk to the beach they have now and simply fall out bed and into the briny water.

Global climate change forces developers and planners to think ahead. Expensive resorts such as Serangan, Bali are at risk of becoming picturesque swamps in 10 to 15 years time, coastal roads and ports built on reclaimed land, inundated.

Indonesia is currently experiencing a foretaste of things to come. The climatic sneak preview brought on by the El Nino Southern Oscillation has bitten deep into Indonesia's ability to produce food, drying up rice fields and withering vegetables.

The smoke haze from Kalimantan and Sumatra, like global warming and rises in sea level, is no respecter of national boundaries. Fire and water usually cancel each other out. In this case, the two spell cumulative headaches for Indonesia if action is not taken now.