Revolution in China may take place on the Web

By John Gittings

LONDON: The Chinese government should not have felt threatened by the New Culture Forum website -- shut down earlier this month by State Security for its "reactionary content."

New Culture, based in Shandong province, argued mildly that Chinese political debate should move towards a new "win-win" consensus. It is inspired by an old-style radical from the early 1980s, who believes in "dialog not confrontation".

In four months it registered just over 2,200 hits -- hardly the stuff of revolution. But from Beijing's perspective, even one independent website may sow dragon's teeth of discontent across the country unless scotched promptly.

New Culture was launched in April on the China-based news magazine www.163.net. When the censors moved in on 163.net, it re-registered on web host Million Internet Company (www.byone.com.cn). The Shandong group managed the site from commercial internet cafes across China to avoid detection.

They used the false name of Xin Wenming, identical in sound to the Chinese characters for New Culture. In a statement after it was closed down, "Mr Xin" apologized "for using dishonest means", but said it was justified because of the Chinese government's repression.

The site has now been moved from the mainland to the U.S.- based Human Rights In China (HRIC) website (www.hrichina.org).

Huang Qi, the author of another offending site, was less fortunate than the anonymous Xin. He was arrested in June after his bulletin board for missing people in China began to carry discussion on democracy and human rights. It, too, can now be found (in Chinese) on the HRIC site.

Beijing may have taken time to wake up to the internet revolution, but it is not underestimating it now. A few days after New Culture was shut down, the Communist Party deployed its most powerful propaganda voice, the People's Daily newspaper, to warn 60 million members to take the web seriously.

This strong language reveals the extent of Beijing's concern -- which seems to stem from the personal interest of Chinese president and party boss Jiang Zemin himself.

The People's Daily commentary described the world-wide Internet revolution as "great, rapid and extensive" (da-kuai- guang) -- adjectives once used to hail China's Great Leap Forward (1958-60). The opportunity it offered for media management and propaganda, it continued, was a "new phenomenon" (xin shiwu) -- the term once used to described the alleged achievements of the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976).

The thrust of the argument was almost military in style. The Internet, said the People's Daily, has become a new arena for struggle between the "correct propaganda" of the government and the "reactionary, superstitious and pornographic" content of China's enemies.

Party authorities all over China should form crack units of web fighters who understand politics and news management, and have a good command of foreign languages, to wage battle with the enemy "at home and abroad".

No one can accuse the inheritors of the Chinese revolution of underestimating the power of the internet revolution. They share Bill Clinton's fervent belief, openly expressed on his summit in Beijing two years ago, that the web will be the harbinger of Chinese democracy. The only difference is that they want to stop it happening.

Is the Internet really such a potent force in China, and if so, can it be exploited, by either side, for a political purpose? The argument is still open. The latest estimate by the official China Internet Network Information Center shows the number of users at 16.9 million in June his year -- about the same number as in South Korea with a population one-twentieth of China's size.

The real figure to watch is the rate of growth, which the Center calculates at just under 90 per cent in the first six months of this year. This may not continue at the same rate: the high cost of access may be as important a limitation as the ability to purchase the hardware.

Yet it would be unwise -- and contrary to experience elsewhere in the world -- to make projections too low for the future. With the Chinese media now devoting significant space to Internet news, access to the web is already a major status symbol for China's fast-growing urban middle class.

The latest government regulations are as much directed against pornography and false advertising (especially in the medical field) as against political non-conformity. But they also seek to limit -- indeed to outlaw -- the dissemination of unauthorized news, whether from home or abroad.

All providers must now obtain a certificate from the Ministry of Information Industry before "releasing information" on a website. Beijing has also boosted the promotion of nine official news-websites operated by national news organizations such as the People's Daily.

The latest government move will accentuate a trend already noticeable among Chinese commercial sites away from news towards entertainment and lifestyle, consumer affairs and e-commerce.

Some of the lifestyle sites tackle gender and sex issues with a frankness which would finish off the last remaining Party veterans if they knew how to click on a icon. Gaogenxie.com, one of several new sites which says it targets the "modern Chinese woman", has a Question & Answer folder on sexual problems which leaves nothing unsaid.

The star letter on the current site, which needs special software to be accessed, is from a newly married woman whose husband is so shy about the size of his penis that he gets undressed in the dark. Gaogenxie ("high heel shoes") offers advice on how to make him feel better in bed.

The Shanghai-based Etang.com, also a newcomer, has chosen as its target the Yellow Generation -- defined as China's young and emerging middle-class aged 18-35. The term, registered as a trade mark, is intended to contrast with the rather older Red Generation, who grew up in the Maoist 1960s and 1970s. Etang offers advice on house buying, male fashion and job hunting.

E-commerce is the vogue word for many of these new sites but, in a country with virtually no mechanism for credit card payment, it is unlikely to be their salvation. China now has 9,000 commercial websites, of which 2,000 are pure dot.coms: a severe shake-out is expected as the dot.com bubble bursts.

Because of official hesitation, Chinese hi-tech companies only made their debut on Nasdaq earlier this year and it has been a dismal one. Of the four leading companies which launched their shares -- Sina.com, China.com, Netease.com and Sohu.com -- only Sina.com is still ahead of the game.

Is China's current enthusiasm for the Internet just another "fever" -- the latest in a succession over the past 20 years since the Chinese lost faith in socialism? It has some of the lavish and short- sighted characteristics of the "market fever" of recent years.

Many Chinese dot.com companies have formed large employee teams, rented office space in prestigious sites, and spent freely on salaries and perks. The shake-out has already started as dot.com sites run out of cash: China's own venture capitalists have only invested a minute sum -- about 100 million renminbi (US$11.84 million) -- in online firms.

"A cloud of religion has been hanging over China's Internet development," says an article in the Beijing-based China Daily. "Yahoo and Amazon are the totems, and the Nasdaq is the Mecca."

The China Daily criticizes the illusion that China can "catch up" with the West via rapid expansion of the internet, comparing it with the disastrous campaign in the late 1950s to "catch up" with the United States and Britain by boosting China's iron and steel production to unrealistic heights.

There is indeed an air of illusion about the official campaign to encourage every Chinese province -- particularly the poorer ones in the west -- to invest in web infrastructure as if it were a passport to development.

Provincial Party bosses now boast about their ability to offer instant Internet access for foreign business visitors and entrepreneurs. It has almost become another target to over- achieve. Yet even if there is a dot.com slump the Internet revolution is not going to come to a halt.

Much more substantial investment is taking place in less volatile hi-tech industries producing hardware and software. Beijing's own Silicon Valley at the Zhongguancun Science and Technology Park continues to expand, and Shanghai has begun to take off.

A significant reverse brain drain of Chinese ex-students returning home is helping to supply the industries with new talent. "The future lies with you," Chairman Mao once told the revolutionary youth of China.

Today the revolution may be on-screen rather than on the streets and it will have -- as Mao also said -- its "twists and turns". But in spite of the web-police the Communist Party will find it harder year by year to contain.

-- Guardian News Service