Rethinking agricultural strategy

Abdul Bayes, The Daily Star/Asia News Network, Dacca

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Bangladesh Rice Foundation (BRF) and Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) jointly organized an international seminar in the city recently. Eminent economists and policy makers participated in the deliberations thereupon to review the whole process of agricultural transformation taking place around the globe in general and Bangladesh in particular.

Quazi Shahabuddin, an eminent economist of the country and currently the Director General of BIDS presented a keynote paper. He spoke on, in my view, Bangladesh's agriculture: past, present and future. Needless to mention, such a review of performances of the vital sector is of utmost importance in the wake of changing consumer demand, technologies and globalization. On that score alone, the seminar was timely to take off to a new path of agricultural development. Allow me to draw upon some of his observations.

According to him, during the last three decades, Bangladesh agriculture witnessed, significant in its structure, resource base, technology and organization of production. Crop production, particularly rice, remained the sole concern and obviously earlier strategies and policies were geared towards achieving "rice self sufficiency". Arguably, there was a trade-off between rice and pulses or oilseeds. Bangladesh made significant strides in reducing food gap but gaps in the production of non-rice crops persist.

However, the decline in real prices of rice had helped increase food security, marginally if not substantially. Meantime, growth in per capita income, rapid urbanization and skewed income distribution tilted the balance of food basket in favor of non-rice crops. This is in tandem with basic economic laws where consumers prefer high value crops such as eggs, milk and meat with rise in per capita income.

Time seems to have come when public sector support needs to be directed towards increasing production of crops hitherto 'unsung or unheard'. Shahabuddin and other researchers observe that Bangladesh has comparative advantage in the production of many commodities that we tend to import with our valuable foreign exchange. But neither incentives and institutions nor innovations are enough in evidence to induce farmers to grow these crops. For example, onion or potato production could put down farmers' pales more than rice in terms of prices. Likewise, also horticultural crops. Are farmers then " irrational" to lie in a zone where they could produce better-valued crops?

The answer is no. Given technology, institutions and incentives, they are in fact maximizing their returns. Researches have enriched rice, incentives provided inducement to produce rice but none of these apparently went to appease farmers and that is one of reasons for their decline. "The exploitation of this potential, however, depends on investment for developing infrastructure for storage, processing, marketing and financial services for which public support is needed". A broad-based agricultural research system needs to be developed to envelope all agricultural crops so that opportunity costs could clearly be coined and resources are used rationally.

An important area is generation of knowledge, information and technology. Public sector could pave ways for private sector participation in these activities by making or supporting suitable infrastructure investments. Pineapple growers at Modhupur hardly knows about the prevailing prices in the country, have no known technology to preserve them. The precariousness of the perishable products ultimately make them prey to middlemen to rob them of their due rewards. Electronic media, newspapers and extension workers could stem the rot through dissemination of knowledge, information and technology. Likewise development of biotechnology could build upon bare footed farmers' baskets.

A move towards crop diversification should not mean sidelining staple food crops, rather, more researches need to be in front to raise productivity of land and crops at a much higher level than projected ones on the heels of declining cultivated land by 80,000 hectares per year! As Mahabub Hossain observed once, strategies and policies must be rationalized through a shift from the phase of "growth through input expansion" to a phase of "growth through efficiency in input utilization".

Shahabuddin suggests for a strong agricultural growth linkage with fish and livestock production, including poultry. "The poor can benefit from pond fishery through associated employment in fish production, fish catching, processing and marketing activities". But good quality seeds, hatchery and nursery arrangements at door steps tend to disdain such developments. The author further observes: "There is a great potential for fish production in Bangladesh through proper utilization of the vast flood plains which has been marginally tapped.

These areas which remain under water for more than three months a year can be utilized for raising fast growing short maturity species." While technical potential has been proved through experiments, the appropriate institutional arrangements in sharing costs and benefits are yet to develop. Initiatives at community level through some NGOs and even government-sponsored programs hardly succeed in the face of strong barricades from the village barons.

The livestock sub-sector including poultry paints a promising picture. It has large potential in poverty reduction. As noted before, with rise in income and urbanization, the demand for products like eggs, milk and meat are likely to increase due to higher income elasticity. But still the process of production and distribution is of subsistence nature. Community-based organization of production is needed. We are told that NGO, like BRAC and major agro processing units like PRAN are making efforts at mobilizing milk or supplying high yielding animals to poor farms. The government has a major role to play in the changing scenario.

The messages from Shahabuddin's research should invite immediate actions. Mahabub Hossain and other researchers also have long been harping on the messages. My personal experiences in fields and with farmers point to the potentials too. Therefore, they no longer remain to be food for thought but to be cooked, without any loss of time. Agricultural policies in Bangladesh need a revisit soon.

Changes in consumer preferences, urbanization, development of biotechnology etc. call for a shift in paradigm that pervaded three decades. The role of public sector has not diminished, as argued by some, but basically increased manifold as investments in inputs necessary for promoting high value crops could only come from public sector. Making the production of rice more productive, land should be released for the growth of other crops. Let us grow old but think about new ideas.

Abdul Bayes is a Professor of Economics at Jahangirnagar University.