Restraint in East Timor

Restraint in East Timor

Events in East Timor these past few days have increased the
likelihood of an ugly civil war between the East Timorese who
favor independence and those who wish the territory to remain
part of Indonesia. The government's announcement last week that
Indonesia was ready to let East Timor become a separate state --
if talks on a special status with wide-ranging autonomy failed --
has certainly contributed to heightening the tension and enmity
that has long existed between the two opposite camps.

We recall that a bloody civil war was the chief reason why
Indonesia moved into the territory shortly after the sudden
withdrawal of the Portuguese colonial government in 1975. Fears
of renewed civil war is also the main, publicly stated, reason
why Indonesia has refused to let an act of self-determination
take place there. Yet the latest government policy shift appears
to be having exactly the same effect that it wished to avoid.

The government's refusal to hold a referendum in East Timor
has virtually polarized the people there into two extremes. It
has wiped out the middle ground, led by Nobel laureate Dili
Bishop Carlos Felipe Ximenes Belo -- and who probably made up the
"silent" majority -- who were willing to give a referendum a
chance to determine whether or not to remain part of Indonesia.
Indonesia's offer of "autonomy or separation" virtually forced
the people on the middle ground to go to one of the two extremes.
No wonder tension is building there.

Although talks on Indonesia's offer for special autonomy are
continuing at the United Nations, both camps in East Timor are
acting as if negotiations are already breaking down. Both camps
are gearing up for the day Indonesia pulls out from the
territory, beefing up support even to the point of arming
themselves. Conflicting reports about the Indonesian military
arming civilian militias in East Timor to defend themselves
against attacks from proindependence guerrilla groups have only
served to sow even more confusion, if not anger.

Also feeling anxious are migrants and traders from other parts
of Indonesia who have settled in East Timor, and thousands of
government workers, including teachers and doctors -- and their
families -- who are assigned to work in the province. Fearing for
their safety, some of them have decided to leave the province.
Others are making similar preparations. Many East Timorese who
support integration with Indonesia are also talking about leaving
their homeland.

The situation in East Timor could quickly degenerate into
total anarchy not unlike that in 1975 when Portugal withdrew from
its colony. Given the precarious situation, and the deep mistrust
many East Timorese have for the government, beefing up the
military's presence would only antagonize the anti-Indonesian
government elements, and therefore would be counterproductive.

Yet the situation cannot be allowed to simply get out of
control. Cool heads must prevail, and anybody who has influence
over the East Timorese should use this power to call on everyone
to exercise maximum restraint and stop this descend into civil
war.

Portugal and Indonesia, now that they have officially
reestablished low-level diplomatic representation, should work
together and attempt to influence the opposing East Timorese
factions which they have supported. Ultimately, however, the ones
with the real clout are the East Timorese leaders. This is
probably the real test for Bishop Belo and resistance leader Jose
Ramos-Horta to live up to their 1996 Nobel Peace Prize titles.
Now that the Indonesian government has recognized the role of
jailed East Timor guerrilla leader Jose Alexandre "Xanana" Gusmao
in the peace process, he too should also use his formidable
influence over his supporters to call for restraint. Indonesia
should also began disarming the militia that it had supported.

The current UN-sponsored negotiations on special autonomy
status should run their course. And if they fail, all parties
should work toward a peaceful transition of power in East Timor.
No one but the extremists will profit from chaos in East Timor.
Everyone, including Indonesia, will lose, but the East Timorese
themselves will be the biggest losers of all.