Restraint in East Timor

Events in East Timor these past few days have increased the likelihood of an ugly civil war between the East Timorese who favor independence and those who wish the territory to remain part of Indonesia. The government's announcement last week that Indonesia was ready to let East Timor become a separate state -- if talks on a special status with wide-ranging autonomy failed -- has certainly contributed to heightening the tension and enmity that has long existed between the two opposite camps.

We recall that a bloody civil war was the chief reason why Indonesia moved into the territory shortly after the sudden withdrawal of the Portuguese colonial government in 1975. Fears of renewed civil war is also the main, publicly stated, reason why Indonesia has refused to let an act of self-determination take place there. Yet the latest government policy shift appears to be having exactly the same effect that it wished to avoid.

The government's refusal to hold a referendum in East Timor has virtually polarized the people there into two extremes. It has wiped out the middle ground, led by Nobel laureate Dili Bishop Carlos Felipe Ximenes Belo -- and who probably made up the "silent" majority -- who were willing to give a referendum a chance to determine whether or not to remain part of Indonesia. Indonesia's offer of "autonomy or separation" virtually forced the people on the middle ground to go to one of the two extremes. No wonder tension is building there.

Although talks on Indonesia's offer for special autonomy are continuing at the United Nations, both camps in East Timor are acting as if negotiations are already breaking down. Both camps are gearing up for the day Indonesia pulls out from the territory, beefing up support even to the point of arming themselves. Conflicting reports about the Indonesian military arming civilian militias in East Timor to defend themselves against attacks from proindependence guerrilla groups have only served to sow even more confusion, if not anger.

Also feeling anxious are migrants and traders from other parts of Indonesia who have settled in East Timor, and thousands of government workers, including teachers and doctors -- and their families -- who are assigned to work in the province. Fearing for their safety, some of them have decided to leave the province. Others are making similar preparations. Many East Timorese who support integration with Indonesia are also talking about leaving their homeland.

The situation in East Timor could quickly degenerate into total anarchy not unlike that in 1975 when Portugal withdrew from its colony. Given the precarious situation, and the deep mistrust many East Timorese have for the government, beefing up the military's presence would only antagonize the anti-Indonesian government elements, and therefore would be counterproductive.

Yet the situation cannot be allowed to simply get out of control. Cool heads must prevail, and anybody who has influence over the East Timorese should use this power to call on everyone to exercise maximum restraint and stop this descend into civil war.

Portugal and Indonesia, now that they have officially reestablished low-level diplomatic representation, should work together and attempt to influence the opposing East Timorese factions which they have supported. Ultimately, however, the ones with the real clout are the East Timorese leaders. This is probably the real test for Bishop Belo and resistance leader Jose Ramos-Horta to live up to their 1996 Nobel Peace Prize titles. Now that the Indonesian government has recognized the role of jailed East Timor guerrilla leader Jose Alexandre "Xanana" Gusmao in the peace process, he too should also use his formidable influence over his supporters to call for restraint. Indonesia should also began disarming the militia that it had supported.

The current UN-sponsored negotiations on special autonomy status should run their course. And if they fail, all parties should work toward a peaceful transition of power in East Timor. No one but the extremists will profit from chaos in East Timor. Everyone, including Indonesia, will lose, but the East Timorese themselves will be the biggest losers of all.