Reshuffling the Cabinet? Go for the big one

Endy M. Bayuni, Jakarta

While most people are busy passing judgment on the first year's performance of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the man himself is likely to be quietly evaluating the performance of his Cabinet members. That is assuming that he is keeping to his word.

We still remember the jeers he got when he announced the lineup of his United Indonesia Cabinet on the night of Oct. 20, 2004. Responding to his critics then, he said he was giving his ministers 12 months before deciding to whether to change them. In recent weeks, again in response to calls for a Cabinet reshuffle, he has reminded the public of his old promise; to evaluate the performance of all the ministers after a year.

While he did not say it in so many words, most presidential watchers -- and the public too -- assume that there will be some changes at the end of this evaluation. The questions that remain are how many ministers is he changing and who will be dropped.

Given that the present lineup was something that was imposed on him rather than his first choice, the answer then is clear: He should go for the big reshuffle and probably bring back those names he had originally planned to recruit.

The political situation has changed drastically in the last 12 months, so much so that today he has far greater freedom to pick his own men and women.

The present Cabinet is really a rainbow coalition reflecting, or rather dictated by, the political reality at the time of selection.

This time last year, the newly elected President faced a decidedly hostile House of Representatives (DPR) controlled by Golkar under Akbar Tandjung, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) of Megawati Soekarnoputri and the National Awakening Party (PKB) of Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid.

These three political figures -- who incidentally could not stand each other in their previous lives -- decided to gang up on Susilo because they were the losers of last year's democratic power struggle. Akbar lost early in the Golkar national convention; Gus Dur, president in 1999-2001 before he was impeached, lost the contest early on when he was barred from running because of his blindness; Megawati, president in 2001- 2004, was roundly defeated in the second round of direct presidential elections by Susilo.

These three powerful political figures had so much sour grapes between them that they could not accept Susilo taking the coveted prize. So they put aside their differences and formed a formidable Nationhood Coalition in the House of Representatives (DPR) that promised the new president a hard time for his legislative agenda.

In putting together his Cabinet, SBY clearly had to form a strategy to counter the threat from the "coalition of bad losers" by forming his own coalition, bringing a number of Islamist parties into his fold by offering them Cabinet seats.

Besides representatives of the then breakaway Golkar faction forming behind Vice President Jusuf Kalla, SBY brought into the Cabinet representatives from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the United Development Party (PPP), the Crescent and Star Party (PBB) and the National Mandate Party (PAN), besides his own small Democrat Party (PD).

The combination of these parties -- excluding Golkar that was still under Akbar Tandjung's control at that point -- was still not sufficient to match the strength of the Nationhood Coalition, but it was as good as SBY could get at the time.

Critics then felt that the President may have given too many concessions to the small parties as well as to Jusuf Kalla. Looking at the circumstances then, he probably had little choice.

His Cabinet was clearly not his first choice. Some names that had been bandied about, and apparently even contacted by the new President, were eventually dropped as he had to accommodate the people assigned to him by the political parties.

That was then. This is now.

Fast forward 12 months, with Golkar firmly under Jusuf Kalla, the President is no longer beholden to the small parties. On top of that, many of these ministers no longer have influence in their own parties; while others have been completely disowned.

The Nationhood Coalition became history in December when Kalla wrested the chairmanship from Akbar. The threat from the DPR was thus completely defused.

With the most seats in DPR, Golkar is comfortable playing the role it has played for most of the last 40 years: as a government party. It does not control the House, but it has enough of a lead to influence its direction.

This evaluation time is therefore a golden opportunity for the President to correct the mistakes he made 12 months ago -- mistakes dictated by circumstances -- and to form a Cabinet that is more competent, solid, and truly united.

He only has to rely on his own PD, Kalla's Golkar, and probably PKS, about the only small party that truly brings political support to the presidency. The representatives of other parties in the Cabinet are dispensable.

SBY still needs a handful of able politicians, but these could be provided by either of the three parties. He could also bring in more professionals to improve the competency of the Cabinet.

The President also needs to replace some of the businessmen in the Cabinet because of the big potential for conflict of interest. Even if they are sincere and refrain from abusing their office, their mere presence already undermines the credibility of the Cabinet.

When the President evaluates the performance of his team, he should not confine himself to looking at the performance of each minister over the past 12 months. Such a period is just too short to say whether one has succeeded or failed.

Evaluation should also be about looking into the country's future needs.

Looking ahead, the President would go a long way to improving his reputation and image by picking a team that would take him through the next four years. He should not waste this opportunity.

The writer is editor-in-chief of The Jakarta Post.