Researchers seek credibility audit of polling bodies

Moch. N. Kurniawan, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The credibility of pre-election polls has become cause for concern among observers, as polls on the same subject have provided disparate outcomes.

Indonesian Broadcasting Commission (KPI) member Ade Armando urged that polling organizations be audited to assess their independence, as their work could greatly influence public opinion and electoral platforms by parties contesting the elections.

"There is a growing concern that recent surveys were not conducted properly," Ade said on Wednesday at a seminar on surveys and their impact, organized by the Institute for Social and Economic Research, Education and Information (LP3ES).

Allegations have been floating that polling results were drawn up by instruction from a third party.

For example, Ade questioned the poll conducted by Metro TV, which ranked its owner Surya Paloh at the top of the list, while another survey conducted by SCTV showed Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) chairman Hidayat Nur Wahid head the ranks above popular figures like incumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri, People's Consultative Assembly speaker Amien Rais and Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Those TV stations that had conducted surveys on the electorate's preferred presidential candidates should be the first to undergo the audit, Ade said.

"Polling organizations should not only agree to disclose their survey methods, but also undergo an independent audit," he said.

Such an audit, Ade said, was common in the United States, where people could rely on the polls because of the proven credibility of the survey institutions carrying them out.

Other speakers at the seminar included Dieter Roth of the University of Heidenberg, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen EV from Germany, Daniel Dhakidae of Kompas daily's research department, and Chien Chun-Seng of the survey department at the Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan.

E Shobirin Nadj of LP3ES and Arif Zulkifli of Tempo magazine were also concerned about the survey methods.

"It is part of transparency that a survey institution announces its methodology," Nadjn said, as a poll's validity could be determined through its methodology.

Golkar Party senior executive Slamet Effendi Yusuf said the party took the polls into consideration, but suspected that some had been distorted to benefit certain parties.

"A poll should be conducted seriously; otherwise people will not believe in the polling organization any longer," he said.

So far, he said, the party consulted the polls conducted by organizations such as the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI) to map out Golkar's prospective voters.