Researchers seek credibility audit of polling bodies

Researchers seek credibility audit of polling bodies

Moch. N. Kurniawan, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The credibility of pre-election polls has become cause for
concern among observers, as polls on the same subject have
provided disparate outcomes.

Indonesian Broadcasting Commission (KPI) member Ade Armando
urged that polling organizations be audited to assess their
independence, as their work could greatly influence public
opinion and electoral platforms by parties contesting the
elections.

"There is a growing concern that recent surveys were not
conducted properly," Ade said on Wednesday at a seminar on
surveys and their impact, organized by the Institute for Social
and Economic Research, Education and Information (LP3ES).

Allegations have been floating that polling results were drawn
up by instruction from a third party.

For example, Ade questioned the poll conducted by Metro TV,
which ranked its owner Surya Paloh at the top of the list, while
another survey conducted by SCTV showed Prosperous Justice Party
(PKS) chairman Hidayat Nur Wahid head the ranks above popular
figures like incumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri, People's
Consultative Assembly speaker Amien Rais and Coordinating
Minister for Political and Security Affairs Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono.

Those TV stations that had conducted surveys on the
electorate's preferred presidential candidates should be the
first to undergo the audit, Ade said.

"Polling organizations should not only agree to disclose their
survey methods, but also undergo an independent audit," he said.

Such an audit, Ade said, was common in the United States,
where people could rely on the polls because of the proven
credibility of the survey institutions carrying them out.

Other speakers at the seminar included Dieter Roth of the
University of Heidenberg, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen EV from
Germany, Daniel Dhakidae of Kompas daily's research department,
and Chien Chun-Seng of the survey department at the Democratic
Progressive Party of Taiwan.

E Shobirin Nadj of LP3ES and Arif Zulkifli of Tempo magazine
were also concerned about the survey methods.

"It is part of transparency that a survey institution
announces its methodology," Nadjn said, as a poll's validity
could be determined through its methodology.

Golkar Party senior executive Slamet Effendi Yusuf said the
party took the polls into consideration, but suspected that some
had been distorted to benefit certain parties.

"A poll should be conducted seriously; otherwise people will
not believe in the polling organization any longer," he said.

So far, he said, the party consulted the polls conducted by
organizations such as the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) and
the International Republican Institute (IRI) to map out Golkar's
prospective voters.