Region needs solid Sino-U.S. ties

Region needs solid Sino-U.S. ties

By Rizal Sukma

JAKARTA (JP): The question of a "China threat" once again came
to the fore when President Fidel Ramos of the Philippines called
for reinforcing defense ties in the region, as reported by South
China Morning Post, Aug. 1.

It is widely speculated that Ramos' call was driven by
Manila's concern over China's growing military modernization and
its possible implications for Beijing's policy toward territorial
claims in the Spratly Islands group.

Over the last few weeks or so, diplomatic relations between
the two countries have been strained by several incidents in the
area. In the eyes of Manila, Beijing's growing assertiveness in
reinforcing its claim in the South China Sea is alarming. For the
wider Asia-Pacific region, the credibility of the China threat
theory depends on regional countries' perceptions of the nature
of China's military modernization.

Indeed, the question of China's military modernization has
always been at the center of regional security discourse. A
recent call by China's President Jiang Zemin for the People's
Liberation Army (PLA) to launch full-scale military development
for the 21st century (Jakarta Post, Aug. 1, 1997) could fuel the
already-heated debate on the nature of China's military buildup
in the region.

Speaking at a rally marking the 70th anniversary of the PLA,
Jiang suggested that China needed a stronger, more powerful
military to ensure national security and national stability. The
same view was also expressed by China's defense minister, Chi
Haotian, when he stated that the pace of military modernization
should be increased as China still faced a threat from
"hegemony and power politics" (The Straits Times, July 31, 1997).
The most important question, then, is that "in what way would
China's military modernization threaten regional stability and
security?"

Gen. Chi's remark reveals much of the nature of China's
military buildup. Even though he did not single out any specific
country which practices "hegemony and power politics," analysts
have pointed out that the terms actually refer to the United
States. It is widely understood that China's leaders are worried
that the U.S. may play the role of sole superpower in the post-
Cold War era.

On more than one occasion, China has warned the U.S. not to
practice hegemony and power politics. In more concrete terms,
China's leaders have repeatedly warned Washington not to
"contain" China. In this regard, China has often quoted American
fears of the "China threat" as proof of Washington pursuing a
foreign policy to contain China.

In short, China has come to the conclusion that the biggest
threat to its security comes from Washington's attempt to contain
the rise of China in the post-Cold War Asia-Pacific security
architecture.

Moreover, China has found ways to justify its concern over
"the American threat" theory. The Chinese leadership strongly
believes that a number of major problems in U.S.-China relations
-- human rights, Taiwan, trade issues, most favored nation
status, arms transfer, and nonproliferation -- are being used by
Washington as a pretext to interfere in China's domestic affairs.

China has repeatedly maintained that all these issues
constitute major aspects of the United States' broader strategy
of "peaceful evolution" aimed at undermining China's internal
security and stability. Recent improvements in the U.S.-Japan
alliance have also fueled China's suspicions.

The widening scope of the Washington-Tokyo bilateral alliance,
which shifts the nature of the alliance from strictly domestic to
limited regional deployment, is seen by Beijing as another
attempt by the U.S., this time by conspiring with Tokyo, to
contain China. In short, Washington constitutes the primary
element in China's threat perception.

This shows that there are two interrelated security concerns
held by Beijing regarding U.S. policy and role. First, on global
and regional levels, China is worried that U.S. dominance in
regional security architecture will be directed at containing the
rise of China as a major power.

Second, Washington's concerns over human right issues in China
are regarded by Beijing as complementary to the U.S.' regional
strategy. Taken together, China believes that U.S. policy, toward
the Asia-Pacific region in general and toward China in
particular, poses a direct threat to its own security.

In response to such a perceived threat, two of China's
strategies are obvious. First, on the global and regional levels,
Beijing has moved to counter the perceived Washington domination
by forging ties with countries such as those of ASEAN. On the
unilateral level, China clearly maintains that a strong military
capability is crucial to assuring its own national security.

It is in this context that China's strategy is highly
problematic. China's military modernization may be directed at
U.S. military presence in the Pacific, but its implications could
be alarming -- if not damaging -- to the wider Southeast Asian
region. China may or may not realize that, as far as the lesser
regional powers are concerned, to a great extent it does not
matter at whom its defense modernization is primarily aimed.

Regional countries, especially those of ASEAN, are concerned
more with the wider strategic implications of such modernization
for the future regional framework rather than with emotional
bilateral rivalry between the two giants. They may disagree over
the right of Taiwan's President Lee Teng-hui visit to the U.S.

However, both China and the U.S. should realize that Sino-
American relations are too important to be framed only within
such a bilateral perspective. The whole relationship should be
put within a wider, more comprehensive strategic framework. This
is especially true for the U.S. because of its tendency to frame
its Chinese policy as a domestic political issue.

Both sides should underscore the growing regional concerns
that a stable China-U.S. relationship is vital to regional
security. The current hysteria about the "China threat" within
American foreign policy may be counterproductive.

This is more so if such hype is intended to serve domestic
political purposes. The rise of China as a major player in the
Asia-Pacific region may not necessarily be threatening to
regional security. On the contrary, it could be a positive
contributing factor to the regional quest for a more prosperous
and stable regional order. Meanwhile, an unstable U.S.-China
relationship would surely be damaging to regional security and
peace.

The writer is a researcher at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, Jakarta.