Region needs solid Sino-U.S. ties

By Rizal Sukma

JAKARTA (JP): The question of a "China threat" once again came to the fore when President Fidel Ramos of the Philippines called for reinforcing defense ties in the region, as reported by South China Morning Post, Aug. 1.

It is widely speculated that Ramos' call was driven by Manila's concern over China's growing military modernization and its possible implications for Beijing's policy toward territorial claims in the Spratly Islands group.

Over the last few weeks or so, diplomatic relations between the two countries have been strained by several incidents in the area. In the eyes of Manila, Beijing's growing assertiveness in reinforcing its claim in the South China Sea is alarming. For the wider Asia-Pacific region, the credibility of the China threat theory depends on regional countries' perceptions of the nature of China's military modernization.

Indeed, the question of China's military modernization has always been at the center of regional security discourse. A recent call by China's President Jiang Zemin for the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to launch full-scale military development for the 21st century (Jakarta Post, Aug. 1, 1997) could fuel the already-heated debate on the nature of China's military buildup in the region.

Speaking at a rally marking the 70th anniversary of the PLA, Jiang suggested that China needed a stronger, more powerful military to ensure national security and national stability. The same view was also expressed by China's defense minister, Chi Haotian, when he stated that the pace of military modernization should be increased as China still faced a threat from "hegemony and power politics" (The Straits Times, July 31, 1997). The most important question, then, is that "in what way would China's military modernization threaten regional stability and security?"

Gen. Chi's remark reveals much of the nature of China's military buildup. Even though he did not single out any specific country which practices "hegemony and power politics," analysts have pointed out that the terms actually refer to the United States. It is widely understood that China's leaders are worried that the U.S. may play the role of sole superpower in the post- Cold War era.

On more than one occasion, China has warned the U.S. not to practice hegemony and power politics. In more concrete terms, China's leaders have repeatedly warned Washington not to "contain" China. In this regard, China has often quoted American fears of the "China threat" as proof of Washington pursuing a foreign policy to contain China.

In short, China has come to the conclusion that the biggest threat to its security comes from Washington's attempt to contain the rise of China in the post-Cold War Asia-Pacific security architecture.

Moreover, China has found ways to justify its concern over "the American threat" theory. The Chinese leadership strongly believes that a number of major problems in U.S.-China relations -- human rights, Taiwan, trade issues, most favored nation status, arms transfer, and nonproliferation -- are being used by Washington as a pretext to interfere in China's domestic affairs.

China has repeatedly maintained that all these issues constitute major aspects of the United States' broader strategy of "peaceful evolution" aimed at undermining China's internal security and stability. Recent improvements in the U.S.-Japan alliance have also fueled China's suspicions.

The widening scope of the Washington-Tokyo bilateral alliance, which shifts the nature of the alliance from strictly domestic to limited regional deployment, is seen by Beijing as another attempt by the U.S., this time by conspiring with Tokyo, to contain China. In short, Washington constitutes the primary element in China's threat perception.

This shows that there are two interrelated security concerns held by Beijing regarding U.S. policy and role. First, on global and regional levels, China is worried that U.S. dominance in regional security architecture will be directed at containing the rise of China as a major power.

Second, Washington's concerns over human right issues in China are regarded by Beijing as complementary to the U.S.' regional strategy. Taken together, China believes that U.S. policy, toward the Asia-Pacific region in general and toward China in particular, poses a direct threat to its own security.

In response to such a perceived threat, two of China's strategies are obvious. First, on the global and regional levels, Beijing has moved to counter the perceived Washington domination by forging ties with countries such as those of ASEAN. On the unilateral level, China clearly maintains that a strong military capability is crucial to assuring its own national security.

It is in this context that China's strategy is highly problematic. China's military modernization may be directed at U.S. military presence in the Pacific, but its implications could be alarming -- if not damaging -- to the wider Southeast Asian region. China may or may not realize that, as far as the lesser regional powers are concerned, to a great extent it does not matter at whom its defense modernization is primarily aimed.

Regional countries, especially those of ASEAN, are concerned more with the wider strategic implications of such modernization for the future regional framework rather than with emotional bilateral rivalry between the two giants. They may disagree over the right of Taiwan's President Lee Teng-hui visit to the U.S.

However, both China and the U.S. should realize that Sino- American relations are too important to be framed only within such a bilateral perspective. The whole relationship should be put within a wider, more comprehensive strategic framework. This is especially true for the U.S. because of its tendency to frame its Chinese policy as a domestic political issue.

Both sides should underscore the growing regional concerns that a stable China-U.S. relationship is vital to regional security. The current hysteria about the "China threat" within American foreign policy may be counterproductive.

This is more so if such hype is intended to serve domestic political purposes. The rise of China as a major player in the Asia-Pacific region may not necessarily be threatening to regional security. On the contrary, it could be a positive contributing factor to the regional quest for a more prosperous and stable regional order. Meanwhile, an unstable U.S.-China relationship would surely be damaging to regional security and peace.

The writer is a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.