Sat, 15 Oct 1994

Reform is up to Ukraine

Ukraine, deeply divided, still has not fully made up its mind about economic reform. Its president, Leonid Kuchma, this week urged Parliament to relax controls and let the country move toward open markets. But the Parliament has resisted. The West has been offering substantial aid, but most of it will have to depend on progress toward better policy.

Ukraine has fallen into dangerous circumstances. It cannot retreat into communism, but it has not been able to agree to move toward privatization. Meanwhile, its economy and living standard decline.

The trouble isn't a lack of democracy. Both branches of the government are elected. But the country is operating under its old Soviet constitution -- a continuing source of weakness.

The deeper question is whether Ukraine can hold together. Its western region, which speaks Ukrainian, tends to look toward Western Europe and to support Kuchma's plans for rebuilding the economy. The eastern part mostly speaks Russian and has resisted the ideas of private property and competition, which is odd, since Russia itself has been moving to adopt them. It is hard to think that this paralysis can continue much longer.

Kuchma sees that clearly. In a ringing speech Tuesday, he warned the Parliament that the failure to pursue reform decisively could lead to anarchy and even to civil war. Ukraine is a big and populous country. Instability there would have severe effects on its neighbors, particularly Poland and Russia.

-- The Washington Post