Rectors Forum sets up parallel vote tabulation
By M.M.I. Ahyani
BANDUNG (JP): Are you interested in finding out early results of the polls' ballot count?
Well then go to the website of the Rectors Forum at http://forumrektor.itb.ac.id. or drop by the Rector Forum's secretariat in Bandung or in Jakarta.
The location of the site for the public announcement of details is as yet undecided. Wisma Antara or the Hotel Indonesia have been proposed as possible forum locations.
If everything goes smoothly, two days after the voting day on Monday, June 7, the Rectors Forum will be able to present the estimated result of 70 percent of the entire ballot counting.
As one of the poll watchdogs -- besides KIPP, Unfrel and some others -- the Rectors Forum will feature its own ballot counting methods.
According to forum chairman Liliek Hendrajaya, who is also rector of the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), the election watchdog will estimate the vote with the help of a statistical method known as Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT).
"This method will be a complementary method and enables election monitoring by, at the same time, conducting scientific tests," he said in Bandung on Thursday.
The PVT is a common statistical sampling method. Its superiority lies in its scientific analysis, for example with the help of the cross correlation method.
Apart from quantitative calculations in the form of compilation and tabulation of data, the forum's PVT method will also feature a qualitative interpretation of data already obtained.
Nevertheless, a statistician from ITB's mathematics department, Ms. Dumaria Tampubolon, who will head the PVT program for the Rectors Forum, said there were shortcomings in the method to be used in the upcoming elections.
"As one of the statistical tests, PVT will not be entirely perfect. However, as a scientific tool, this method will be very useful to provide a track record and new data to be used in the analysis of the next general election," she said.
The PVT method has been applied in more than 20 general elections in countries such as Chile, the Philippines, some African states, and Cambodia.
"The result obtained from PVT in the Philippines when Corazon Aquino won the elections was quite significant with ballot counting being undertaken by Comelec and Namfrel," Dumaria said.
PVT has stimulated the interest of academics joining the Rectors Forum. It was introduced here by the National Democratic Institute from the United States, which has extended technical assistance to poll monitoring agencies.
"It seems that a scientific method like this is quite relevant to us at the Rectors Forum," Hendrajaya said.
However, a dilemma caused by a limitation in the application of PVT has arisen.
Data from local polling stations (TPS) for the elections is meager, while their presence is important to determine the design of the survey and the sample to be collected.
"Data from the 1997 elections is not relevant any more. However, as the data we really need is not available, we have to use various assumptions to be able to draw up a survey and sampling design," Dumaria said.
Out of a total of 320,000 TPS already decided upon, the Rectors Forum has agreed to collect random samples from 8,900 TPS.
"There are usually two methods for the design of the survey and the sample. Under the first method, determine first the margin of error and then the size of the sample. Under the second method, it is a reverse process: determine first the size of the sample and then the margin of error," Dumaria said.
After considering a variety of constraints, such as financing, human resources, and available equipment, the Rectors Forum opted for the second method.
"We determine first the size of the sample and then calculate the margin of error. Besides it is not possible for us to collect a sample from all TPS. We have found, finally, that the margin of error is quite small, namely zero point such and such," Dumaria said.
It is true that the number of TPS used as a sample is small. However, the Rector Forum's PVT method uses individual voters as sample units. With the assumption that one TPS will serve some 500 voters, some 400,000 samples will be obtained.
Isolated areas
According to Hendrajaya, the Rectors Forum will try to cover areas that other monitoring agencies are unable to cover, especially considering that the random sample for PVT has already been obtained. Although a TPS is located in a remote place, it must be visited to ensure that the result of PVT will be accurate.
"Once a TPS has been included in the sample, it must be monitored, no matter how difficult it is to get there," he said.
Provinces considered difficult to reach are Maluku, Aceh, East Timor and some other provinces whose territories are separated by the sea. However, Hendrajaya remained optimistic, saying the forum had recruited at least 220,000 volunteers to monitor the elections.
In addition, at least 270 universities are associated with the forum. Data from them will be fed into computers and sent to processing centers in Bandung and Jakarta.
"This data may be sent through facsimile or the Internet. Currently, approximately 30 universities have been linked up to the educational Internet managed by ITB with the assistance of a satellite owned by Japan," said Basuki, who is responsible for the computer network at the Rectors Forum.
"Universities not associated in the Internet will have to rely on public Internet networks such as Wasantara Net or other Internet Service Providers," he said.
To secure the data, 120 facsimiles at Wisma Antara will adopt a closed user-group system so that other parties cannot interfere. Data sent through the Internet channel will be encrypted first to prevent decoding by other parties.
It is on the basis of these preparations that the Rectors Forum predicts they can release estimated vote results eight days after the polling date.
Data discrepancies
A problem may arise if the estimate made on the basis of PVT methods differs markedly from the calculation made by the General Elections Commission (KPU) or other poll watchdogs undertaking ballot counting.
Hendrajaya emphasized that the results of the PVT calculations will only be used only as a means of comparison.
"Certainly PVT-based calculations cannot be claimed or made a political instrument by the losing parties. To avoid this possibility, until the issuance of the official result by KPU, PVT-based calculations will only be in the form of compilation and tabulation data, along with some explanations but without a conclusion."
Earlier, executive director of the forum Sudjana Sapi'ie said the result of the calculations would be the same as those obtained by KPU only if a computer network was allowed access to KPU's computer network.
"It is always possible that calculation results may differ from those issued by KPU. Therefore, an election monitoring agency must acquire data-processing capability on a par with that of KPU, so that a check may be run to find out whether the KPU data is correct or otherwise," he said.
According to Sapi'ie, KPU would standby their result, while monitoring agencies would have to verify their results.
He acknowledged a problem might arise if verification of KPU results led to the discovery of discrepancies.
The question is whether an election monitoring agency has to immediately expose this discrepancy to the public, at the risk of sparking chaos.
"It is at this juncture that a poll watchdog should assume its responsibility and act with great caution. We must weigh carefully whether or not it is for the good of the society if we, the intellectuals joining the election monitoring agency, divulge the discrepancy to the public. Who will be responsible if this exposure leads to social turmoil?
"So, the exposure of discrepancies in data must be weighed very carefully because this may also enhance the community's confidence in the credibility of poll watchdogs," Sapi'ie said.
If contradictory data stems from foul play, the situation will be of great concern. Should this scenario play out, election monitoring agencies must not stay silent, especially now that there are 48 parties which must be ranked according to the percentage of the vote won.