Reconciliation or reform?

Having acceptably settled the question of what to do with the biggest vote-winner in the general election -- the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) and its hugely popular chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri -- Indonesia now faces the dilemma of balancing the need to push on with reforms and achieving national reconciliation.

Indonesia in its present state of chaos clearly needs to address both issues. To complicate matters, the two matters are interrelated: one cannot be achieved without the other. Our economy is at its lowest point in more than three decades and a specter of discord that is social, political and sectarian in nature, is threatening the nation's cohesion. In order to revive the country's devastated economy, stability must be restored. Contingent on this recovery, however, will be the establishment of a general mood of social and political accord among the diverse sections of society.

By accommodating the interests of PDI Perjuangan and naming Megawati as Vice President, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) may have prevented the country from being wracked by widespread violence. But the horse-trading, the bargaining and maneuverings that finally resulted in the allotment of the most strategic political positions -- as represented by the current political constellation -- have in the process created political obligations and commitments that cannot be ignored if stability through accord is to be preserved.

Many observers and analysts fear that these obligations will make it difficult for President Abdurrahman Wahid to meet some of the most fundamental objectives of the reform movement, which student and youth activists set into motion shortly before the fall of former president Soeharto. Obviously, the first and most fundamental of those objectives is to ensure that the movement stays on track.

No one doubts the sincerity of President Abdurrahman's commitment to reform and democratization -- he was after all a leading proponent of these standards even at a time when former authoritarian president Soeharto was held a firm grip on power. Nonetheless, analysts have aired concerns that the compromises Abdurrahman could be compelled to make to honor deals and commitments made in the run-up to his election to ensure support for his candidacy could prevent him from acting as his personal conscience and convictions dictate.

Abdurrahman's consultations held last week with a number of former Soeharto aides, for example, has sent negative signals to political observers and market players alike. Another fear is that those political deals could force the President to compromise on his determination to put an end once and for all to corruption, collusion and nepotism. Such developments would certainly deter investors from returning to Indonesia at a time when funds are crucially needed.

This is why the market and the public are currently anxiously awaiting the composition of President Abdurrahman's new Cabinet and his team of advisers. Since first impressions are often the strongest, these first few weeks and months will provide an opportunity which is too good to be missed for the new government to rebuild the confidence that has been shattered under past regimes.

With so many different party representatives expected to play a role in the next government, another concern, at least as far as the public is concerned, is who will play the vital opposition role.

Given the possibility of a weak legislature, it could be that in the months ahead the media and other independent organizations will be called on to assume a check-and-balance role, without which a relapse into authoritarianism is always possible.