Recent trends in international arms trade

By Anak Agung Banyu Perwita

BANDUNG (JP): In the past 20 years, the size and distribution of conventional arms transfers was determined principally by two factors. First, the East-West confrontation -- in particular the adverse nature of the Super Power relationship. Second, the collective failure of all parties to manage or to solve conflict in the Third World. A change in one of these areas would have a crucial impact on the international arms trade.

In the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union there have been important changes in all of them. As a result, the pattern of future development is unpredictable but could significantly alter the size and shape of the global arms market in the 1990s.

The international arms trade is now one of the most alarming factors contributing to the growing militarization of the world. The arms trade with Third World countries has caused the most attention and concern, both because to a large extent it represents an extension of the conflict between East and West and because the weapons supplied to these countries have been extensively used. Empirically, all major wars since 1945 have been fought in the Third World and with conventional weapons supplied by the main industrialized arms producing countries.

Two-thirds of the international arms trade, for instance, involves transfer of weapons to the Third World, a good part of which is still less developed, and suffers from starvation and disease.

The high level of arms spending in the Third World not only diverts resources that are urgently needed for dealing effectively with these problems, but also exacerbates these problems. Large military expenditure contributes to the depletion of natural resources, tends to aggravate inflationary tendencies and adds to existing balance of payments problems.

In this way, they have contributed to economic disruption and political instability in some Third World countries. Even so, the implications of arms on the scale of the post-war period are much more pervasive than mere economic considerations would suggest.

The combination of regional conflict hot spots and the availability of funds keeps the international arms trade running. The global arms trade has enabled many Third World countries to achieve significant military capability through foreign assistance and start an infant arms industries of their own.

Even though the arms trade now combines traditional and new methods of trading, several additional trends are apparent in the flow of weapons. The sale of complete weapon systems has given way to the sale of components that can be assembled on the spot or combined with systems from other countries to enhance existing weapons designed at lower costs. This arrangement relives purchasing countries of the need to constantly buy new top of the line equipment and also allows them to partially conceal the ultimate design of their weapons.

It is relatively easy to acquire components suitable for weapons production and evade restrictions or embargoes since certain products are often classified as having a dual function for both civilian and military production. The discovery of Iraq's nuclear weapons program points at the proliferation of dual-use components.

Another clear trend since the 1980s has been the advance in sophistication of weapons transfer. In addition to transfers, many countries now have a record of manufacturing various forms of ballistic missiles. The bulk of weapons and manufacturing know-how still involves a relatively short range and often rather inaccurate equipment, but there was a remarkable increase of available firepower by the late 1980s.

The implications of such technological proliferation are still being debated. Some argue that higher-tech weapons make their users more dependent on major power suppliers, especially in the heat of battle. There are also a number of key questions which have to be answered. How many weapons are enough? Can we stop the proliferation of armaments around the globe, particularly in Third World countries?

To answer these questions, we must first define the mode of arms transfer which exists today and determine the reasons and consequences of such transfers. This task relates both to arms production and trade, two key forms of economic activity in today's world.

The writer is a lecturer at the Department of International Relations, Parahyangan Catholic University, Bandung.