Rebels test Arroyo's strength

Rebels test Arroyo's strength

The Strait Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

The situation in the southern Philippines is a threat, for
both Manila's national calm and its implications for Southeast
Asia during a delicate confluence of international security and
economic uncertainties. On Wednesday some 100 hostages were
released by forces of a rebel wing of the Moro National
Liberation Front (MNLF), which had fought government forces in a
sharp battle the day before.

This was a rare negotiated ending, in exchange for the rebels'
safe passage out of Zamboanga where the fighting had taken place.
Philippine military and political chiefs are rightly thankful no
hostage was harmed, but they should not be congratulating
themselves. They should be alarmed at how and why the dynamic of
armed insurrection is playing out all over again.

In the space of a week, Nur Misuari's disaffected MNLF
followers staged two bloody strikes, with about 180 rebels and
government troops killed. What should set the Manila
establishment thinking is that the second attack on Tuesday
happened when Misuari was nowhere near to direct operations.

He had been traced to Sabah in East Malaysia on Saturday, days
after the first battle on Jolo island. Misuari, the elected
governor of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is a
fugitive and a traitor, according to the authorities. His faction
of the MNLF is a patchwork force with no known command structure.

But look at how it was able to stage the second strike, and
the damage it did to the local population and the central
government's standing in the south. As if the Abu Sayyaf and its
persistent kidnap forays were not bad enough, the splintered
MNLF's taking up of arms will almost certainly return the
Philippines to another warring period.

This cannot be helpful for the ASEAN region battling, at the
same time, a decline in economic vitality and poor notices
internationally for its security vulnerabilities.

President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's government is faced with a
two-in-one conundrum. It will take the right strategy and a
definable political option to surmount the challenge to her
authority.

Militarily, there is no escaping the fact her army will have
to fight the guerrillas with more professionalism than has been
shown. Admittedly, this is not easy. Thousands of MNLF rebels
went "legit" under the terms of the 1996 agreement between
Misuari and the Fidel Ramos government setting up the ARMM.

They joined the national army and police. It would cross the
minds of the armed forces brass that the allegiance of these men
would be under stress now that the MNLF-Misuari has crossed over
to the other side. This is only one imponderable.

There are operational oddities too. The freedom for MNLF
rebels to leave Zamboanga unmolested yesterday was effected with
the brigands going out with their guns. Why were they not
disarmed?

The other challenge is the more critical political one. The
compact with the Muslim south under the 1996 agreement should be
rescued, and not abandoned as a failure. Misuari is damaged
goods, as he is deemed to have failed both the people and Manila
as governor of the ARMM. A new governor was elected on Monday,
one endorsed by Manila.

The central authorities need to take a hand in getting the new
ARMM administration organized, and ensure audits are made of the
development projects and the billions of pesos funneled to the
south for reconstruction. Autonomy cannot mean hands-off totally.
Avoiding a repeat of the Misuari failure is key to resolving a
large part of the Mindanao problem.