Reading the polls

Reading the polls

If the vote-count proceeds according to schedule, the final
tally will be completed in less than a fortnight. As expected,
the political temperature rose once the ballot counting started
after the April 5 legislative election.

Last Friday, almost all of the 24 parties contesting the
election demanded that the General Elections Commission (KPU)
recount the ballots, alleging widespread vote-rigging. They seem
ignorant that such a public plea is against the law. Election-
related cases are handled by the Constitutional Court and they
can only bring cases to the court after the final count.

Two days later, 19 parties formed an alliance and posed a more
bizarre demand -- that of a revote. Sources said the alliance was
a veiled attempt to block the reelection of Megawati
Soekarnoputri. The political sentiment is clear: ABM -- Anything
But Megawati.

On Tuesday, National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman Amien Rais,
who is also Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR),
set up the Save the Nation Axis along with Prosperous Justice
Party (PKS) chairman Hidayat Nur Wahid.

Amien immediately drew criticism from various camps that
accused him of political maneuvering to advance his presidential
ambition. Ranking seventh in the polls as of Thursday with about
5.5 million votes, PAN feels it has performed below its
expectations, so a coalition has become an option.

Amien's move has reminded the public of his Central Axis, a
loose grouping of Islamic-oriented parties that succeeded in 1999
to block Megawati from the presidency, although her party won the
election.

So far, Amien has not posed a serious threat to other leading
contenders, particularly Golkar and the PDI-P, which rank first
and second, respectively, in the current vote tally. The PDI-P is
led by Megawati and Golkar by Akbar Tandjung, a bureaucrat-cum-
politician nurtured under the Soeharto's authoritarian regime.

Interestingly, the upstart Democratic Party and the six-year-
old PKS have a strong showing at the polls.

The PDI-P seems likely to garner less votes than the record 33
percent that won it the top slot in the 1999 election. Golkar,
the electoral vehicle of former president Gen. (ret) Soeharto,
looks set to overshoot its 1999 achievement of 22 percent.

The PDI-P's poor showing is attributable to the disappointment
of its supporters in the party and its leader, whom they had
tacitly learned had an authoritarian streak: Megawati has often
picked regents or governors against the interests of her
supporters. Five years after the reformation movement, the people
are also tired of waiting for a change that never comes.

Now that 60 percent of the ballots have been counted, what is
indicated by the current results?

On the one hand, the tally shows that those who prefer the old
school of politics are still strong: Golkar, the PDI-P and the
United Development Party (PPP) have respectively taken the first,
second and fourth slots. On the other hand, a wish for political
change is reflected in the parties ranking fifth and sixth -- the
Democratic Party and the PKS.

Lest we forget, this election has pitted well-established
parties against relatively new parties. The National Awakening
Party (PKB), which has come in third, and the PKS have only been
on the political scene these past six years, while the Democratic
Party has been around only three years.

It would be illuminating to probe deeper into the demographics
of those supporting well-established parties and those supporting
new parties; in particular, whether those who desire change live
mostly in urban areas and whether the greater availability of
information in cities, as opposed to rural areas, has influenced
their stance.

There are many questions that need to be asked in regards the
election. Among the more pertinent are: what will happen with the
development of democracy? Which leader would bring a change for
the better?

Taking a cue from the last election, the Democratic Party
bears a resemblance to the PDI-P. In 1999, Megawati was the
champion of the poor and it was this image that won her the
presidency. Today, the Democratic Party's presidential candidate,
former top security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is seen by
his supporters as a victim of Megawati's political sidelining.
However, like the PDI-P in 1999, the party grossly lacks quality
legislators, so history is likely to repeat itself if Susilo's
party should win the election.

Given the current political system under which political
parties still wield a lot of power, the next head of state must
have a solid relationship with the House of Representatives, as
he or she must make a lot of political concessions.

Seen from this perspective -- barring the emergence of other
leaders -- Akbar Tandjung will be a more viable choice than
Susilo. The downside is that Akbar faces many obstacles: He must
win the presidential candidacy at the Golkar convention next week
while he grapples with his tainted image as a corrupt politician
-- never mind his acquittal.

We may agree with analysts who say that our leaders are of an
appalling quality. Yet, save their gross shortcomings, we must
learn to accept whatever leaders come to the fore.

Under such circumstances, the least the people can ask for is
a leader who is able to deliver the message that we are, indeed,
moving forward. The indication is clear -- no matter how faint it
may seem -- that people are ready and willing for change.
Otherwise, we will be in for another five years without any
reforms.