Reading the polls

If the vote-count proceeds according to schedule, the final tally will be completed in less than a fortnight. As expected, the political temperature rose once the ballot counting started after the April 5 legislative election.

Last Friday, almost all of the 24 parties contesting the election demanded that the General Elections Commission (KPU) recount the ballots, alleging widespread vote-rigging. They seem ignorant that such a public plea is against the law. Election- related cases are handled by the Constitutional Court and they can only bring cases to the court after the final count.

Two days later, 19 parties formed an alliance and posed a more bizarre demand -- that of a revote. Sources said the alliance was a veiled attempt to block the reelection of Megawati Soekarnoputri. The political sentiment is clear: ABM -- Anything But Megawati.

On Tuesday, National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman Amien Rais, who is also Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), set up the Save the Nation Axis along with Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) chairman Hidayat Nur Wahid.

Amien immediately drew criticism from various camps that accused him of political maneuvering to advance his presidential ambition. Ranking seventh in the polls as of Thursday with about 5.5 million votes, PAN feels it has performed below its expectations, so a coalition has become an option.

Amien's move has reminded the public of his Central Axis, a loose grouping of Islamic-oriented parties that succeeded in 1999 to block Megawati from the presidency, although her party won the election.

So far, Amien has not posed a serious threat to other leading contenders, particularly Golkar and the PDI-P, which rank first and second, respectively, in the current vote tally. The PDI-P is led by Megawati and Golkar by Akbar Tandjung, a bureaucrat-cum- politician nurtured under the Soeharto's authoritarian regime.

Interestingly, the upstart Democratic Party and the six-year- old PKS have a strong showing at the polls.

The PDI-P seems likely to garner less votes than the record 33 percent that won it the top slot in the 1999 election. Golkar, the electoral vehicle of former president Gen. (ret) Soeharto, looks set to overshoot its 1999 achievement of 22 percent.

The PDI-P's poor showing is attributable to the disappointment of its supporters in the party and its leader, whom they had tacitly learned had an authoritarian streak: Megawati has often picked regents or governors against the interests of her supporters. Five years after the reformation movement, the people are also tired of waiting for a change that never comes.

Now that 60 percent of the ballots have been counted, what is indicated by the current results?

On the one hand, the tally shows that those who prefer the old school of politics are still strong: Golkar, the PDI-P and the United Development Party (PPP) have respectively taken the first, second and fourth slots. On the other hand, a wish for political change is reflected in the parties ranking fifth and sixth -- the Democratic Party and the PKS.

Lest we forget, this election has pitted well-established parties against relatively new parties. The National Awakening Party (PKB), which has come in third, and the PKS have only been on the political scene these past six years, while the Democratic Party has been around only three years.

It would be illuminating to probe deeper into the demographics of those supporting well-established parties and those supporting new parties; in particular, whether those who desire change live mostly in urban areas and whether the greater availability of information in cities, as opposed to rural areas, has influenced their stance.

There are many questions that need to be asked in regards the election. Among the more pertinent are: what will happen with the development of democracy? Which leader would bring a change for the better?

Taking a cue from the last election, the Democratic Party bears a resemblance to the PDI-P. In 1999, Megawati was the champion of the poor and it was this image that won her the presidency. Today, the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, former top security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is seen by his supporters as a victim of Megawati's political sidelining. However, like the PDI-P in 1999, the party grossly lacks quality legislators, so history is likely to repeat itself if Susilo's party should win the election.

Given the current political system under which political parties still wield a lot of power, the next head of state must have a solid relationship with the House of Representatives, as he or she must make a lot of political concessions.

Seen from this perspective -- barring the emergence of other leaders -- Akbar Tandjung will be a more viable choice than Susilo. The downside is that Akbar faces many obstacles: He must win the presidential candidacy at the Golkar convention next week while he grapples with his tainted image as a corrupt politician -- never mind his acquittal.

We may agree with analysts who say that our leaders are of an appalling quality. Yet, save their gross shortcomings, we must learn to accept whatever leaders come to the fore.

Under such circumstances, the least the people can ask for is a leader who is able to deliver the message that we are, indeed, moving forward. The indication is clear -- no matter how faint it may seem -- that people are ready and willing for change. Otherwise, we will be in for another five years without any reforms.