Rational approach necessary

While soothsayers and fortune-tellers are popular in Indonesia, perhaps a rational approach to predicting the future would benefit this country more. For example, the retaliatory atrocities committed in Aceh recently surely were wholly predictable given the extent of the resentment that must have built up against the Armed Forces (ABRI) over the past decade in particular. One must wonder, therefore, at the naivete of allowing off-duty soldiers to use public transport in Aceh and permitting large numbers of soldiers to be billeted above detainees when emotions are running high. However, in Aceh these mistakes have been made and there is little to be gained from crying over spilled milk.

Instead, let us rationally look forward to the general election to be held in June. What scenario are we likely to arrive at if all relevant factors are taken into consideration? In this country there are now well over one hundred political parties, highlighted ethnic and religious differences, miscreants of the Soeharto regime who fear losing their fortunes and freedom if a president is democratically elected, the ABRI still performing a dual military and sociopolitical role and a population distrustful of its government, doubting its willingness to hold a fair general election.

A veritable powder keg? Even without a severe economic crisis, yes indeed. One can foresee certain interest groups, with a great deal to lose from the advancement of democracy, deliberately engineering discord and welcoming the inevitable bickering among numerous minority parties. So too can one envisage power groups jockeying with each other to align themselves with ABRI. Is it not just possible that these things will be done in the cause of destabilizing the country and as a precursor to renewed armed intervention and authoritarianism?

One way of forestalling this would be to obtain a categorical assurance from world economic powers and the Indonesian military that a military based government would not be an acceptable option under any circumstances. However, obtaining such an assurance from America, for all its pretensions about upholding democracy and given its paranoia of Islamic fundamentalism, will, of course, be difficult.

The democratic forces in this country would do well to take heed of the maxim: to be forewarned is to be forearmed. There will be little point in crying "foul" after the event.

FRANK RICHARDSON

Jakarta