Rational approach necessary

Rational approach necessary

While soothsayers and fortune-tellers are popular in
Indonesia, perhaps a rational approach to predicting the future
would benefit this country more. For example, the retaliatory
atrocities committed in Aceh recently surely were wholly
predictable given the extent of the resentment that must have
built up against the Armed Forces (ABRI) over the past decade in
particular. One must wonder, therefore, at the naivete of
allowing off-duty soldiers to use public transport in Aceh and
permitting large numbers of soldiers to be billeted above
detainees when emotions are running high. However, in Aceh these
mistakes have been made and there is little to be gained from
crying over spilled milk.

Instead, let us rationally look forward to the general
election to be held in June. What scenario are we likely to
arrive at if all relevant factors are taken into consideration?
In this country there are now well over one hundred political
parties, highlighted ethnic and religious differences, miscreants
of the Soeharto regime who fear losing their fortunes and freedom
if a president is democratically elected, the ABRI still
performing a dual military and sociopolitical role and a
population distrustful of its government, doubting its
willingness to hold a fair general election.

A veritable powder keg? Even without a severe economic crisis,
yes indeed. One can foresee certain interest groups, with a great
deal to lose from the advancement of democracy, deliberately
engineering discord and welcoming the inevitable bickering among
numerous minority parties. So too can one envisage power groups
jockeying with each other to align themselves with ABRI. Is it
not just possible that these things will be done in the cause of
destabilizing the country and as a precursor to renewed armed
intervention and authoritarianism?

One way of forestalling this would be to obtain a categorical
assurance from world economic powers and the Indonesian military
that a military based government would not be an acceptable
option under any circumstances. However, obtaining such an
assurance from America, for all its pretensions about upholding
democracy and given its paranoia of Islamic fundamentalism, will,
of course, be difficult.

The democratic forces in this country would do well to take
heed of the maxim: to be forewarned is to be forearmed. There
will be little point in crying "foul" after the event.

FRANK RICHARDSON

Jakarta