Tue, 13 Sep 1994

Rainy season likely to come late for most of Java: Karjoto

JAKARTA (JP): The weathermen have more bad news for farmers, the government and the people of Java and eastern Indonesia who are experiencing water shortages.

The official weather agency predicts that the rainy season is coming late this year for many parts of Indonesia, and for some it won't even start until December. When it does finally come, the rainfall in some areas is predicted to be below normal.

The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency presented its latest weather predictions for the next six months yesterday and the outlook does not look good.

The agency's chief Karjoto told a press conference yesterday that half the country would enter the rainy season at a later date than usual.

Based on weather observations at 93 stations across Indonesia, he said, 17 percent of the areas will suffer the most from delayed rainfall.

The most affected regions include the eastern part of Kuningan and Cirebon, regarded as Indonesia's main "rice bowl" areas, the northern coasts of Central and East Java and Banyuwangi in the easternmost part of Java.

Beyond Java, the outlook is also grim. The rainy season will also be delayed in Madura Island, the western coast of Sumbawa Island, East Sumba and Flores, the Solor and Alor Islands, the northern part of East Timor, parts of South Sulawesi, the southeastern part of the Maluku Islands and southern Merauke.

Rice bowls

Regions around the northern coast of West Java, including Karawang, Subang, Sumedang, which are among the country's "rice- bowls," are expected to start getting rain in mid-November.

Karjoto said the central regions of North Sumatra and most of West and Central Java, which only make up one percent of the total observed areas, would be the areas to get the first showers of rainfall, predicted for some time between the beginning and the middle of this month.

The agency predicts that in 33 percent of the observed regions, the level of rainfall will drop to below normal.

These include the northern coasts of West and Central Java, Jakarta and the western part of East Java's southern coast.

In fifty-five percent of the regions, which include most of West and East Java, the central and eastern parts of Central Java, South Sumatra and Bali, rainfall is expected to be around the normal level.

In 12 percent of the regions, including the northern part of Bandung, the central parts of West and Central Java, Lampung and Lombok Islands, rainfall levels are predicted to rise above normal.

Karjoto explained that until the end of August, the sea surface temperature of most of Indonesia's waters were below normal. This condition, he said, has been going on over the last three to four months, causing little or no rain at all across the country.

An evaluation of the dry season showed that in 96 percent of the country's regions, dry season rainfalls have dropped to below normal and only four percent are at a normal level, he said.

The long drought, or dry season, which started in late March, has caused some 110,000 hectares of paddy fields on Java to fail, causing the total national rice output to drop by four percent.

Indonesia, whose population relies heavily on rice as a main source of nutrition, has some 3.5 billion hectares of irrigated land in 10 provinces known as the nation's "rice bowls."

In July, vegetable prices also rose by seven to 22 percent at Jakarta's Kramat Jati wholesale market, which receives supplies from West Java plantations.

The government through the National Logistics Agency (Bulog) took the initiative to conduct a special market operation which was aimed at stabilizing soaring rice prices.

The Ministry of Public Works also carried out cloud-seeding and operated "balloon dams" to provide irrigation to paddy fields.

In a further step to overcome rice shortage problems, Indonesia is asking payment from Vietnam and the Philippines, both of whom received rice loans from Indonesia in the past.

Indonesia, which used to be the largest rice importer in the world, became self-sufficient in rice in 1984. (pwn)