Quo vadis reform?

Bidding farewell to the old year 2001 will not be a heart- breaking event for most Indonesians, as it will end without leaving any sweet memories. On the other hand, welcoming in the new year won't be a particularly joyous occasion either, as 2002 seems set to offer a great deal of uncertainty.

Indonesians tiptoed into this year with the lingering trauma of the Christmas Eve bombings, hoping against hope that then president Abdurrahman Wahid and vice president Megawati Soekarnoputri would somehow be able to put the nation back on the right track toward a more humane, civil society.

Instead, the first half of 2001 witnessed the heightening political crisis that eventually brought down Abdurrahman Wahid and anointed Megawati as the fifth president of the republic. The second half of the year was no better. Burdened with the policy chaos that she inherited from previous governments, President Megawati had barely begun her work when the world was rocked by the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S. And all the while the Indonesian economy muddled through a difficult environment, recording lower growth than in the previous year.

The political reform movement of 1998 that forced Soeharto to quit his presidency should have become an important watershed in the development of various sectors in Indonesia. Reform was supposed to bring the nation back in line with the goal its founding fathers dreamt about more than half a century ago: that is, building a sovereign nation across a sprawling archipelagic country, where hundreds of ethnic groups from diverse historical, religious and cultural backgrounds could establish a more humane, civil society.

To achieve this aim, the entire political, social and economic legacy of Soeharto's regime, which has seen the whole nation being subjected to the supremacy of the state, has to be fundamentally reformed. Otherwise, ensuing governments will only perpetuate the old legacy of the state at the expense of the people.

In fact that is exactly what has happened over the last three years under three consecutive presidents.

From the standpoint of genuine reform leading to a new Indonesia that would be more just, more affluent, more democratic and more humane, the nation has not moved far from where it was when Soeharto decided to quit in May 1998. The outdated and easily manipulated Constitution of 1945 is still there, the notorious KKN (corruption, collusion, and nepotism) is ubiquitous, the corrupt and inept bureaucracy has not changed, human rights abuses continue, horizontal conflicts have not abated, the legal system and its apparatus keep on insulting the people's sense of justice, the futile political institutions and organizations are not any better, and so forth.

There is some semblance of progress. To mention just one example, the implementation of regional autonomy as stipulated by laws no. 22/1999 and no. 25/1999 made its debut early this year. However, both laws were so ill-prepared that the resulting effects have created more costs than benefits for the nation as a whole, as well as for the common people in the regions. It looks more likely to spread the diseases of the central government to the regional governments in terms of KKN, irresponsibility, a lack of accountability, disregard of the environment and the concentration of wealth around people in power.

The end result is less and less confidence in the government, in the bureaucracy, whether civilian or military, in the House(s) of Representatives, in the whole legal system, in anything that connotes power. Hence, for example, the inhuman practice of "justice" by the people in the streets who burn thieves when they are caught red-handed. And it is not surprising either that investment in the country has been decreasing, whether from local business people or from foreign sources.

The coming year will be crucial for President Megawati and the whole nation. From the political point of view, nobody can guarantee the survival of her presidency through the next MPR (People's Consultative Assembly). And the country simply cannot afford another president after all these years. From the economic point of view, all indicators point to the high probability of less growth, which at the least means more unemployment.

Nevertheless, with the global economic outlook promising a rebound before the end of next year due to lower oil prices and lower interest rates, there will still be a good chance that Indonesia can survive economically next year with the right prescription.

All it needs is strong leadership, coming from the president herself, with the right sense of urgency to steer the nation back on the right track toward a more humane, civil society. To accomplish that, the nation should first of all realize that it has been moving on the wrong track for the last three years.