Quebec's future

The Quebec government's bid to create a French-language republic in North America has become a serious possibility, with a late surge of support for the yes vote in a referendum on independence from Canada.

Polls put the separatists head-to-head with those supporting Quebec remaining in Canada, as the campaign intensifies in the lead-up to tomorrow's referendum.

If the "Yes" side wins, the 128-year-old confederation will break up, or at least be reconfigured with new power for Quebec.

Even if the separatists fall short of an absolute win, opinion polls show the French-speaking majority in Quebec is overwhelmingly in favor of the proposal, with the English- speaking minority overwhelmingly against it.

Such a position is likely to raise tensions between the two communities in Quebec and create further demands from the Quebec government for a special deal for the province.

The separatists have achieved an extraordinary turnabout in the polls in the past two weeks, having earlier been running between five and 10 percentage points behind the federalists.

The improved fortunes appear to be the result of a bold step taken by the separatist camp to replace its official figurehead.

Quebec Premier Jacques Parizeau effectively stepped down from the role of leader of the "Yes" campaign earlier this month, deferring to the more engaging federal leader of the opposition, Lucien Bouchard.

Parizeau, an economist, who led his Parti Quebecois to victory in the provincial election in September last year, produced a range of complex arguments about why Quebec would be better off financially as an independent nation.

But he failed to inspire, presenting an image on television of the university professor he used to be.

The head of the "No" campaign, provincial opposition leader Daniel Johnson, has said more than 90,000 jobs would be at risk if the referendum succeeds.

Aiding to the "No" cause is the solid support of the mainstream business community, whose peak organization, the Conseil De Patronat, has set up a body with the sole purpose of beating the separatists through a series of publications, media statements and rallies.

Whatever the outcome tomorrow, it seems that the kind of divorce from Canada that appeals to the Quebecois is one that involves living in a separate house, while retaining visiting bedroom rights and receiving a bit of alimony.

-- The Nation, Bangkok