Pyongyang should turn toward Seoul
The Korea Herald, Asia News Network, Seoul
If North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is truly wise and has some insight into international politics, he can prove it by making a visit to Seoul before President Roh Moo-hyun goes to Washington next month. He has had a standing invitation from Seoul since former President Kim Dae-jung met him in Pyongyang nearly three years ago. The Blue House reconfirmed it recently.
If there is not enough time for him to make the arrangements required for a top-level encounter, Kim may at least establish a firm schedule for his "return visit." Global events have been moving speedily since the Iraq war started on March 20. Leaders on the Korean Peninsula should also move quickly, as the world's attention is turning toward this side of the globe with the near conclusion of the Middle East conflict.
Last week, Pyongyang might have been somewhat encouraged as China and Russia, at the UN Security Council, effectively blocked a U.S. move to pass a resolution to impose sanctions on North Korea. Washington initiated the motion as Pyongyang's withdrawal from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty took effect Thursday, 90 days after its announcement. But there are signs that North Korea's two closest neighbors and former allies are stepping up pressure on the regime to be more moderate.
Unconfirmed but reliable reports have it that Kim Jong-il paid a secret visit to Beijing last month, shortly after the start of the war in Iraq. Kim may have tried to seek the new Chinese leadership's backing on the ongoing nuclear standoff with the United States, but it may not be all cheers from President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, who took office last month. In all likelihood, China's patented quiet diplomacy is to keep Pyongyang from "playing with fire."
Warnings are being served that the North cannot expect China's help if it provokes a U.S. preemptive strike on its nuclear development center. We know that China, the only source of oil to North Korea, shut down its pipeline from neighboring Liaoning province for three days in early March. Speculation is rife that it was Beijing's tough reaction against the North following its test-firing of a missile into the East Sea.
Russia is more direct in opposing North Korea's nuclear ambitions, and has clarified that it will not tolerate the development of nuclear weapons by its southeastern neighbor. Moscow's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov's remarks last week calling North Korea's nuclear development categorically "against Russia's national interests" were no doubt made with the Iraq war in mind.
Both China and Russia are seriously concerned about the possibility of the United States' military action against North Korea following its triumph in Iraq. Besides, they harbor serious worries that North Korea's nuclear armament will set off a nuclear arms race in Northeast Asia among Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. Playing on these fears, Washington has wisely involved the surrounding nations in seeking to resolve the North's nuclear question, snubbing its insistence on a bilateral approach.
Kim Jong-il must have felt that he was reaching the limit in increasing the ante in the game with Washington that began last October. He is now seeing the fate of a regime that failed to exercise flexibility and sincerity in dealing with the world's only superpower. Last week, Pyongyang backed off and sent a signal that it would accept U.S. demands for multilateral discussions over its nuclear program.
North Korea asked for "a bold switchover" in the United States' Korea policy. With typical rhetoric, Pyongyang's official statement sought to save its face, but it also exposed an attempt to prolong the process with its usual tactics to earn both time for the continuation of its clandestine projects and material aid offered for a halt to them.
But the current situation is turning worse for Pyongyang diplomatically, militarily and economically. Facing the emboldened United States, the North must be finding that the only weapon it can depend upon is fear in the South: The fear of the economic burden caused by an implosion of the northern half, and fear of the "sea of fire" here caused by a war.
Kim Jong-il must know that President Roh is the partner most willing to help the North through a multilateral approach, for he shares a strong interest in avoiding a military solution to the problem. Having proved his ability to pull off surprises throughout his 10-year rule, Kim is urged to come to Seoul to discuss in all earnest what is good for the future of the divided nation.