Putin on course for election win

By Brian Killen

MOSCOW (Reuters): Three weeks before Russia's presidential election, Vladimir Putin is so far ahead of the pack that the only questions are over his winning margin and how he will rule the world's biggest country.

If pollsters are to be believed, Putin is on track to win outright in the March 26 first round vote and take Boris Yeltsin's place in the Kremlin for at least the next four years.

The polls give Putin, acting president since Yeltsin's shock New Year's Eve resignation, up to 60 percent support, almost three times more than his nearest rival and enough to clear the 50 percent barrier needed to avoid a run-off.

But a lackluster election campaign and a total lack of suspense over the outcome could lead to widespread voter apathy. If turnout is below 50 percent, a new vote would have to be held within three months, but analysts say this is unlikely.

Gennady Seleznyov, Communist speaker of the State Duma lower house of parliament, described the election campaign as "listless" and predicted a run-off vote between Putin and his main challenger, Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov.

He told a news conference in St Petersburg that Putin had the advantage of being in power but that Zyuganov was cranking up his campaign. "It is unlikely that anyone will manage to win outright in the first round," he said.

As in December's parliamentary election, issues are hardly being discussed at all. Putin has made only extremely vague proposals for reviving the economy and rival candidates are struggling to find policies to criticize.

Few candidates in the field of 11 have dared speak out against the five-month war in Chechnya -- the main source of Putin's popularity as he taps widespread longing for a strong hand, discipline and order after a decade of turmoil.

Putin, 47, is riding a wave of nationalism with his promises to make Russia a great, prosperous and respected power again.

Most Russians are fed up with lawlessness and Putin's tough- guy approach has struck a chord in a nation whose self-esteem has been battered by years of political and economic chaos, not to mention humiliation in the previous Chechnya war.

However, some media commentators have voiced misgivings about his calls for more order, sensing a threat to democracy.

Leonid Radzikhovsky wrote recently in the newspaper Sevodnya about questions hanging over Putin. "We do not know how he will rule. But this is impossible to know -- it can only be seen. And he will soon show us...which is what many people fear," he said.

Putin, Yeltsin's hand-picked successor, has dismissed such fears, pledging to uphold democracy and promote a market economy in which fair competition will be the order of the day.

"The stronger the state, the freer the individual," the ex-KGB spy said in an open letter to voters last month.

Eric Kraus, chief strategist at NIKoil Capital Markets, doubted fundamental freedoms were threatened, though he said Russia's "uncritically liberal and pro-Western phase" was over.

"The man in the street once again sees the West as hostile and hypocritical, determined to keep Russia in her new-found third world position," Kraus said in a research note.

"The widespread criticism of Russia during the Chechnya war has merely served to confirm this feeling," he added, referring to Western concern over alleged human rights abuses.

At the moment, everything appears to be working in Putin's favor, even the economy, lending credibility to his promises of "a decent life".

High world energy and metal market prices have given Russia a windfall worth billions of dollars, allowing the government to boost tax revenues, repay foreign debt and finance the military campaign in Chechnya.

Pyotr Aven, president of Alfa Bank and a former foreign trade minister, wrote in the leading business daily Kommersant last week that Russia was entering a new era of hope, but he warned that it could still go wrong for Putin.

"The more popular is the leader promising wonders, the more he will be hated when the miracle does not happen," he said, adding that this happened with Yeltsin and with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev.

"Alas, this will probably happen with Putin."