Protests: What will happen next?

Student protests have occurred almost daily for the past two months. The Jakarta Post reporters Ahmad Junaidi, Arief Suhardiman, Ati Nurbaiti, Benget Simbolon, Emmy Fitri, Kornelius Purba, Riyadi, Efendy Naibaho, Arifuddin Saeni, Ainur R. Sophiaan, Israr Ardiansyah, Haryoso and MMI Ahyani have talked to students, observers, former activists and ordinary people on the sidelines of student rallies to find out where things will go from here.

JAKARTA (JP): Molotov cocktails hurled at riot police? Aren't these students going a bit too far? A photocopy shop owner in Medan, where the petrol bombs were thrown, certainly felt protests at the University of North Sumatra weren't doing him any good. If things continue at this rate his business will soon go under.

While many people claim to support the student demands for clean governance and lower prices, they deplore violence and destruction.

Already a number of students and security officers have been injured in places where the demonstrations have escalated.

Virtually every city and town in the country that has a university or college has borne witness to a student protest. One of the largest so far occurred in Yogyakarta in March. Estimates suggest that 25,000 people were involved.

Most protesters have exercised restraint. When marching on the street, they are often seen huddled in columns demarcated by string or rope, even on marches over short distances.

Some activists are embarrassed by this -- it reflects "exclusivity", they say -- but it is a practice they have developed after learning from past protests.

In the past, students were often blamed for turning their protests into riots. The string and rope is used to encircle the protesters and prevent intrusions from potential agitators. The government has repeatedly warned that protests could easily be infiltrated "by certain parties taking advantage of the situation".

The public attitude toward the protests is still ambiguous.

Students claim to represent the aspirations of the people, but even members of the public who have openly supported the protests have never verified this statement explicitly.

Arbi Sanit, a political scientist and lecturer at the University of Indonesia, says that a united understanding of what sort of reform everybody wants has yet to emerge.

Radical?

Sarwono Kusumaatmadja, a student leader in the 1960s who served in President Soeharto's cabinet for 10 years until last February, believes few people want a revolution.

"Even the students don't want that," Sarwono said.

There is no need for fancy theories about revolution, just respond to this student anger, the former environment minister said. "We have the answers to economic problems, some of which were provided by outside parties. But political solutions must come from within."

With protests escalating and demands becoming bolder, analysts have speculated that radical opinion is spreading among the student movement.

For example, several student groups refused to take part in last month's dialog with senior members of the cabinet, insisting that they would only talk to the President.

They are calling for "total reform" and are refusing to compromise on their demands. The number of students taking part in the protests is also growing, and lately, at least in Medan, students have begun using Molotov cocktails.

Observers say radicalism is not a feature of today's demonstrations given that ideology is no longer an issue. But they believe that protests could escalate and spread in the absence of any significant improvement in the country's situation.

Where is all this leading to?

Alliances between students and the public are developing as public sympathy for the students' cause grows, Sarwono says, noting that some government officials have also shown an understanding of what the students aim to achieve.

Sarwono recalls that in 1966, the military took a firm stand.

"What the movement needs to give it further impetus is for a leader in the government to publicly declare his or her support for the students," he said.

Islamic scholar Nurcholis Madjid said students and other pro- reform activists should encourage a prominent, pro-reform leader to come forward and lead the movement. Such a leader, he said, could come from either the government or the military.

Nurcholis cited Philippines president Fidel Ramos, who was formerly a Marcos loyalist and chief of the army during his rule.

When a 'people power' movement against Marcos grew up in the mid-1980s, Ramos switched allegiance and threw his support behind Corazon Aquino.

"We need a person like Ramos," Nurcholis said.

Sarwono said there was still time for the government to respond to student demands, "which were moral issues and therefore difficult to argue against."

The key word reform showed that students wanted leaders to correct themselves, he pointed out.

Sarwono said there was still a reservoir of goodwill among students and they continued to believe and hope that leaders would prove capable of addressing the crisis.

The next few days and weeks will show which way these protests are heading.

Some student leaders say the protests will escalate as the movement forges a common vision for reform.

They are aware of public ambivalence toward their stance and believe they must sell their ideas for reform to the people if their support is to be counted on.

Reform, said Haris Rusli Moti, chairman of the Committee of People's Struggle for Reform (KPRP) and a student at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, is something we must fight for. "It will never be a gift."