Prospects of Habibie's presidential candidacy dim
JAKARTA (JP): President B.J. Habibie's hope of renomination took another set back on Thursday when his leading supporter, Akbar Tandjung, conceded that support, outside of the Golkar Party, was dimming.
Speaking after attending a rehearsal for Friday's induction of the new members of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), Akbar admitted that should opposition to Habibie's bid intensify, Golkar would have no choice other than to pick a new candidate.
"If the axis force remains solid, and so does the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), I don't think we have a good chance of winning", Akbar told journalists here Thursday.
"If this happens, we have to look for an alternative candidate".
He added that Golkar would discuss the issue in its upcoming executive meeting in mid-October.
His remarks came just a day after an alliance of the National Mandate Party (PAN) and Muslim-oriented parties, known as the axis force, went face-to-face with Habibie to "suggest" he withdraw from the presidential race.
PAN chief Amien Rais and Nahdlatul Ulama chief Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid led Wednesday's delegation to Habibie's residence.
The Assembly is due to convene its General Session here on Friday. Depending on the schedule, a new president could be elected in less than two weeks or by the end of October at the latest.
The Golkar Party finished second in the June 7 general election with 120 seats. PDI Perjuangan topped the polls winning 153 seats.
The National Awakening Party won 51 seats while the axis force has about 119 seats.
The 700-seat Assembly is comprised of 462 seats for those elected in the polls with 38 seats going to the military. There are also 135 regional representatives and 65 interest group representatives.
Akbar predicted that at the moment Golkar could muster around 200 votes, well short of the 351 majority required to win a presidential race.
To win, Habibie would have to sway votes from PDI Perjuangan's Megawati Soekarnoputri and the axis force's declared support for Abdurrahman Wahid.
Headache
Habibie's chances have severely suffered over the events of the past two days.
Minister of Justice/State Secretary Muladi disclosed on Thursday that Habibie was in utter confusion over the axis force's appeal for him to step down.
Muladi revealed that Habibie was particularly puzzled with the statement by Abdurrahman.
According to Muladi, during Wednesday's meeting, Abdurrahman told Habibie that he was asked by Amien Rais and Akbar Tandjung to persuade Habibie not to run.
However, Amien then claimed his appeal for the resignation was his own personal initiative. Akbar, who came to the meeting latter denied Abdurrahman's statement.
"According to Gus Dur, he received a message from Amien Rais and Akbar Tandjung, to ask Habibie to reconsider his candidacy," said Muladi.
"His (Habibie's) head is in confusion," said Muladi of the multiple denials as he burst into laughter.
Finished
Separately, political analysts surveying the upcoming presidential race also predicted that Habibie will not have enough support.
Political researcher Arbi Sanit bluntly claimed that Habibie's nomination was finished.
Arbi believed that Akbar would likely forsake Habibie's candidacy and bargain with the Golkar votes with other parties.
"Akbar will support other candidates which can provide him with the vice presidency seat," he told The Jakarta Post.
"Habibie's fall is assured while there are no other candidates from inside Golkar to replace him," told Arbi. "We're only waiting for that time to come".
Political analyst A.S. Hikam also told the Post that Habibie's policies did not breed trust among the people and that therefore doomed his candidacy.
Habibie is "already writing his own political obituary", he remarked.
Hikam said there were only two means left for Habibie to retain power.
"He can declare a state of emergency," he said, admitting it was unlikely to happen.
Another way was through political bribery.
"We must be very careful with the possibility of money in politics", said Hikam noting the wealth available.
Center for Strategic and International Studies researcher Kusnanto Anggoro said there were vague signs that several Golkar executives had given up on Habibie's nomination.
"Executives like Akbar Tandjung and Marzuki Darusman are willing to let Habibie go," he said.
From Kusnanto's point of view, Golkar would likely align with PDI Perjuangan as both parties have similar ideologies, especially concerning Indonesian unity and the amendment of the 1945 Constitution. (05/28)