Prolong drought may hamper RI food supply: FAO

Prolong drought may hamper RI food supply: FAO

JAKARTA (JP): The state of the food supply in Indonesia
continues to deteriorate and could worsen further as the August
rice harvest may fall below initial predictions, a United Nations
agency said yesterday.

A statement from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO) received here yesterday said a combination of the prolonged
drought and the intensification of the financial and economic
crisis have exacerbated the situation.

The value of the rupiah is now a mere one-sixth of its
precrisis value in July 1997, while inflation has soared to 46.55
percent for the first half of the year.

"The prices of food and other basic necessities have risen
sharply, amidst rapidly increasing unemployment, thus seriously
eroding the purchasing power of large segment of the population,"
the FAO said, adding that there is an "expectation that the
situation will worsen further as fears of unemployment rise".

"Official projections indicate that close to one-half of the
country's population may fall below the poverty line by the end
of 1998," it said. "A cause of serious concern is the large and
rapidly growing population groups facing acute food insecurity".

The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) reported last week that
the number of Indonesians living below the poverty line has
soared to 79.4 million, or about 40 percent of the population.

BPS chief Suwito Sugito said the number would increase to 95.8
million, or about 48 percent of the total population of 202
million by the end of this year because no economic recovery was
in sight.

The number of poor people in the country at the halfway point
this year is comparable to the 40.1 percent in 1976.

The current numbers are alarming when considering that in
1996, "only" 22.5 million, or 11.3 percent of the country's
population, were judged to be living below the poverty line, he
added.

The FAO noted yesterday that an FAO/WFP (World Food Program)
survey in March provisionally predicted that total rice
production this would be at 47.5 million metric tons.

This estimate was based on expectations that the second rice
harvest in August, accounting for one-third of total production,
would be average.

While climatic conditions have been generally favorable since
April, plantings have reportedly been reduced and higher costs of
fertilizers and pesticides along with distribution problems could
affect productivity.

"As a result the output of the secondary crop is expected to
be reduced. The current official forecast puts total rice
production in 1998 at 46.29 million tons," the FAO said.

According to the FAO, the international response to the
unprecedented food emergency here "has been generous".

"However given preliminary indications of a possible higher
rice import deficit and the financial limitations of the country,
substantial further international assistance will be required,"
the FAO said noting that one million tons of paddy has been
pledged by donor countries and that an international appeal to
help rehabilitate drought stricken areas had been made.

"It must however be stressed that notwithstanding the
potential positive impact of the above stated measures, prospects
for future food security in the country will depend heavily on
the health of the economy which would require large external
financing," the statement said. (mds)