Prolong drought may hamper RI food supply: FAO

JAKARTA (JP): The state of the food supply in Indonesia continues to deteriorate and could worsen further as the August rice harvest may fall below initial predictions, a United Nations agency said yesterday.

A statement from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) received here yesterday said a combination of the prolonged drought and the intensification of the financial and economic crisis have exacerbated the situation.

The value of the rupiah is now a mere one-sixth of its precrisis value in July 1997, while inflation has soared to 46.55 percent for the first half of the year.

"The prices of food and other basic necessities have risen sharply, amidst rapidly increasing unemployment, thus seriously eroding the purchasing power of large segment of the population," the FAO said, adding that there is an "expectation that the situation will worsen further as fears of unemployment rise".

"Official projections indicate that close to one-half of the country's population may fall below the poverty line by the end of 1998," it said. "A cause of serious concern is the large and rapidly growing population groups facing acute food insecurity".

The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) reported last week that the number of Indonesians living below the poverty line has soared to 79.4 million, or about 40 percent of the population.

BPS chief Suwito Sugito said the number would increase to 95.8 million, or about 48 percent of the total population of 202 million by the end of this year because no economic recovery was in sight.

The number of poor people in the country at the halfway point this year is comparable to the 40.1 percent in 1976.

The current numbers are alarming when considering that in 1996, "only" 22.5 million, or 11.3 percent of the country's population, were judged to be living below the poverty line, he added.

The FAO noted yesterday that an FAO/WFP (World Food Program) survey in March provisionally predicted that total rice production this would be at 47.5 million metric tons.

This estimate was based on expectations that the second rice harvest in August, accounting for one-third of total production, would be average.

While climatic conditions have been generally favorable since April, plantings have reportedly been reduced and higher costs of fertilizers and pesticides along with distribution problems could affect productivity.

"As a result the output of the secondary crop is expected to be reduced. The current official forecast puts total rice production in 1998 at 46.29 million tons," the FAO said.

According to the FAO, the international response to the unprecedented food emergency here "has been generous".

"However given preliminary indications of a possible higher rice import deficit and the financial limitations of the country, substantial further international assistance will be required," the FAO said noting that one million tons of paddy has been pledged by donor countries and that an international appeal to help rehabilitate drought stricken areas had been made.

"It must however be stressed that notwithstanding the potential positive impact of the above stated measures, prospects for future food security in the country will depend heavily on the health of the economy which would require large external financing," the statement said. (mds)