Primakov's truce plan sparks controversy

By Timothy Heritage

MOSCOW (Reuters): Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov has stirred a controversy that could threaten four months of political calm in Russia by making proposals for a truce between the Kremlin, government and parliament.

Primakov says the plan is intended to provide political stability, which would in turn increase hopes of economic recovery, as Russia holds parliamentary and presidential elections in the next 18 months.

But the plan, which would sideline President Boris Yeltsin, could also deepen instability because it has fueled speculation that Primakov did not consult the Kremlin leader over the plan and is positioning himself to run for the presidency in 2000.

Analysts say that even the suspicion of a rift between Yeltsin and Primakov risks driving a wedge between the two men and undermining the stability Primakov has provided as a premier acceptable to the Kremlin and its Communist foes in parliament.

"One way or another, the way the situation is developing shows that the period when Primakov appeased everyone is passing," the Kommersant business newspaper said on Thursday.

"And now the premier has to choose whose side he is on -- the Duma's (the lower house of parliament) or the president's. His fate from now on depends on that."

The prime minister, a former spymaster who has survived the huge political upheavals of the last decade in the Soviet Union and then Russia, is a shrewd politician who does not take uncalculated risks and plots his moves with care and skill.

Some commentators suggest the Russian media, often used by the businessmen who own them to try to wield political influence, may have deliberately stoked controversy to try to drive a wedge between Yeltsin and Primakov.

But the unexpected timing of his proposals, issued in a letter to State Duma Chairman Gennady Seleznyov as Yeltsin recovers from a stomach ulcer, has raised questions and the Kremlin's reaction has done little to dampen the speculation.

Under the truce, parliament would forgo its right to vote no- confidence in the government and drop impeachment proceedings against Yeltsin. He would in turn pledge not to dissolve the Duma or sack the cabinet until the presidential election.

Primakov also proposed that parliament should approve a law guaranteeing the president's immunity from arrest, trial or investigation, his financial security and other privileges after he steps down in 2000.

Primakov's own position would be strengthened. He has already taken over everyday running of the country because of Yeltsin's health problems and would stand in for him for three months until a new election if the president had to step down.

Primakov's ratings have grown since Yeltsin turned to him as a compromise prime minister in September after the previous government collapsed in an economic crisis and the president failed to reinstall ex-premier Viktor Chernomyrdin, an old ally.

Primakov's consensus politics, and his ability to work with Yeltsin while appeasing the Communists and the security forces, has provided a period of calm in which he is on the way to winning Duma approval for the 1999 budget.

But he has avoided taking risky economic decisions which could upset the balance or increase hardships for ordinary people, prompting critics to suggest Russia will sink further into economic crisis if decisions are not taken quickly.

Primakov, 69, denies he wants to become president. But in an article headlined "Is Yeltsin no longer the boss?", Sevodnya newspaper editor Mikhail Berger said: "It is quite clear from the letter (to Seleznyov) that Primakov has decided to take the helm of the state into his own hands."

The Kremlin has sent mixed signals. It has ruled out Yeltsin giving up any of his formal constitutional responsibilities, but also says there is no split between Yeltsin and Primakov.

"There is full mutual understanding between them. There are no frictions between them," Yeltsin's press secretary, Dmitry Yakushkin, told a news briefing on Wednesday.

Yeltsin himself has said nothing in public on the issue and his next move is now anxiously awaited.

After nearly eight years in power, and about to turn 68 in poor health, Yeltsin has already taken on a diminished role in ruling Russia. Primakov's plan could offer a way for him to take a back seat until he steps down in 2000.

Such a plan would provide a way to increase the prime minister's chances of becoming the next president. But Yeltsin has until now jealously guarded power and has never publicly endorsed Primakov as his chosen successor.

If Yeltsin feels slighted or threatened in any way by Primakov's proposals, he will face a decision whether to stick with him or fire him. He sacked Chernomyrdin as prime minister less than a year ago for being too ambitious.

Yeltsin is less likely to act so impulsively now, although such a move cannot be ruled out entirely. There is no obvious replacement acceptable both to Yeltsin and the Duma, and any showdown over the next prime minister could end in the Duma being dissolved and an early parliamentary election.