Price hike protests not a big threat to Megawati: Analysts
Price hike protests not a big threat to Megawati: Analysts
The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Mounting calls for President Megawati Soekarnoputri to step down
over the recent hikes in fuel, energy and telephone rates will
likely fizzle in the coming weeks as the political elite remains
intent on keeping her in power, analysts have said.
Students, labor unions and activists are planning mass
demonstrations over the next few days. Last week protesters
charged that the triple price hike policy was enough to call for
Megawati's resignation.
With thousands expected to turn out across the country in
similar protests, Megawati will face her first mass scale
demonstration against her leadership in the one-and-a-half years
she has been in power, analysts said.
However, unless the protests get out of control, they added,
they pose a minimal risk against Megawati's presidency.
"There won't be another case like Gus Dur," National Institute
of Sciences (LIPI) political analyst Syamsuddin Haris said on
Sunday.
"Our politicians are simply tired of a Gus Dur scenario," he
said, referring to the nickname of former president Abdurrahman
Wahid.
Lawmakers dismissed in 2001 Megawati's predecessor for
incompetence after months of haggling during a political process
that many still question its legitimacy.
Political parties might have since agreed on keeping Megawati
in power until the 2004 general election, analysts said.
Haris added that the loose coalition of the country's two
largest political parties would thwart political attempts to oust
her.
Megawati chairs the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle
(PDI Perjuangan), which won the 1999 election over the once
ruling Golkar party. Both parties occupy most of the seats at the
House of Representatives.
Even as other parties join in criticism against the price hike
policy, PDI Perjuangan will likely count on Golkar to face them,
said political analyst Arbi Sanit of the University of Indonesia.
"It's only one year until the general election and parties
will of course take advantage of the public outcry against the
policy," he said.
PDI Perjuangan is seen as being close in rank with Golkar due
to the latter's strong influence in politics after 30 years in
power.
And with a Supreme Court verdict on the graft case of its
chairman, Akbar Tandjung, still pending, Golkar is relying on
support from Megawati's party as well.
The symbiosis is not shared with other parties, such as the
National Mandate Party (PAN), chaired by People Consultative
Assembly Speaker (MPR) Amien Rais.
Amien has joined in the protest over the price hikes. He and
his party have also led critics against the recent sale of a
government stake in the telecommunications firm PT Indosat to a
Singaporean company.
But neither Amien nor his party will go as far as to demand
that Megawati resign, Arbi said. "For him the present government
means having continued access to political power. What's the use
(of unseating Megawati) if the elections are just a year away?"
Until the sale of Indosat and the price hikes, there had been
little criticism against the government, due in part to
attention focusing more on the threat of terrorism.
Brisk progress in the Oct. 12 Bali bombing investigation and a
historic peace accord signed with separatists in Aceh in December
have helped improve the government's image.
Arbi predicted that the planned mass demonstrations would
likely go unheeded by the government.
"Megawati will press ahead with the price hikes since there is
not enough pressure from legislators to cancel them," he said.
Fuel price hikes under Abdurrahman's presidency were more
risky because of shaky support from the legislature.
The mass riots that followed a decision to increase fuel
prices led to the ouster of then president Soeharto in 1998.
Although unpopular, the policy is necessary to trim the state
budget of excessive expenses while state revenue is scarce.
It is also part of the country's economic reforms program. And
signs of backtracking on the reforms commitment would risk the
government's ties with foreign lenders.
LIPI political analyst Ikrar Nusa Bhakti questioned why
legislators criticized the price hike policy when they earlier
agreed to it during consultations with the government.
"The way I see it, it's because the election is approaching so
parties want to look like they understand the people's
aspirations," Ikrar said.
He said the government should intensify its consultations with
the House before announcing unpopular policies like the sale of
state companies or the increase in utilities.