Price hike protests not a big threat to Megawati: Analysts

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Mounting calls for President Megawati Soekarnoputri to step down over the recent hikes in fuel, energy and telephone rates will likely fizzle in the coming weeks as the political elite remains intent on keeping her in power, analysts have said.

Students, labor unions and activists are planning mass demonstrations over the next few days. Last week protesters charged that the triple price hike policy was enough to call for Megawati's resignation.

With thousands expected to turn out across the country in similar protests, Megawati will face her first mass scale demonstration against her leadership in the one-and-a-half years she has been in power, analysts said.

However, unless the protests get out of control, they added, they pose a minimal risk against Megawati's presidency.

"There won't be another case like Gus Dur," National Institute of Sciences (LIPI) political analyst Syamsuddin Haris said on Sunday.

"Our politicians are simply tired of a Gus Dur scenario," he said, referring to the nickname of former president Abdurrahman Wahid.

Lawmakers dismissed in 2001 Megawati's predecessor for incompetence after months of haggling during a political process that many still question its legitimacy.

Political parties might have since agreed on keeping Megawati in power until the 2004 general election, analysts said.

Haris added that the loose coalition of the country's two largest political parties would thwart political attempts to oust her.

Megawati chairs the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), which won the 1999 election over the once ruling Golkar party. Both parties occupy most of the seats at the House of Representatives.

Even as other parties join in criticism against the price hike policy, PDI Perjuangan will likely count on Golkar to face them, said political analyst Arbi Sanit of the University of Indonesia.

"It's only one year until the general election and parties will of course take advantage of the public outcry against the policy," he said.

PDI Perjuangan is seen as being close in rank with Golkar due to the latter's strong influence in politics after 30 years in power.

And with a Supreme Court verdict on the graft case of its chairman, Akbar Tandjung, still pending, Golkar is relying on support from Megawati's party as well.

The symbiosis is not shared with other parties, such as the National Mandate Party (PAN), chaired by People Consultative Assembly Speaker (MPR) Amien Rais.

Amien has joined in the protest over the price hikes. He and his party have also led critics against the recent sale of a government stake in the telecommunications firm PT Indosat to a Singaporean company.

But neither Amien nor his party will go as far as to demand that Megawati resign, Arbi said. "For him the present government means having continued access to political power. What's the use (of unseating Megawati) if the elections are just a year away?"

Until the sale of Indosat and the price hikes, there had been little criticism against the government, due in part to attention focusing more on the threat of terrorism.

Brisk progress in the Oct. 12 Bali bombing investigation and a historic peace accord signed with separatists in Aceh in December have helped improve the government's image.

Arbi predicted that the planned mass demonstrations would likely go unheeded by the government.

"Megawati will press ahead with the price hikes since there is not enough pressure from legislators to cancel them," he said.

Fuel price hikes under Abdurrahman's presidency were more risky because of shaky support from the legislature.

The mass riots that followed a decision to increase fuel prices led to the ouster of then president Soeharto in 1998.

Although unpopular, the policy is necessary to trim the state budget of excessive expenses while state revenue is scarce.

It is also part of the country's economic reforms program. And signs of backtracking on the reforms commitment would risk the government's ties with foreign lenders.

LIPI political analyst Ikrar Nusa Bhakti questioned why legislators criticized the price hike policy when they earlier agreed to it during consultations with the government.

"The way I see it, it's because the election is approaching so parties want to look like they understand the people's aspirations," Ikrar said.

He said the government should intensify its consultations with the House before announcing unpopular policies like the sale of state companies or the increase in utilities.